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Long Play Updates

Acuity Brands - AYI - cls: 46.00 chg: -0.42 stop: 43.49

Shares of AYI continue to trade sideways under resistance at its exponential 200-dma. We would hesitate to launch new positions at this time although a bounce near $45.00 could be tempting. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart looks very bullish with a $62 target and a breakout over resistance.

Picked on February 5 at $45.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.50
Earnings Date 04/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 857 thousand

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Expedia - EXPE - close: 25.65 chg: +0.06 stop; 23.75 *new*

EXPE continued to rally in spite of the market's reversal. Granted, EXPE did pare its gains late this afternoon. Look for a dip and bounce near $25.00 as a new entry point to consider longs. We are adjusting our stop loss to $23.75. Our target is the $27.00-27.50 zone.

Picked on February 11 at $24.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.40
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million

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FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 55.56 chg: +0.25 stop: 53.45

FMC actually gapped open above our suggested entry point. Shares opened at $56.17, which would have triggered our play since we were suggesting entries at $56.01. Unfortunately, FMC was unable to maintain its early gains. At this point, while we would consider new positions here, we would prefer to be patient and look for a dip into the $54.00-55.00 region as a possible entry. We have two targets. Our short-term target is the $59.75-60.00 zone. Ours second, longer-term target is the $64.00-65.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout and a $66 target.

Picked on February 19 at $56.17 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: - 0.45
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 718 thousand

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General Moly - GMO - close: 10.09 change: +0.14 stop: 9.18

Investors. On your mark. Get set.... The consolidation in shares of GMO continues to look bullish and the stock appears poised to breakout higher at any day. More nimble or aggressive traders could jump in now or around $10.25. We still see some resistance at the 50-dma (10.49) so we're suggesting readers use a trigger at $10.55. If triggered we have two targets. Our first target is the $12.40-12.50 zone near its December highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.90-14.00 range. We are starting with an aggressive (wide) stop. FYI: In the news today GMO announced that it had completed its documentation on its deal with POSCO to open a joint venture in the Mt. Hope mine in central Nevada.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 665 thousand

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Microsoft - MSFT - close: 28.17 change: -0.14 stop: 27.39

The bulls keep trying but MSFT is struggling to build on its gains. It is possible that concerns over the YHOO deal are weighing on the stock price. Hopefully Hewlett-Packard's better than expected earnings tonight after the closing bell will have a positive impact on shares of MSFT tomorrow. Remember, part of our risk is a negative reaction in the stock price if MSFT raises its bid for YHOO. We would remain buyers here in the $27.50-29.50 region. We have two targets. Our four to six week target is the $31.85-32.00 range. We are considering a longer-term target in the $34 region.

Picked on February 10 at $28.56
Change since picked: - 0.28
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 90.7 million

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Time Warner - TWX - close: 16.64 chg: -0.06 stop 15.45

Today's minor pull back in TWX looks like another entry point to buy the stock. If you are the really patient type then look for a dip near $16.30ish. There is potential technical resistance at the 100-dma near $17.00 so don't be surprised to see a pull back once that level is reached. Our target is the $17.90-18.00 range. We're using a stop loss at $15.45. More conservative traders may want to place their stop closer to $16.00.

Picked on February 17 at $16.70
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 24.5 million
 

Short Play Updates

Brunswick - BC - close: 16.74 chg: -0.29 stop: 18.31

BC traded sideways again for most of the session but finally succumbed to the market's afternoon weakness. The stock broke lower and hit $16.64 before paring its losses. We were suggesting a trigger for shorts a $16.75. Our target is the $15.05-14.55 zone near its January lows. The P&F chart is bearish with an $8.00 target. FYI: We are at risk for a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 11.2% of the 87.8 million-share float. That is about 7 days worth of short interest. The stock has already slipped a lot from last week's high, which is why we have a relatively wide (aggressive) stop loss.

Picked on February 19 at $16.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.01
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million

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Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 29.47 chg: -0.31 stop: 31.15

CTAS slipped to another new multi-year low after failing at its 10-dma this morning. We remain bearish and could continue to suggest shorts. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).

Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.28
Earnings Date 03/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Dean Foods - DF - close: 24.46 chg: -0.29 stop: 25.05

DF continues to look weak. The stock lost 1.1% and hit $24.16 midday. We want to see a breakdown under $24.00. Should DF breakdown under the $24.00 mark it could freefall to the $20.00 level. We are suggesting a trigger to short it at $23.95. If triggered our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: A move under $24.00 would produce a new quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal. Our biggest risk is a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.7% of the 127 million-share float or about 9 days worth of short interest, which is significant.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Home Depot - HD - close: 27.31 chg: -0.21 stop: 29.16

HD produced another failed rally at its trendline of lower highs and its 10-dma. This looks like another entry point for shorts or on a drop below $27.00. Our target is the $25.10-25.00 zone. You could aim for $24.00. The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $21 target. FYI: We don't have much time. There is less than two full weeks before HD reports earnings. We do not want to hold over the announcement. The most recent data puts short interest at 4.3% of the 1.67 billion-share float. That happens to be about 4 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 15 at $27.24 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.07
Earnings Date 02/26/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.0 million

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PACCAR - PCAR - close: 42.96 change: +0.27 stop: 44.05

PCAR produced a minor bounce today. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We are suggesting a trigger to short PCAR at $41.95. If triggered our target is the $38.30-38.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $26 target but it does show support near $38.00. FYI: On the daily chart the intraday low for January 23rd looks like $41.58 but that appears to be a bad tick. On the chart the 200-week moving average is nearing $38.20.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 18.10 chg: -0.19 stop: 18.76

SBUX is inching closer and closer to a breakdown under support. A breakdown from here and it could be a straight shot to $15.00. Unfortunately, the intraday low on January 22nd was $17.66. We're suggesting readers short SBUX with a trigger to open positions at $17.49. If triggered our target is the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower since the P&F chart already points to a $3.00 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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Terra Nitrogen - TNH - cls: 125.73 chg: +1.44 stop: 135.05*new*

A Bloomberg article out today carried some very bullish comments from POT's CEO. Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) is a rival of TNH's. POT's management said that rising demand in India and China will fuel industry growth for years to come. TNH did manage a bounce but it continues to under perform its peers. The trend in TNH still looks bearish and today marked a failed rally near $130. However, we are growing a bit uncomfortable with bearish positions on TNH given that stocks in the industry are seeing new highs. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $130. We're not suggesting new shorts. Currently we're suggesting readers cover their shorts (exit) at $117.50-115.00. Then we're suggesting readers buy the dip near its 200-dma in the $116.00-114.00 zone. We have two bullish targets on the bounce. One at $129 and then at $139, which is an adjustment to our previous targets. Once the bullish play begins our stop loss will be $109.45. Meanwhile the latest data puts short interest at 3% of the very (VERY) small float of 4.8 million share. A 3% short interest is not normally that worrisome but that is a very small float and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 07 at $129.40
Change since picked: - 3.67
Earnings Date 02/070/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 455 thousand

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United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 72.23 chg: -0.19 stop: 74.05

Record high oil today should have been a bigger drag on shares of UPS. The stock lost a minor 0.2% and was recovering from its lows. Look for a new drop under $71.50 before considering new shorts. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 1.65
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million

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Xerox Corp. - XRX - cls: 15.03 chg: +0.11 stop: 16.01

XRX essentially spent the session trading sideways but eventually closed up 0.7%. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. We are seriously considering an adjustment to our stop loss to $15.55 but we'll leave it at $16.01 for now. Our short-term target is the $13.55 mark. XRX's Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $10.50 target. The most recent data listed short interest at just 0.6% of the float. FYI: This morning XRX announced a cash dividend of 4.25 cents per share payable on April 30th to shareholders of record on March 31st.

Picked on February 07 at $14.95 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.08
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

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Closed Short Plays

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