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Long Play Updates

Cypress Semiconductor - CY - close: 22.19 chg: +0.45 stop: 21.75

Shares of CY are showing signs of life with a 2% rebound today. This is impressive considering the potentially negative news out earlier this afternoon. There were a couple of news articles discussing CY's 10-K filing issued this morning. In the 10-K CY claims that they have listed about $68 million in auction-rate securities at "long-term investments" since they can't sell them in the current marketplace. The stock market didn't seem to mind as CY closed near its highs for the session. Nimble, aggressive traders might want to jump into CY early if the stock can trade over $22.55 and its short-term trend of lower highs. We're certainly considering an adjustment to our entry point. Currently we are suggesting readers buy CY at $23.51. If we are triggered at $23.51 our short-term target is the $27.00-27.50 range near its 200-dma. We'll have to watch out for potential resistance at its descending 50-dma.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 57.47 chg: +0.86 stop: 54.85

FMC displayed relative strength on Monday. This actually looks like a potential entry point for new positions but you may want to consider a new stop loss closer to $56.00. Shares of FMC have already hit our initial target in the $59.75-60.00 zone. Our second, longer-term target is the $64.00-65.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout and a $66 target.

Picked on February 19 at $56.17 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: + 1.30
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 718 thousand

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General Moly - GMO - close: 11.06 change: +0.37 stop: 9.49

After Friday's steep decline GMO delivered a nice bounce today adding 3.4%. We remain bullish on the stock. If you're interested in new positions here consider a tighter stop loss near $10.00 or $10.50. We have two targets. Our first target is the $12.40-12.50 zone near its December highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.90-14.00 range. We are starting with an aggressive (wide) stop. FYI: GMO has relatively high short interest at 7.7% of the 33.7 million-share float, which is about 7 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 20 at $10.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.51
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 665 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

AXA - AXA - close: 33.69 change: +0.03 stop: 36.11

European markets were generally down about 1% on Monday. AXA managed to recover from its morning lows and post a fractional gain. The trend remains negative and readers can look for a failed rally in the $34.50-35.00 zone as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. AXA is based in Europe so we can expect shares to gap open, up or down, everyday when trading begins in New York.

Picked on February 29 at $34.25 *gap down
Change since picked: - 0.56
Earnings Date 02/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Blue Coat Sys. - BCSI - close: 22.82 change: -0.66 stop: 26.26

Nothing goes down in a straight line for very long but BCSI just posted its sixth loss in a row. It's probably time for an oversold bounce. Meanwhile we did not see any news surface from the company's presentation at a conference today. A failed rally in the $25.00-25.50 zone could be a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 zone. There is potential support at the January low near $22.00-21.80 but if BCSI breaks lower we think it's going to $20. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 14.5% of the 36.2 million-share float. That is not a very big float and a relatively high amount of short interest, which raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 29 at $23.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.93
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 28.99 chg: +0.21 stop: 31.15

CTAS rebounded from its new lows but the rally was fading into the closing bell. We remain bearish here. Today looks like a failed rally at $29.50, which we suggested was a new entry point for shorts. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).

Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.76
Earnings Date 03/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Dean Foods - DF - close: 21.71 chg: +0.19 stop: 24.05

DF gapped open higher today after an analyst firm upgraded the stock before the open. The rally quickly ran out of steam but DF still managed a 0.8% gain. The trend remains bearish but we are not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: The move under $24.00 has produced a new quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal. The P&F chart target is $18.00. Our biggest risk is a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.7% of the 127 million-share float or about 9 days worth of short interest, which is significant.

Picked on February 20 at $23.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.24
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Dish Network - DISH - close: 30.00 chg: +0.35 stop: 30.26

DISH continues to trade sideways. If we don't see some follow through lower soon we'll drop DISH as a candidate. Speaking of dropped it looks like one analyst firm dropped their coverage on DISH. Normally this is bearish as firms prefer to stop covering a stock instead of actually downgrading them. This way they don't spoil any relationships with the company in hopes of doing (or retaining) business with them down the road. We have been waiting for a breakdown under $29.00 with a suggested entry point for shorts at $28.75. If we are triggered at $28.75 then our target is the $26.00-25.00 zone. FYI: The latest data put short interest at 2.3% of the 202 million-share float.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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Granite Const. - GVA - close: 28.75 change: -1.44 stop: 32.55

The selling in GVA continued into Monday. The stock sank another 4.7% and did so on strong volume, which is definitely bearish. Shares broke support near $30.00 and hit our trigger to short it at $29.85. Now that the play is open our target is the $25.50-25.00 zone. FYI: Readers need to be aware that the most recent data puts short interest at 8.8% of the 38.9 million-share float. That is about five days worth of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 03 at $29.85 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 760 thousand

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.85 chg: -0.13 stop: 18.76

It's normally not a good sign with top management resigns for personal reasons. SBUX announced today that the president of their U.S. division has resigned to spend more time with her family. While that is a great reason to quit and something we all aspire to do usually Wall Street sees a move like this as a warning sign. Of course shares of SBUX have been "warning" investors for months. The stock is flirting with a breakdown to new lows. We're suggesting readers short SBUX with a trigger to open positions at $17.49. If triggered our target is the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower since the P&F chart already points to a $3.00 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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Sepracor - SEPR - close: 21.30 change: -0.17 stop: 23.61

SEPR was actually upgraded today but you wouldn't know it from looking at the stock price. The news had little affect on shares, which continued to hit new lows. We are suggesting shorts with SEPR under $22.00. Readers can choose to open positions now or look for another failed rally under the $22.00-22.25 zone. Our target is the $18.00-17.50 region. FYI: Readers need to know that the most recent data puts short interest at 7.2% of the 110.5 million-share float. That is more than 3.5 days of short interest.

Picked on February 29 at $21.47
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 02/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - close: 23.05 change: -0.50 stop: 26.15

SNDK continues to sink. The stock lost another 2.2% today. You could argue that SNDK is a little short-term oversold. If we see a bounce look for the $24-25 zone to act as overhead resistance. A failed rally in that region can be used as a new entry for shorts. Our target is the $20.15-20.00 zone. The $20.00 level has been significant support in the past. FYI: The P&F chart just produced a brand new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal.

Picked on February 29 at $23.99 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.94
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.9 million

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Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 28.45 change: -0.29 stop: 30.51

Shares of rival SVU soared 7% today after the company raised its earnings guidance. This did little to stop the bleeding in shares of SWY, which lost another 1%. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments on SWY. We are suggesting shorts here under $29.00 but a failed rally anywhere under $30.00 could work as a new entry point. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. We do want to point out that on the P&F chart SWY is at the trendline of support. Normally, a stock will see a sharp rebound when it hits this trendline on the P&F chart. The February 22nd-26th bounce might have been that rebound but it wasn't enough to register on the P&F chart. Meanwhile the latest data puts short interest at 3.9% of the 437 million-share float, which is about 4 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 29 at $28.74
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 70.61 chg: +0.37 stop: 74.05

UPS initially spiked lower to $69.41 but recovered by the closing bell. This is an impressive rebound given a new high in oil near $104 a barrel. Lack of real movement lower is cooling our enthusiasm for shorts in UPS. The stock just isn't moving very fast. Right now we're considering a tighter stop loss around $73.05. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 0.03
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million
 

Closed Long Plays

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Closed Short Plays

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