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Long Play Updates

Acuity Brands - AYI - cls: 46.69 chg: +0.65 stop: 44.59

AYI managed a bounce but we suggest readers remain on the defensive. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop toward Monday afternoon's low near $44.92. We are not suggesting new bullish positions. Our first target is the $49.50-50.00 zone. The $50 level will probably be round-number resistance compounded by the 200-dma still overhead. We would suggest exiting the majority of your position here. Our second, more aggressive target is the $54.00-55.00 range.

Picked on February 5 at $45.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.19
Earnings Date 04/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 857 thousand

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Cypress Semiconductor - CY - close: 22.82 chg: +0.11 stop: 21.75

Bulls bought the dip in CY near $22.00 this morning. More aggressive traders might want to jump in early right now or consider buying CY above $23.25. We're suggesting a trigger to buy CY at $23.51. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a base of support along its rising trendline of support and a $33 upside target. If we are triggered at $23.51 our short-term target is the $27.00-27.50 range near its 200-dma. We'll have to watch out for potential resistance at its descending 50-dma.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 59.36 chg: +0.98 stop: 54.85 *new*

Target achieved. FMC continued to rally and hit an intraday high of $59.86. Our first target was the $59.75-60.00 zone. FMC closed near its highs for the day and set what appears to be a new all-time high. The $60.00 level should be round-number resistance so we would expect some profit taking soon but a bounce near its 10-dma could be used as a new entry point. Ours second, longer-term target is the $64.00-65.00 range. We are raising the stop loss to $54.85. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout and a $66 target.

Picked on February 19 at $56.17 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: + 3.19
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 718 thousand

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Forest Labs - FRX - close: 42.12 change: +0.39 stop: 39.65

Entry point alert! FRX continued to rally following yesterday's bullish reversal. The stock has broken out over resistance near $42.00 and hit our suggested trigger to buy it at $42.15. If you missed our entry point we would still consider new positions here. Our target is the $47.50-50.00 range. We do expect resistance at $45.00. This is not going to be a quick trade but a more intermediate, multi-week trade. We will try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $39.65. However, we always consider trading anything biotech related as higher-risk. One never knows when a headline will come out about some FDA decision, or important clinical trial that could send the stock gapping one direction or the other.

Picked on February 26 at $42.15 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.03
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million

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General Moly - GMO - close: 11.85 change: +0.12 stop: 9.49

GMO continues ton inch higher and looks like it's coiling for a breakout over the $12.00 level. More conservative traders might want to do a little profit taking here and jump back in on a dip near 11.00-10.50. We have two targets. Our first target is the $12.40-12.50 zone near its December highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.90-14.00 range. We are starting with an aggressive (wide) stop. FYI: GMO has relatively high short interest at 7.7% of the 33.7 million-share float, which is about 7 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 20 at $10.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.30
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 665 thousand

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Time Warner - TWX - close: 16.56 chg: -0.01 stop 15.45

TWX failed to see any follow through on yesterday's bullish reversal but we remain bullish on the stock. Our target is the $17.90-18.00 range. We're using a stop loss at $15.45. More conservative traders may want to place their stop closer to $16.00.

Picked on February 17 at $16.70
Change since picked: + 0.12
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 24.5 million
 

Short Play Updatess

Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 30.46 chg: +0.43 stop: 31.15

This is an important test for CTAS. The stock rallied toward the $31.00 level and found resistance right where it was supposed to. This is a tough call because the DJIA and S&P 500 appear to be breaking out higher, even if it's just a short-term bullish breakout inside the bear market. More conservative traders may want to exit CTAS early right here. If we see CTAS dip and bounce near $30.00 then we would suggest readers exit. We're not suggesting new shorts at this time. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).

Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.71
Earnings Date 03/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Dean Foods - DF - close: 23.05 chg: -0.61 stop: 25.05

DF continues to under perform, which is nice to see when the market is moving higher. Readers may want to start thinking about lowering their stops. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: The move under $24.00 has produced a new quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal. The P&F chart target is $18.00. Our biggest risk is a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.7% of the 127 million-share float or about 9 days worth of short interest, which is significant.

Picked on February 20 at $23.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.90
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 19.06 chg: +0.56 stop: 18.76

Rising competition from the likes of McDonalds (MCD) and Dunkin' Donuts hasn't helped SBUX's stock price. Yet today the stock rallied more than 3% after the company announced a 3 1/2 hour closure for all of its company-owned franchises. The "outage" occurs this evening from 5:30 to 9:00 p.m. so that SBUX's 135,000 baristas can be "energize and transform the customer experience". Technically, today's rally is a bullish breakout from the six-week trend of lower highs. SBUX remains in a very long-term bearish trend and will have to breakout over its 50-dma and the $19.50 level before we would want to consider any sort of bullish position. Currently we're still waiting on a breakdown to new relative lows. We're suggesting readers short SBUX with a trigger to open positions at $17.49. If triggered our target is the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower since the P&F chart already points to a $3.00 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - close: 24.90 change: -1.41 stop: 26.15

Negative analyst commentary following SNDK's analyst day sent shares of SNDK to a 5.3% decline. The stock is near support in the $24.30-24.50 zone. We are waiting for a new relative low. We are suggesting that readers short SNDK under $24.00 with a trigger at $23.99. The January 23rd low was $24.29. If we are triggered at $23.99 our target is the $20.15-20.00 zone. The $20.00 level has been significant support in the past.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.9 million

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United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 72.53 chg: +0.05 stop: 74.05

Unfortunately, we do not see any changes from our prior comments on UPS. The stock continues to consolidate sideways with conflicting buy and sell signals. If the market breaks out higher we would expect UPS to follow - whether it makes sense or not. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 1.95
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million

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Xerox Corp. - XRX - cls: 15.10 chg: +0.06 stop: 15.66

XRX is inching closer to technical resistance at its 50-dma near $15.17. Given the market's recent strength we are not suggesting new shorts in XRX. Yet technically speaking another failed rally under its 50-dma ($15.20) could be used as another entry point for shorts. Our short-term target is the $13.55 mark. XRX's Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $10.50 target. The most recent data listed short interest at just 0.6% of the float. FYI: XRX is due to present at the Goldman Sachs conference on Thursday.

Picked on February 07 at $14.95 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Brunswick - BC - close: 17.44 chg: +0.55 stop: 18.31

We are hitting the eject button on BC. The stock has broken through resistance near $17.00 and its 50-dma. The stock is breaking out from its four-week bearish trend although it remains inside the longer-term bearish trend. We'd rather cut our losses now.

Picked on February 19 at $16.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.69
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million

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PACCAR - PCAR - close: 45.93 change: +0.82 stop: 44.05

PCAR appears to be breaking out from its recent consolidation pattern. We had been waiting for a breakdown under $42.00 but that doesn't look like it's going to occur any time soon so we're dropping PCAR as a bearish candidate.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million
 

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