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Long Play Updates

Acuity Brands - AYI - cls: 45.92 chg: -1.18 stop: 43.49

AYI hit some profit taking after rising to resistance. Shares lost 2.5% albeit on low volume. Look for a bounce near $45.00 as a potential entry point. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart looks very bullish with a $62 target and a breakout over resistance.

Picked on February 5 at $45.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.42
Earnings Date 04/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 857 thousand

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Expedia - EXPE - close: 24.99 chg: -0.14 stop; 23.39

EXPE held up pretty well. Shares only lost 0.5% versus the S&P's 1.3% decline. If you are looking for a new entry point then look for a dip near $24.50. More conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop near $24.00. Our target will be the $27.00-27.50 zone.

Picked on February 11 at $24.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.74
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million

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General Moly - GMO - close: 9.98 change: -0.13 stop: 9.18

GMO is still trading sideways under short-term resistance near $10.25. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. We see potential resistance at $10.50 and its 50-dma so we are suggesting a trigger to buy GMO at $10.55. If triggered we have two targets. Our first target is the $12.40-12.50 zone near its December highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.90-14.00 range. We are starting with an aggressive (wide) stop. You may want to adjust yours.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 665 thousand

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Microsoft - MSFT - close: 28.50 change: -0.46 stop: 27.39

MSFT's first test of technical resistance at its 10-dma failed. This is bearish and it looks like the stock is headed back for the $28.00 level. We would try and buy the dip in the 28.20-27.90 zone but in reality we would consider bullish positions anywhere in the $27.50-29.50 region. We have two targets. Our four to six week target is the $31.85-32.00 range. We are considering a longer-term target in the $34 region.

Picked on February 10 at $28.56
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 90.7 million

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Varian Semi. - VSEA - close: 35.04 change: -0.83 stop: 33.45

Today's market-wide sell-off took some wind out of VSEA's sails. If the market continues lower then look for a dip or a bounce near $34.00 as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $39.75-40.00 range but we will need to watch for potential resistance at the exponential 200-dma and the simple 100-dma. The Point & Figure chart for VSEA has turned bullish and points to a $46 target.

Picked on February 13 at $35.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.71
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
 

Short Play Updates

Terra Nitrogen - TNH - cls: 127.34 chg: +0.98 stop: 137.26

The stock doesn't see many of them but it was actually a quiet day for TNH. Like most of the fertilizer stocks it out performed the broader indices. However, the trend is still bearish. We do not see any changes from our previous comments. Currently we're suggesting readers cover their shorts (exit) at $117.50-115.00. Then we're suggesting readers buy the dip near its 200-dma in the $116.00-114.00 zone. We have two bullish targets on the bounce. One at $124 and then at $134. Once the bullish play begins our stop loss will be $109.45. Meanwhile the latest data puts short interest at 3% of the very (VERY) small float of 4.8 million share. A 3% short interest is not normally that worrisome but that is a very small float and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 07 at $129.40
Change since picked: - 2.06
Earnings Date 02/070/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 455 thousand

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United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 72.34 chg: -1.17 stop: 74.05

Another strong rally for crude oil sent the transports lower. UPS lost 1.59%. This looks like a new entry point for shorts but readers might want to wait for a breakdown under $72.00 first. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 1.76
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million

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Xerox Corp. - XRX - cls: 15.01 chg: -0.48 stop: 16.01

XRX gave back all of yesterday's gains with a 3% sell-off today. The stock was flirting with another breakdown under $15.00 (and $14.90) late this afternoon. We've been suggesting that a new low under $14.90 could be used as an entry point for shorts. Our short-term target is the $13.55 mark. XRX's Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $10.50 target. The most recent data listed short interest at just 0.6% of the float.

Picked on February 07 at $14.95 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.06
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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