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Long Play Updates

Acuity Brands - AYI - cls: 46.03 chg: -0.39 stop: 44.59

AYI dipped near its recent lows around $45.00. Once again traders bought the dip but the upward momentum is really fading. The MACD on the daily chart produced a new sell signal yesterday. We are strongly considering an early exit and we are not suggesting new positions. Our first target is the $49.50-50.00 zone. The $50 level will probably be round-number resistance compounded by the 200-dma still overhead. We would suggest exiting the majority of your position here. Our second, more aggressive target is the $54.00-55.00 range.

Picked on February 5 at $45.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.53
Earnings Date 04/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 857 thousand

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Cypress Semiconductor - CY - close: 22.01 chg: -0.53 stop: 21.75

The bounce in CY is struggling. Shares lost 2.3% and are testing short-term support in the $22.00-21.85 zone. Aggressive traders might want to consider buying this dip with a very tight stop. We are sticking with our plan and suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $23.51. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a base of support along its rising trendline of support and a $33 upside target. If we are triggered at $23.51 our short-term target is the $27.00-27.50 range near its 200-dma. We'll have to watch out for potential resistance at its descending 50-dma.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 59.41 chg: +0.23 stop: 54.85

FMC continues to look strong although we would not suggest new positions at this level. The stock is inching closer to a breakout over resistance near $60.00. FMC has already achieved our first target in the $59.75-60.00 zone. Our second, longer-term target is the $64.00-65.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout and a $66 target.

Picked on February 19 at $56.17 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: + 3.24
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 718 thousand

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Forest Labs - FRX - close: 40.72 change: -1.80 stop: 39.65

Friedman Billings yanked the carpet out from under shares of FRX this morning with a downgrade to "market perform" and a $42 price target. Shares of FRX reacted with a gap down (41.72) and a spike toward support near $40.00. There were other brokers who came out defending the stock but the damage was done and the market was already looking weak so bulls proved too scared to step in. A dip or a bounce near $40.00 is technically a bullish entry point to buy the stock but considering the jittery market right now readers may want to just wait for another rally over $42.00 again before considering new long positions. Our target is the $47.50-50.00 range. We do expect resistance at $45.00. This is not going to be a quick trade but a more intermediate, multi-week trade. We will try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $39.65. However, we always consider trading anything biotech related as higher-risk. One never knows when a headline will come out about some FDA decision, or important clinical trial that could send the stock gapping one direction or the other.

Picked on February 26 at $42.15 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.43
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million

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General Moly - GMO - close: 11.51 change: +0.33 stop: 9.49

GMO turned in a decent bounce today (+2.9%) as traders bought the dip near its rising 10-dma. Volume was above average on the move, which is a good sign. If you were looking for a new entry point this could be it but we would suggest a higher stop loss if you're just now opening positions. We have two targets. Our first target is the $12.40-12.50 zone near its December highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.90-14.00 range. We are starting with an aggressive (wide) stop. FYI: GMO has relatively high short interest at 7.7% of the 33.7 million-share float, which is about 7 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 20 at $10.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.96
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 665 thousand

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iShares Dow Jones Home Con. - ITB - cls: 19.79 chg: -1.07 stop: 19.24

We cautioned readers that we might get a better opportunity to buy the ITB on a pull back. That dip came today with a 5.1% sell-off. The ITB has now broken the $20.00 level and should be testing short-term support. We would consider buying dips (or bounces) from here at $19.80 or anywhere above $19.50. Our short-term target is the $23.00-23.50 zone near its 200-dma.

Picked on February 26 at $20.57
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 732 thousand

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Time Warner - TWX - close: 16.02 chg: -0.51 stop 15.79 *new*

Shares of TWX were bruised today as investors took a 3% chunk out of the stock price. We did not see anything specific to account for the sudden sell off. Shares appear to be consolidating in what looks like a bear flag pattern and the intraday low bounced near the bottom of its bear flag. Thus this could prove to be a new entry point to buy the stock. We were suggesting that readers look for a dip or a bounce near $16.10 as an entry. Today's intraday low was $15.86. We're going to adjust our stop loss to $15.79 and reduce our risk. Meanwhile the big news in TWX today was the company's after hours announcement that it was folding its New Line Cinema movie division into its Warner Brothers division, which will save money and offer more synergies for the two businesses. Our target is the $17.90-18.00 range.

Picked on February 17 at $16.70
Change since picked: - 0.68
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 24.5 million
 

Short Play Updates

Blue Coat Sys. - BCSI - close: 23.98 change: -0.82 stop: 26.26

BCSI continues to look weak. The stock lost 3.3% today and closed under what looked like short-term support near $24.00. This could easily be a new entry point for shorts. However, we were suggesting a trigger to short the stock at $23.75 so we're still on the sidelines for now. If triggered our target is the $20.25-20.00 zone. There is potential support at the January low near $22.00-21.80 but if BCSI breaks lower we think it's going to $20. FYI: The P&F chart is still bullish. Meanwhile BCSI is presenting at an investor conference on March 3rd. By the way, technical traders will note that if this is a big, bear flag then our $20 target is not low enough. We also need to note that the most recent data puts short interest at 14.5% of the 36.2 million share float. That is not a very big float and a relatively high amount of short interest, which raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 30.03 chg: +0.11 stop: 31.15

Lack of follow through lower on yesterday's decline is a bit worrisome. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward $30.75. We would wait for a new move under $29.60 (Friday's low) before considering new shorts. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).

Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.28
Earnings Date 03/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Dean Foods - DF - close: 22.99 chg: -0.18 stop: 25.05

DF is still sinking and that's great news for the bears. The stock lost another 0.78% and is now down 4% from our suggested entry at $23.95. The stock remains oversold. Readers can look for a failed rally at its 10-dma as a new entry point. Readers may want to start thinking about lowering their stops. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: The move under $24.00 has produced a new quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal. The P&F chart target is $18.00. Our biggest risk is a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.7% of the 127 million-share float or about 9 days worth of short interest, which is significant.

Picked on February 20 at $23.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.96
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Dish Network - DISH - close: 29.73 chg: +0.55 stop: 30.26

DISH surprised us with a bounce today, adding 2.7% on average volume. The stock remains under resistance near $31.00-31.35 and its 50-dma. Fortunately, we're still on the sidelines waiting for a breakdown under $29.00. Our suggested entry point is $28.75. There is potential support near $27 and its January lows. However, our target is going to be the $26.00-25.00 zone. FYI: The latest data put short interest at 2.3% of the 202 million-share float.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 18.57 chg: -0.47 stop: 18.76

As expected SBUX is struggling with its rebound. The stock lost 2.4%. Aggressive traders might want to consider shorts here with a stop above the 50-dma. Our official plan is to wait for a new relative low. We're suggesting readers short SBUX with a trigger to open positions at $17.49. If triggered our target is the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower since the P&F chart already points to a $3.00 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - close: 24.32 change: -0.90 stop: 26.15

Hang on to your hats! SNDK is sinking lower and nearing our entry point. The stock lost 3.5% today and closed near its lows for the session. Shares are poised to breakdown and hit new multi-year lows. We are still on the sidelines waiting for a breakdown. We are suggesting that readers short SNDK under $24.00 with a trigger at $23.99. The January 23rd low was $24.29. If we are triggered at $23.99 our target is the $20.15-20.00 zone. The $20.00 level has been significant support in the past.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.9 million

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United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 71.75 chg: -0.56 stop: 74.05

Could it be rising, record-high oil prices putting some pressure on UPS? The stock is inching lower but remains in its sideways consolidation. Wait for a new decline under $70.60 before considering new shorts. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 1.17
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million
 

Closed Long Plays

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Closed Short Plays

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