Option Investor
Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version

Long Play Updates

Acuity Brands - AYI - cls: 47.17 chg: -0.54 stop: 43.49

Profit taking swept across all sectors of the market today. AYI was no exception and the stock lost 1.1% closing back under recent resistance. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our first target is the $49.50-50.00 zone. We do expect AYI to find resistance near $50 and its 200-dma but only for a short while. AYI has relatively high short interest and could see a short squeeze once the bulls start flexing their muscles. Our second target is the $54.00-55.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart looks very bullish with a $62 target and a breakout over resistance.

Picked on February 5 at $45.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.67
Earnings Date 04/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 857 thousand

---

Expedia - EXPE - close: 24.36 chg: -1.05 stop; 23.85 *new*

The trading in EXPE was very bearish. The stock lost more than 4% and closed under what should have been support near $25.00, and its 10-dma. This looks very negative and more conservative traders may want to consider an early exit right here! We are raising our stop loss to $23.85. We're not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our target is the $27.00-27.50 zone.

Picked on February 11 at $24.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.11
Earnings Date 02/07/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million

---

FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 55.75 chg: -0.40 stop: 53.45

FMC's rally has stalled thanks to the market downturn. Readers might get another chance to buy the stock in the $54.00-55.00 zone sooner than expected. We are raising our stop loss to $53.70, just under the February 15th low. We have two targets. Our short-term target is the $59.75-60.00 zone. Ours second, longer-term target is the $64.00-65.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout and a $66 target.

Picked on February 19 at $56.17 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 718 thousand

---

Forest Labs - FRX - close: 40.84 change: -0.24 stop: 39.65

We don't see any changes from our previous comments on FRX. The stock continues to churn sideways. We are waiting for a breakout over $42.00. We're suggesting a trigger at $42.15. If triggered at $42.15 our target is the $47.50-50.00 range. We do expect resistance at $45.00. This is not going to be a quick trade but a more intermediate, multi-week trade. We will try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $39.65. However, we always consider trading anything biotech related as higher-risk. One never knows when a headline will come out about some FDA decision, or important clinical trial that could send the stock gapping one direction or the other.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million

---

General Moly - GMO - close: 11.45 change: +0.49 stop: 9.18

GMO continues to show relative strength with a 4.4% gain and on above average volume. Odds are good this strength is being fueled by short covering. We are not suggesting new positions at current levels. We have two targets. Our first target is the $12.40-12.50 zone near its December highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.90-14.00 range. We are starting with an aggressive (wide) stop. FYI: GMO has relatively high short interest at 7.7% of the 33.7 million-share float, which is about 7 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 20 at $10.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.90
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 665 thousand

---

Microsoft - MSFT - close: 28.10 change: -0.12 stop: 27.39

MSFT was initially higher this morning as investors speculated on the company's mysterious announcement late this morning. That announcement was about MSFT's decision to "open" up some of their systems for better interoperability. The market and the industry were skeptical of the announcement and shares drifted back toward support near $28.00. We would remain buyers here in the $27.50-29.50 region. However, if the market's major averages down break downward MSFT will not be immune and will probably break support. You have to play with a stop! We have two targets. Our four to six week target is the $31.85-32.00 range. We are considering a longer-term target in the $34 region.

Picked on February 10 at $28.56
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 90.7 million

---

Time Warner - TWX - close: 16.32 chg: -0.17 stop 15.45

Shares of TWX dipped toward short-term support again - this time it was the rising 10-dma. A bounce from here would be a new bullish entry point. However, if the markets continue lower then TWX may test $16.00 soon. We need to be patient. Our target is the $17.90-18.00 range. We're using a stop loss at $15.45. More conservative traders may want to place their stop closer to $16.00.

Picked on February 17 at $16.70
Change since picked: - 0.38
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 24.5 million
 

Short Play Updates

Brunswick - BC - close: 16.39 chg: -0.71 stop: 18.31

BC's early morning rally attempt failed at $17.20 and the stock ended the session with a 4.1% loss and a new relative low. This looks like another entry point for shorts. Our target is the $15.05-14.55 zone near its January lows. The P&F chart is bearish with an $8.00 target. FYI: We are at risk for a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 11.2% of the 87.8 million-share float. That is about 7 days worth of short interest. The stock has already slipped a lot from last week's high, which is why we have a relatively wide (aggressive) stop loss.

Picked on February 19 at $16.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.36
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million

---

Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 29.23 chg: -0.77 stop: 31.15

The rebound in CTAS stalled out at the 10-dma and shares reversed lower. This looks like another entry point for the bears. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).

Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.52
Earnings Date 03/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

---

Dean Foods - DF - close: 23.89 chg: -0.33 stop: 25.05

We were lucky with DF. Yesterday had the markings of a bear trap. Everything looked set for a short squeeze. Fortunately, that didn't happen and DF sank back to a new relative (multi-year) low. Today's move and close under $24.00 looks like a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: The move under $24.00 has produced a new quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal. The P&F chart target is $18.00. Our biggest risk is a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.7% of the 127 million-share float or about 9 days worth of short interest, which is significant.

Picked on February 20 at $23.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

---

Home Depot - HD - close: 27.39 chg: -0.33 stop: 29.16

HD's rebound attempt failed marking another lower high in its short-term trend of lower highs. This is another entry point for shorts. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops a bit. Our target is the $25.10-25.00 zone. You could aim for $24.00. The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $21 target. FYI: We don't have much time. HD reports earnings on February 26th. We do not want to hold over the announcement. The most recent data puts short interest at 4.3% of the 1.67 billion-share float. That happens to be about 4 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 15 at $27.24 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 02/26/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.0 million

---

PACCAR - PCAR - close: 43.37 change: -1.16 stop: 44.05

PCAR displayed some volatility this morning. Shares spiked toward $46, which was near last week's intraday high. The rally quickly ran out of fuel and PCAR lost 2.5% on the session. We are still waiting for a breakdown under support. We are suggesting a trigger to short PCAR at $41.95. If triggered our target is the $38.30-38.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $26 target but it does show support near $38.00. FYI: On the daily chart the intraday low for January 23rd looks like $41.58 but that appears to be a bad tick. On the chart the 200-week moving average is nearing $38.20.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million

---

Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.83 chg: -0.43 stop: 18.76

We heard at least one analyst calling this a bottom in shares of SBUX but that remains to be seen at this time. The trend is very bearish and today's close under support at $18.00 is very bearish. More aggressive traders may want to jump in with shorts right here. We are waiting. We're suggesting readers short SBUX with a trigger to open positions at $17.49. If triggered our target is the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower since the P&F chart already points to a $3.00 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

---

Terra Nitrogen - TNH - cls: 128.77 chg: +4.92 stop: 135.05

TNH definitely bucked the trend today and added almost 4%. We couldn't see any stock-specific news to account for the strength. Most of TNH's peers were trading lower. Very short-term it looks like the stock is setting up for a breakout higher above $130. More conservative traders might want to consider adjusting their stop loss toward the $130 region. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. However, a move over $135 (or better $140) would look like a bullish entry point. Currently we're suggesting readers cover their shorts (exit) at $117.50-115.00. Then we're suggesting readers buy the dip near its 200-dma in the $116.00-114.00 zone. We have two bullish targets on the bounce. One at $129 and then at $139, which is an adjustment to our previous targets. Once the bullish play begins our stop loss will be $109.45. Meanwhile the latest data puts short interest at 3% of the very (VERY) small float of 4.8 million share. A 3% short interest is not normally that worrisome but that is a very small float and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 07 at $129.40
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 02/070/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 455 thousand

---

United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 71.90 chg: -0.74 stop: 74.05

Still going nowhere fast. UPS loses 1% after reversing at the $73.00 level. Look for a new drop under $71.50 before considering new shorts. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 1.32
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million

---

Xerox Corp. - XRX - cls: 14.75 chg: -0.43 stop: 16.01

XRX produced another failed rally and lower high under its 50-dma. Plus, shares produced what appear to be a bearish engulfing (reversal) pattern. The new low looks like another entry point for shorts. Our short-term target is the $13.55 mark. XRX's Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $10.50 target. The most recent data listed short interest at just 0.6% of the float.

Picked on February 07 at $14.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

Premier Investor Play Update Archives