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Long Play Updates

Acuity Brands - AYI - cls: 47.71 chg: +1.71 stop: 43.49

AYI displayed some strength today. Shares rallied most of the session and posted a 3.7% gain. Furthermore the stock broke through short-term resistance near $47.50 and its exponential 200-dma. We are adding a second target. Our first target is the $49.50-50.00 zone. We do expect AYI to find resistance near $50 and its 200-dma but only for a short while. AYI has relatively high short interest and could see a short squeeze once the bulls start flexing their muscles. Our second target is the $54.00-55.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart looks very bullish with a $62 target and a breakout over resistance.

Picked on February 5 at $45.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.21
Earnings Date 04/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 857 thousand

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Expedia - EXPE - close: 25.41 chg: -0.24 stop; 23.75

EXPE hit some profit taking this morning but investors bought the dip near $24.50 and its rising 10-dma. Readers could use this bounce as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $27.00-27.50 zone.

Picked on February 11 at $24.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.16
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million

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FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 56.15 chg: +0.59 stop: 53.45

FMC also saw a sharp, intraday rebound from its lows. The move looks like another entry point to buy the stock. Yesterday we had suggested waiting for a dip into the $54.00-55.00 range and the low today was $54.59. We have two targets. Our short-term target is the $59.75-60.00 zone. Ours second, longer-term target is the $64.00-65.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout and a $66 target.

Picked on February 19 at $56.17 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 718 thousand

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Forest Labs - FRX - close: 41.08 change: -0.32 stop: 39.65

FRX continues to bounce sideways in its short-term trading range. We are waiting for a breakout over $42.00. We're suggesting a trigger at $42.15. If triggered at $42.15 our target is the $47.50-50.00 range. We do expect resistance at $45.00. This is not going to be a quick trade but a more intermediate, multi-week trade. We will try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $39.65. However, we always consider trading anything biotech related as higher-risk. One never knows when a headline will come out about some FDA decision, or important clinical trial that could send the stock gapping one direction or the other.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million

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General Moly - GMO - close: 10.96 change: +0.87 stop: 9.18

Potential short squeeze in progress here. GMO finally delivered a rally for us as we patiently waited for the breakout. Shares shot through resistance at $10.25, $10.50 and its 50-dma with today's 8.6% gain. We have two targets. Our first target is the $12.40-12.50 zone near its December highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.90-14.00 range. We are starting with an aggressive (wide) stop. FYI: GMO has relatively high short interest at 7.7% of the 33.7 million-share float, which is about 7 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 20 at $10.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.41
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 665 thousand

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Microsoft - MSFT - close: 28.22 change: +0.05 stop: 27.39

MSFT continues to languish near support around $28.00. We would suggest using today's pull back as another entry point for bullish positions. We would remain buyers here in the $27.50-29.50 region. We have two targets. Our four to six week target is the $31.85-32.00 range. We are considering a longer-term target in the $34 region.

Picked on February 10 at $28.56
Change since picked: - 0.23
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 90.7 million

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Time Warner - TWX - close: 16.49 chg: -0.15 stop 15.45

Today's dip in TWX looks like another bullish entry point but more conservative traders may want to wait for signs of a bounce tomorrow before jumping in. Yesterday we suggested looking for a dip near $16.30 and the intraday low today just happened to be $16.30. Our target is the $17.90-18.00 range. We're using a stop loss at $15.45. More conservative traders may want to place their stop closer to $16.00.

Picked on February 17 at $16.70
Change since picked: - 0.21
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 24.5 million
 

Short Play Updates

Brunswick - BC - close: 17.10 chg: +0.36 stop: 18.31

BC erased yesterday's losses with a 2.1% gain today. A little oversold bounce isn't a big worry but watch for a failed rally in the $17.50-18.00 zone before considering new shorts. Our target is the $15.05-14.55 zone near its January lows. The P&F chart is bearish with an $8.00 target. FYI: We are at risk for a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 11.2% of the 87.8 million-share float. That is about 7 days worth of short interest. The stock has already slipped a lot from last week's high, which is why we have a relatively wide (aggressive) stop loss.

Picked on February 19 at $16.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.35
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million

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Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 30.00 chg: +0.53 stop: 31.15

CTAS also erased yesterday's decline but the rebound stalled near $30.00, which should be short-term resistance. Another failed rally in the $30-31 zone can be used as a new entry point for shorts. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).

Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 03/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million


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Dean Foods - DF - close: 24.22 chg: -0.24 stop: 25.05

Warning! DF may have just produced a bear trap. The stock broke down under what should have been very significant support at $24.00 this morning. This is the first time DF traded under $24.00 since August 2002. Yet shares managed a rebound from its lows of $23.87. We were suggesting a trigger for shorts at $23.95. The play is now open. However, now we're faced with a decent chance of a short squeeze since DF didn't break down and stay down. We would not consider new shorts until we saw a new relative low. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: The move under $24.00 has produced a new quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal. The P&F chart target is $18.00. Our biggest risk is a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.7% of the 127 million-share float or about 9 days worth of short interest, which is significant.

Picked on February 20 at $23.95 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.27
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Home Depot - HD - close: 27.72 chg: +0.41 stop: 29.16

HD has bounced back toward what should be resistance near $28.00 and its 10-dma. A breakout here would be bad news for the bears. Our target is the $25.10-25.00 zone. You could aim for $24.00. The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $21 target. FYI: We don't have much time. HD reports earnings on February 26th. We do not want to hold over the announcement. The most recent data puts short interest at 4.3% of the 1.67 billion-share float. That happens to be about 4 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 15 at $27.24 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.48
Earnings Date 02/26/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.0 million

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PACCAR - PCAR - close: 44.53 change: +1.57 stop: 44.05

We are still waiting for a breakdown under support. We are suggesting a trigger to short PCAR at $41.95. If triggered our target is the $38.30-38.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $26 target but it does show support near $38.00. FYI: On the daily chart the intraday low for January 23rd looks like $41.58 but that appears to be a bad tick. On the chart the 200-week moving average is nearing $38.20.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 18.26 chg: +0.16 stop: 18.76

There is no change here. We're suggesting readers short SBUX with a trigger to open positions at $17.49. If triggered our target is the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower since the P&F chart already points to a $3.00 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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Terra Nitrogen - TNH - cls: 123.85 chg: -1.88 stop: 135.05

TNH continues to under perform its peers in the fertilizer industry. The rest of the group is trading near new highs. We are growing a bit uncomfortable with bearish positions on TNH given that stocks in the industry are seeing new highs. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $130. We're not suggesting new shorts. Currently we're suggesting readers cover their shorts (exit) at $117.50-115.00. Then we're suggesting readers buy the dip near its 200-dma in the $116.00-114.00 zone. We have two bullish targets on the bounce. One at $129 and then at $139, which is an adjustment to our previous targets. Once the bullish play begins our stop loss will be $109.45. Meanwhile the latest data puts short interest at 3% of the very (VERY) small float of 4.8 million share. A 3% short interest is not normally that worrisome but that is a very small float and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 07 at $129.40
Change since picked: - 3.67
Earnings Date 02/070/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 455 thousand

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United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 72.64 chg: +0.41 stop: 74.05

UPS bounced but the stock has been trading sideways the last few days. Look for a new drop under $71.50 before considering new shorts. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 2.06
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million

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Xerox Corp. - XRX - cls: 15.18 chg: +0.15 stop: 16.01

We do not see any changes from our previous comments. We are seriously considering an adjustment to our stop loss to $15.55 but we'll leave it at $16.01 for now. Our short-term target is the $13.55 mark. XRX's Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $10.50 target. The most recent data listed short interest at just 0.6% of the float.

Picked on February 07 at $14.95 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.23
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

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Closed Short Plays

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