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Long Play Updates

Cypress Semiconductor - CY - close: 22.01 chg: -0.53 stop: 21.75

The bulls have had a hard time building on any of CY's bounce attempts. We're still on the sidelines waiting for shares to cross the $23.50 level. If the market does see a washout lower on Monday we would be tempted to buy a bounce near $20.00 or the January lows. Currently our suggested entry point is $23.51 but we're considering an adjustment toward $23.31. If we are triggered at $23.51 our short-term target is the $27.00-27.50 range near its 200-dma. We'll have to watch out for potential resistance at its descending 50-dma.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 56.61 chg: -2.80 stop: 54.85

FMC had been a strong performer all week with a rally toward $60 and tagging our first target in the $59.75-60.00 zone. Unfortunately when Friday's sell-off began traders rushed in to lock in gains and FMC gave back 4.7%. We are not suggesting new positions at current levels but another bounce near $55.00 would look like a bullish entry point. Our second, longer-term target is the $64.00-65.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout and a $66 target.

Picked on February 19 at $56.17 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: + 0.44
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 718 thousand

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General Moly - GMO - close: 10.69 change: -0.82 stop: 9.49

GMO was no exception to the market-wide profit taking on Friday. Indeed the stock was hit even harder considering some of its recent gains. Shares lost 7.1% and pulled back toward what should be support near $10.50 and its 50-dma. This actually looks like a new bullish entry point but we would wait to make sure that the market doesn't spike lower again on Monday morning before opening new positions. We have two targets. Our first target is the $12.40-12.50 zone near its December highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.90-14.00 range. We are starting with an aggressive (wide) stop. FYI: GMO has relatively high short interest at 7.7% of the 33.7 million-share float, which is about 7 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 20 at $10.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 665 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

AXA - AXA - close: 33.66 change: -1.45 stop: 36.11

We were expecting a decline in AXA on Friday but we were not expecting shares to gap down and open at $34.25. Our suggested entry point for shorts was $34.49 so the opening trade would have been our entry. The stock closed on its lows for the session, which is normally bearish for the next day's open. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. AXA is based in Europe so we can expect shares to gap open, up or down, everyday when trading begins in New York.

Picked on February 29 at $34.25 *gap down
Change since picked: - 0.59
Earnings Date 02/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Blue Coat Sys. - BCSI - close: 23.48 change: -0.50 stop: 26.26

The sell-off in shares of BCSI continued and the stock broke support near $24.00. Shares eventually hit our suggested trigger at $23.75 opening the play. If there is an oversold bounce then look for a failed rally near $25.00-25.50 as a new entry point. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 zone. There is potential support at the January low near $22.00-21.80 but if BCSI breaks lower we think it's going to $20. FYI: The P&F chart is still bullish. Meanwhile BCSI is presenting at an investor conference on March 3rd. By the way, technical traders will note that if this is a big, bear flag then our $20 target is not low enough. We also need to note that the most recent data puts short interest at 14.5% of the 36.2 million-share float. That is not a very big float and a relatively high amount of short interest, which raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 29 at $23.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 28.78 chg: -1.25 stop: 31.15

The widespread market weakness on Friday helped push CTAS to a new multi-year low. If you are looking for a new entry point consider another failed rally in the $29.50-30.00 zone. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).

Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.97
Earnings Date 03/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Dean Foods - DF - close: 21.52 chg: -1.47 stop: 24.05 *new*

Investors hate it when a company dilutes their stock. That's what happened on Friday. Shares of DF lost 6.4% after announcing a secondary public offering. The company said they were selling about 18.7 million shares, which would dilute current shares outstanding by about 13%. We are surprised that DF didn't drop further (say 10%-13%) on the news. Currently the stock is down more than 10% from our trigger price and more conservative traders may want to lock in some gains here. We are not suggesting new positions. We are going to tighten our stop loss to $24.05. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: The move under $24.00 has produced a new quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal. The P&F chart target is $18.00. Our biggest risk is a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.7% of the 127 million-share float or about 9 days worth of short interest, which is significant.

Picked on February 20 at $23.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.43
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Dish Network - DISH - close: 29.65 chg: -0.89 stop: 30.26

We were surprised that DISH didn't show more weakness on Friday. The stock did drop 2.9%, which under performed the S&P 500. More aggressive traders may want to jump in now anyway given the recent failed rally near $31.00. We have been waiting for a breakdown under $29.00 with a suggested entry point for shorts at $28.75. We may not have to wait much longer. After the closing bell on Friday it was announced that The NFL Network is suing DISH. Shares of DISH were trading under $29.00 after hours on Friday. If we are triggered at $28.75 then our target is the $26.00-25.00 zone. FYI: The latest data put short interest at 2.3% of the 202 million-share float.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.98 chg: -0.59 stop: 18.76

The rebound in SBUX is over. The stock has pulled back toward support near $18.00. It's time to double-check those trigger points. Our official plan is to wait for a new relative low. We're suggesting readers short SBUX with a trigger to open positions at $17.49. If triggered our target is the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower since the P&F chart already points to a $3.00 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - close: 23.55 change: -0.77 stop: 26.15

Tech stocks definitely struggled during Friday's decline. Shares of SNDK lost more than 3%. Furthermore the stock broke down under support at $24.00 and closed near its lows for the session. Our suggested entry point for shorts was $23.99 so the play is now open. Our target is the $20.15-20.00 zone. The $20.00 level has been significant support in the past. FYI: The P&F chart just produced a brand new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal.

Picked on February 29 at $23.99 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.9 million

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United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 70.24 chg: -1.51 stop: 74.05

UPS is finally starting to show some weakness and the stock has broken its short-term bullish trend of lower highs. Friday's decline also left UPS under its 50-dma. Meanwhile UPS is playing games with investors by releasing news after the closing bell on Friday. The company has "revised" its previous fourth quarter earnings calling it a bookkeeping error of $65 million. This error means the company actually missed Wall Street estimates instead of meeting them. Believe what you want about the timing but the trend continues to look very bearish. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Acuity Brands - AYI - cls: 44.41 chg: -1.62 stop: 44.59

We have been cautious on AYI for days and Friday's market meltdown finally pushed the stock under support. AYI hit our stop loss at $44.59 closing the play.

Picked on February 5 at $45.50 *triggered *stopped 44.59
Change since picked: - 1.09
Earnings Date 04/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 857 thousand

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Forest Labs - FRX - close: 39.77 change: -0.95 stop: 39.65

FRX had been looking pretty good with a breakout to new five-month highs earlier this week. Thursday the stock sank sharply on a downgrade. Friday's market disaster eventually pulled the stock under support at $40.00 and FRX hit our stop loss at $39.65.

Picked on February 26 at $42.15 *triggered *stopped 39.65
Change since picked: - 2.38
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million

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iShares Dow Jones Home Con. - ITB - cls: 18.50 chg: -1.29 stop: 19.24

Investors quickly dumped the homebuilders as the stock market imploded on Friday. The ITB broke through some minor support levels, hit our stop loss at $19.24 and continued lower toward support near $18.00 and its 50-dma. If the ITB breaks down under $17.80 we may want to consider shorting it with a $15 target.

Picked on February 26 at $20.57 *stopped 19.24
Change since picked: - 2.07
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 732 thousand

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Time Warner - TWX - close: 15.61 chg: -0.41 stop 15.79

There was no bounce from the bottom of TWX's bull flag pattern. The stock just kept right on falling as the S&P lost 2.7% and the DJIA sank over 300 points. Shares of TWX lost 2.5% and broke down under short-term support near $16.00 and its 50-dma. The stock hit our stop loss at $15.79.

Picked on February 17 at $16.70 *stopped 15.79
Change since picked: - 1.09
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 24.5 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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