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Long Play Updates

Acuity Brands - AYI - cls: 46.04 chg: -0.44 stop: 44.59

Uh-oh! AYI displayed relative weakness today, which is not a great sign for the up trend. Volume was above average on today's decline, which is another cautionary signal. More conservative traders may want to exit early now or tighten their stop toward this afternoon's low near $44.92. We are not suggesting new bullish positions. Our first target is the $49.50-50.00 zone. The $50 level will probably be round-number resistance compounded by the 200-dma still overhead. We would suggest exiting the majority of your position here. Our second, more aggressive target is the $54.00-55.00 range.

Picked on February 5 at $45.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.54
Earnings Date 04/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 857 thousand

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Cypress Semiconductor - CY - close: 22.71 chg: +0.29 stop: 21.75

CY managed a 1.2% bounce but the stock failed to breakout past its short-term trend of lower highs. We remain on the sidelines. We're suggesting a trigger to buy CY at $23.51. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a base of support along its rising trendline of support and a $33 upside target. If we are triggered at $23.51 our short-term target is the $27.00-27.50 range near its 200-dma. We'll have to watch out for potential resistance at its descending 50-dma.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 58.38 chg: +1.93 stop: 53.70

Almost anything related to agriculture and fertilizer was showing a lot of strength today. Shares of FMC posted a 3.4% gain and on above average volume, which is normally a good sign. We have two targets. Our short-term target is the $59.75-60.00 zone. Ours second, longer-term target is the $64.00-65.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout and a $66 target.

Picked on February 19 at $56.17 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: + 2.21
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 718 thousand

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Forest Labs - FRX - close: 41.73 change: +0.65 stop: 39.65

Bullish reversal alert! Shares of FRX were actually downgraded by Goldman Sachs this morning but the news seems to have backfired. The GS analyst cut FRX to a "sell" and a $43 price target. Shares of FRX dipped to support near $40.00 and quickly vaulted back. The move today is a big bullish engulfing candlestick pattern and a breakout over its 200-dma. Aggressive traders may want to consider long positions now. We are sticking with our plan and waiting for a breakout over resistance near $42.00. We're suggesting a trigger at $42.15. If triggered at $42.15 our target is the $47.50-50.00 range. We do expect resistance at $45.00. This is not going to be a quick trade but a more intermediate, multi-week trade. We will try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $39.65. However, we always consider trading anything biotech related as higher-risk. One never knows when a headline will come out about some FDA decision, or important clinical trial that could send the stock gapping one direction or the other.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million

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General Moly - GMO - close: 11.73 change: +0.08 stop: 9.49

Is it time for some profit taking in GMO? The stock rallied to $11.98 and then began to fade into the afternoon. Shares are short-term overbought following the four-day rally. If you're looking for a new entry point wait for a bounce near $11.00 or the 50-dma near $10.50. More conservative traders might want to do a little profit taking here and jump back in on a dip near 11.00-10.50. We have two targets. Our first target is the $12.40-12.50 zone near its December highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.90-14.00 range. We are starting with an aggressive (wide) stop. FYI: GMO has relatively high short interest at 7.7% of the 33.7 million-share float, which is about 7 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 20 at $10.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.18
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 665 thousand

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Time Warner - TWX - close: 16.57 chg: +0.08 stop 15.45

TWX turned in a decent day. The stock under performed the broader market but the action was bullish. We would use today's bullish engulfing candlestick pattern (albeit a small one) as a new entry point to buy the stock. Our target is the $17.90-18.00 range. We're using a stop loss at $15.45. More conservative traders may want to place their stop closer to $16.00.

Picked on February 17 at $16.70
Change since picked: + 0.13
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 24.5 million
 

Short Play Updates

Brunswick - BC - close: 16.89 chg: +0.40 stop: 18.31

Market strength helped BC bounce back toward resistance near $17.00 and its 50-dma. Look for a failed rally here as a new entry point for shorts. More conservative traders might want to think about inching their stops down a little. Our target is the $15.05-14.55 zone near its January lows. The P&F chart is bearish with an $8.00 target. FYI: We are at risk for a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 11.2% of the 87.8 million-share float. That is about 7 days worth of short interest. The stock has already slipped a lot from last week's high, which is why we have a relatively wide (aggressive) stop loss.

Picked on February 19 at $16.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million

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Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 30.03 chg: +0.23 stop: 31.15

CTAS is also bouncing thanks to a positive market environment the last two days. Today's close over its 1-dma and the $30.00 mark is technically bullish. More conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop in the $29.75-29.85 zone. We are leaving our stop loss at $31.15. Look for a failed rally near $31 as a potential entry point. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).

Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.28
Earnings Date 03/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Dean Foods - DF - close: 23.66 chg: -0.77 stop: 25.05

Once again we are surprised by the action in DF. Shares were poised to rally and we were at risk for a short squeeze. Instead the stock reversed course this morning and sank to new multi-year lows. DF posted a 3.1% loss by day's end. This looks like another potential entry point for shorts. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: The move under $24.00 has produced a new quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal. The P&F chart target is $18.00. Our biggest risk is a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.7% of the 127 million-share float or about 9 days worth of short interest, which is significant.

Picked on February 20 at $23.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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PACCAR - PCAR - close: 45.11 change: +1.61 stop: 44.05

We are still sitting on the sidelines with PCAR. The stock continues to bounce and could soon be challenging its short-term trend of lower highs. It has a while to go yet before it challenges the longer-term trend of lower highs. We're waiting for a breakdown under support near $42.00. We are suggesting a trigger to short PCAR at $41.95. If triggered our target is the $38.30-38.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $26 target but it does show support near $38.00. FYI: On the daily chart the intraday low for January 23rd looks like $41.58 but that appears to be a bad tick. On the chart the 200-week moving average is nearing $38.20.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 18.50 chg: +0.25 stop: 18.76

SBUX is trying to rebound but shares still look mired in a very entrenched bearish trend. Aggressive traders might want to consider shorts on a failed rally in the $18.85-19.00 zone. We are waiting for a new relative low. We're suggesting readers short SBUX with a trigger to open positions at $17.49. If triggered our target is the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower since the P&F chart already points to a $3.00 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - close: 26.31 change: +0.66 stop: 26.15

SNDK spiked higher this morning but the rally stalled as investors paused to digest the company's comments from its analyst day today. A move over $28.00 might signal an end to this bearish trend (or at least a decent bottom) and we could be tempted to review the stock as a bullish candidate. However, until then the trend is very bearish. We are waiting for a new relative low. We are suggesting that readers short SNDK under $24.00 with a trigger at $23.99. The January 23rd low was $24.29. If we are triggered at $23.99 our target is the $20.15-20.00 zone. The $20.00 level has been significant support in the past.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.9 million

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United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 72.48 chg: +0.59 stop: 74.05

UPS is actually displaying a lot of conflicting signals in its technical picture. There is a mix of bullish and bearish signals as the stock consolidates under resistance. If the market breaks out higher we would expect UPS to follow - whether it makes sense or not. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 1.90
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million

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Xerox Corp. - XRX - cls: 15.04 chg: +0.17 stop: 15.66 *new*

XRX continues to oscillate sideways inside a bearish trend of lower highs and lower lows. Another failed rally under its 50-dma ($15.20) could be used as another entry point for shorts. Our short-term target is the $13.55 mark. XRX's Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $10.50 target. The most recent data listed short interest at just 0.6% of the float. FYI: XRX is due to present at the Goldman Sachs conference on Thursday.

Picked on February 07 at $14.95 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Terra Nitrogen - TNH - cls: 139.72 chg: +11.89 stop: 135.05

Shares of TNH hit our stop loss at $135.05. After the first hour of trading shares of TNH suddenly exploded higher and broke through multiple levels of short-term resistance. The entire agriculture-fertilizer sector was on fire today. TNH had been under performing its peers the last few weeks but now it looks like it's playing catch up. It has been our plan to short TNH toward rising support at its 200-dma and then go long. Given today's move readers will want to strongly consider buying the stock above the $140.00 to $142.00 levels and aim for the $160-165 zone. We are going to wait and see what happens tomorrow. If TNH dips and starts to bounce tomorrow we will consider adding it as a new bullish candidate!

Picked on February 07 at $129.40 *stopped out 135.05
Change since picked: +10.32
Earnings Date 02/070/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 455 thousand
 

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