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Long Play Updates

Acuity Brands - AYI - cls: 46.42 chg: -0.27 stop: 44.59

Wednesday produced more sideways trading in AYI. The momentum in this stock's up trend is almost gone. We remain very cautious. We are not suggesting new bullish positions. Our first target is the $49.50-50.00 zone. The $50 level will probably be round-number resistance compounded by the 200-dma still overhead. We would suggest exiting the majority of your position here. Our second, more aggressive target is the $54.00-55.00 range.

Picked on February 5 at $45.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.92
Earnings Date 04/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 857 thousand

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Cypress Semiconductor - CY - close: 22.54 chg: -0.28 stop: 21.75

CY tried to rally this morning but bulls retreated after some bearish analyst comments and downgrades in the solar energy sector. CY looks like it's headed back for another test of the $22.00 level. Aggressive traders might consider buying a dip or bounce near $22.00. We are sticking with our plan and suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $23.51. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a base of support along its rising trendline of support and a $33 upside target. If we are triggered at $23.51 our short-term target is the $27.00-27.50 range near its 200-dma. We'll have to watch out for potential resistance at its descending 50-dma.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 59.18 chg: -0.18 stop: 54.85

FMC is holding up pretty well considering it just tested resistance near $60.00. We really would not be surprised to see a deeper pull back, probably near its 10-dma, before breaking out higher. FMC has already achieved our first target in the $59.75-60.00 zone. Our second, longer-term target is the $64.00-65.00 range. We are raising the stop loss to $54.85. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout and a $66 target.

Picked on February 19 at $56.17 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: + 3.01
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 718 thousand

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Forest Labs - FRX - close: 42.52 change: +0.40 stop: 39.65

It was another day of gains for FRX. The stock rallied about 0.9% as traders bought the late afternoon dip near $42.15. We don't see any changes from our previous comments and remain bullish on the stock. Our target is the $47.50-50.00 range. We do expect resistance at $45.00. This is not going to be a quick trade but a more intermediate, multi-week trade. We will try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $39.65. However, we always consider trading anything biotech related as higher-risk. One never knows when a headline will come out about some FDA decision, or important clinical trial that could send the stock gapping one direction or the other. FYI: In the news today, after the closing bell, FRX announced it would pay $370 million, plus royalties, to Mylan (MYL) to develop, sell and market the high-blood pressure treatment Bystolic. We did not see any after hours reaction in the stock price.

Picked on February 26 at $42.15 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.37
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million

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General Moly - GMO - close: 11.18 change: -0.67 stop: 9.49

We hope that today's 5.6% decline in GMO was our readers taking some profit off the table. All joking aside the stock was poised for profit taking and we were suggesting that our more conservative readership do just that. A bounce near $11.00 or its 10-dma might offer another entry point for bullish positions. We have two targets. Our first target is the $12.40-12.50 zone near its December highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.90-14.00 range. We are starting with an aggressive (wide) stop. FYI: GMO has relatively high short interest at 7.7% of the 33.7 million-share float, which is about 7 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 20 at $10.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.63
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 665 thousand

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iShares Dow Jones Home Con. - ITB - cls: 20.86 chg: +0.29 stop: 19.24

The homebuilders and the ITB did pretty well considering the negative news today. First off the new home sales figures that came out today were lower than expected. Second, homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) reported earnings and management's comments remained pessimistic in spite of their hope for a turnaround. TOL's CEO claims that the media's non-stop talk about the U.S. recession, and mortgage crisis, slipping home prices, and rising foreclosures is keeping home buyers sidelined. We reiterate our comments from yesterday. Readers could buy the ITB here or wait for a dip near $20.00 or into the $19.65-19.50 zone, which would be more attractive. Our short-term target is the $23.00-23.50 zone near its 200-dma.

Picked on February 26 at $20.57
Change since picked: + 0.29
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 732 thousand

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Time Warner - TWX - close: 16.53 chg: +0.04 stop 15.45

TWX continues to trade sideways. Lack of movement makes us cautious. Readers might want to consider a stop loss closer to the $16.00 level. We're starting to think TWX may need to retest its 50-dma again before moving higher. Readers could wait for the dip and bounce near $16.10 or wait for a new rally over $16.70. Our target is the $17.90-18.00 range. We're using a stop loss at $15.45.

Picked on February 17 at $16.70
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 24.5 million
 

Short Play Updates

Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 29.92 chg: -0.54 stop: 31.15

Shares of CTAS pulled back as expected. More importantly the stock actually closed under the $30.00 level, which is a good sign for the bears. This could be used as a new entry point for shorts. Or if you feel more comfortable waiting then look for a new drop under $29.70. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).

Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.17
Earnings Date 03/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Dean Foods - DF - close: 23.17 chg: +0.12 stop: 25.05

DF produced a minor oversold bounce today. The stock actually pared its gains and the trend remains intact. Readers may want to start thinking about lowering their stops. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: The move under $24.00 has produced a new quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal. The P&F chart target is $18.00. Our biggest risk is a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.7% of the 127 million-share float or about 9 days worth of short interest, which is significant.

Picked on February 20 at $23.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 19.04 chg: -0.02 stop: 18.76

The rebound in SBUX may be struggling here. The stock tagged overhead resistance at its 50-dma and sharply reversed. Very aggressive traders might want to consider shorts right here with a stop loss around $19.35-19.40. Our official plan is to wait for a new relative low. We're suggesting readers short SBUX with a trigger to open positions at $17.49. If triggered our target is the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower since the P&F chart already points to a $3.00 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - close: 25.22 change: +0.32 stop: 26.15

SNDK produced a minor, oversold bounce following yesterday's decline. We are still on the sidelines waiting for a breakdown. We are suggesting that readers short SNDK under $24.00 with a trigger at $23.99. The January 23rd low was $24.29. If we are triggered at $23.99 our target is the $20.15-20.00 zone. The $20.00 level has been significant support in the past.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.9 million

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United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 72.31 chg: -0.22 stop: 74.05

UPS continues to deliver more sideways trading. Shares tested short-term resistance at $73.00 again today. If the market breaks out higher we would expect UPS to follow - whether it makes sense or not. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 1.73
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Axsys Tech. - AXYS - cls: 45.15 chg: -2.28 stop: 43.85

AXYS has decided not to play with us. Given the big move and its positive earnings guidance the recent rally looked the start of something bigger. It now appears that AXYS is running out of steam. We just listed this as an aggressive, momentum play last night and shares have completely reversed on us. We're suggesting an exit now to cut our losses before they get any bigger. We would still keep an eye on AXYS for support in the $42-40 zone and watch it for a rebound from there.

Picked on February 26 at $47.43
Change since picked: - 2.28
Earnings Date 02/19/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 75 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

Xerox Corp. - XRX - cls: 15.49 chg: +0.39 stop: 15.66

XRX surprised us today with a 2.5% gain and a bullish breakout over its simple 50-dma. After weeks of trading under this technical level of resistance we are suggesting an early exit right here to cut our losses. XRX remains in a long-term bearish trend but the stock could rally to $16.00 before hitting resistance again.

Picked on February 07 at $14.95 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.54
Earnings Date 01/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million
 

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