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Long Play Updates

Acuity Brands - AYI - cls: 45.34 chg: -0.04 stop: 43.49

We're not seeing a lot of movement in AYI these days. At this time we would try and buy dips near $44.00-43.75 or wait for a breakout over $46.10. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart looks very bullish with a $62 target and a breakout over resistance.

Picked on February 5 at $45.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.16
Earnings Date 04/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 857 thousand


Expedia - EXPE - close: 24.49 chg: -0.25 stop; 23.39

EXPE is still seeing a little consolidation following the recent rally. We would still consider buying the stock in the $24.25-24.00 zone. Broken resistance near $24.00 should be new support. Our target will be the $27.00-27.50 zone.

Picked on February 11 at $24.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.24
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million


General Moly - GMO - close: 9.74 change: -0.23 stop: 9.18

GMO under performed the market almost all day long and closed with a 2.3% decline. Fortunately, we're still on the sidelines waiting for a breakout. We see potential resistance at $10.50 and its 50-dma so we are suggesting a trigger to buy GMO at $10.55. If triggered we have two targets. Our first target is the $12.40-12.50 zone near its December highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.90-14.00 range. We are starting with an aggressive (wide) stop. You may want to adjust yours. FYI: GMO will begin trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) beginning February 14th.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 665 thousand


Microsoft - MSFT - close: 28.34 change: +0.13 stop: 27.39

MSFT is still trying to rally. The stock managed a minor bounce today but technically shares continue to have a bearish trend of lower highs (short-term). We are still suggesting that readers can buy MSFT in the $27.50-29.00 zone but it would be nice to see some show of strength soon. MSFT is resting against two significant trendlines of support. We have two targets. Our four to six week target is the $31.85-32.00 range. We are considering a longer-term target in the $34 region.

Picked on February 10 at $28.56
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 90.7 million

Short Play Updates

Sovran Self Storage - SSS - cls: 39.27 chg: +0.87 stop: 40.05

SSS produced a 2.2% bounce today. Shares are nearing short-term resistance near $40 and its 50-dma. Unfortunately, we're running out of time. We plan to exit tomorrow (Wednesday) at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings.

Picked on February 06 at $37.90 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.37
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 170 thousand


Terra Nitrogen - TNH - cls: 125.95 chg: -1.65 stop: 137.26

All of the fertilizer stocks rallied this morning following bullish earnings comments from Monsanto (MON). Shares of TNH rallied to $135.25 before quickly running out of steam near its 10 and 50-dma. The bearish reversal only confirms the short-term trend of lower highs. TNH continues to under perform its peers. Currently we're suggesting readers cover their shorts (exit) at $117.50-115.00. Then we're suggesting readers buy the dip near its 200-dma in the $116.00-114.00 zone. We have two bullish targets on the bounce. One at $124 and then at $134. Once the bullish play begins our stop loss will be $109.45. Meanwhile the latest data puts short interest at 3% of the very (VERY) small float of 4.8 million share. A 3% short interest is not normally that worrisome but that is a very small float and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 07 at $129.40
Change since picked: - 3.45
Earnings Date 02/070/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 455 thousand


United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 72.47 chg: +1.06 stop: 74.05

This was not a good day for UPS bears. The stock broke through short-term resistance at $72.00 and its 10-dma. Shorts could see more pain tomorrow if the weekly oil inventories report comes in too bearish (higher inventories). UPS still has resistance with the 100-dma and exponential 200-dma near 72.85 (also today's high) and the simple 200-dma near $73.30. We would wait for a new decline under $71.50 before considering new shorts at this time. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 1.89
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million


Xerox Corp. - XRX - cls: 15.05 chg: -0.23 stop: 16.01

Shares of XRX slipped back to the $15 level losing 1.5% and under performing the broader market today. The move might also be considered a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We would suggest adding new shorts under $14.90. More conservative traders might want to consider a stop loss near $15.50. Our short-term target is the $13.55 mark. XRX's Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $10.50 target. The most recent data listed short interest at just 0.6% of the float.

Picked on February 07 at $14.95 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.10
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million

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