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Long Play Updates

Cypress Semiconductor - CY - close: 21.97 chg: -0.22 stop: 21.75

CY continues to struggle under its short-term pattern of lower highs and lower lows. If we don't see signs of life soon we're going to drop it as a bullish candidate. Nimble, aggressive traders might want to jump into CY early if the stock can trade over $22.55 and its short-term trend of lower highs. We're certainly considering an adjustment to our entry point. Currently we are suggesting readers buy CY at $23.51. If we are triggered at $23.51 our short-term target is the $27.00-27.50 range near its 200-dma. We'll have to watch out for potential resistance at its descending 50-dma.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 57.17 chg: -0.30 stop: 54.85

FMC fared better that most of the stocks related to agriculture and fertilizer. The stock managed a fractional decline thanks to the afternoon rebound. However, we are still seeing technical weakness on the short-term and daily time frames. We're not suggesting new bullish plays at this time. You may want to consider a new stop loss closer to $56.00. Shares of FMC have already hit our initial target in the $59.75-60.00 zone. Our second, longer-term target is the $64.00-65.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout and a $66 target.

Picked on February 19 at $56.17 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: + 1.00
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 718 thousand

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General Moly - GMO - close: 10.53 change: -0.53 stop: 9.89 *new*

We warned readers that GMO could be a volatile stock. Shares slipped to $10.05 intraday before bouncing back. This actually looks like a test of support near $10.00 and its rising 100-dma. Readers could use this as a new bullish entry point. However, our market outlook is not very bullish so this is a tough environment to consider buying stocks. We are going to try and reduce our risk with a stop loss at $9.89. We have two targets. Our first target is the $12.40-12.50 zone near its December highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.90-14.00 range. We are starting with an aggressive (wide) stop. FYI: GMO has relatively high short interest at 7.7% of the 33.7 million-share float, which is about 7 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 20 at $10.55 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 665 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

AXA - AXA - close: 32.87 change: -0.82 stop: 36.11

Financials, including insurance, continues to struggle. AXA gapped down as it is prone to do and closed with a 2.4% decline in spite of its afternoon bounce. The trend remains negative and readers can look for a failed rally in the $34.50-35.00 zone as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. AXA is based in Europe so we can expect shares to gap open, up or down, everyday when trading begins in New York.

Picked on February 29 at $34.25 *gap down
Change since picked: - 1.38
Earnings Date 02/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Blue Coat Sys. - BCSI - close: 22.32 change: -0.50 stop: 26.26

BCSI is now down seven days in a row. We have to expect a real bounce at any time. Look for shares to find short-term overhead resistance near $24.00 and again near its 10-dma. We are adjusting our stop loss to 25.51. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 zone. There is potential support at the January low near $22.00-21.80 but if BCSI breaks lower we think it's going to $20. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 14.5% of the 36.2 million-share float. That is not a very big float and a relatively high amount of short interest, which raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 29 at $23.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.43
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 29.25 chg: +0.26 stop: 31.15

The trend in CTAS remains lower but traders should note that the stock did not breakdown to new lows during the market weakness today. That is a danger sign for the bears. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $30.65-30.50. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).

Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.50
Earnings Date 03/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Dean Foods - DF - close: 21.43 chg: -0.28 stop: 24.05

DF continues to sink. If there is any bounce the stock should encounter resistance near $22.00, 22.75 and its 10-dma near $23.00. We are not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to do some profit taking here. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: The move under $24.00 has produced a new quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal. The P&F chart target is $18.00. Our biggest risk is a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.7% of the 127 million-share float or about 9 days worth of short interest, which is significant.

Picked on February 20 at $23.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.52
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Dish Network - DISH - close: 29.95 chg: -0.05 stop: 30.26

DISH displayed relative strength today by failing to move down when the market was weak. It still looks like the next move will be lower but we are growing more skeptical. If we don't see a move soon we'll drop it. We have been waiting for a breakdown under $29.00 with a suggested entry point for shorts at $28.75. If we are triggered at $28.75 then our target is the $26.00-25.00 zone. FYI: The latest data put short interest at 2.3% of the 202 million-share float.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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Granite Const. - GVA - close: 29.11 change: +0.36 stop: 32.55

GVA managed a minor bounce following yesterday's bearish break under support. We do not see any changes from our previous comments. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 zone. FYI: Readers need to be aware that the most recent data puts short interest at 8.8% of the 38.9 million-share float. That is about five days worth of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 03 at $29.85 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.26
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 760 thousand

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.90 chg: +0.05 stop: 18.76

Investors are still trying to buy the lows in SBUX thinking it's a bottom. The trend is very clearly pointing lower. We're just waiting for the next leg down to begin. We're suggesting readers short SBUX with a trigger to open positions at $17.49. If triggered our target is the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower since the P&F chart already points to a $3.00 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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Sepracor - SEPR - close: 21.45 change: +0.15 stop: 23.61

SEPR also rebounded with the market's afternoon bounce. The trend is still bearish. Look for a failed rally in the $22.00-22.25 zone or its 10-dma (22.55) as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $18.00-17.50 region. FYI: Readers need to know that the most recent data puts short interest at 7.2% of the 110.5 million-share float. That is more than 3.5 days of short interest.

Picked on February 29 at $21.47
Change since picked: - 0.12
Earnings Date 02/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - close: 22.89 change: -0.16 stop: 25.26 *new*

Intel's comments about memory is bad news for SNDK and the rest of the sector. Shares of SNDK slipped to $22.20 before bouncing back. Look for the $24-25 zone to act as overhead resistance. We are adjusting our stop loss to $25.26. A failed rally under $24-25 can be used as a new entry for shorts. Our target is the $20.15-20.00 zone. The $20.00 level has been significant support in the past. FYI: The P&F chart just produced a brand new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal.

Picked on February 29 at $23.99 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.9 million

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Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 29.70 change: +1.25 stop: 30.51

Positive comments from SWY's management at an investor conference today' sparked some short covering. The stock spiked from $28 to $ 30 very quickly but broken support, which is now new resistance near $30.00, held the rally in check. A new decline under the $29.40-29.25 zone could be a new entry point for shorts. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 3.9% of the 437 million-share float, which is about 4 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 29 at $28.74
Change since picked: + 0.96
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 71.05 chg: +0.44 stop: 73.11*new*

Profit taking in crude oil futures fueled some buying in UPS today. Traders were buying dips near $70.00 and the market's afternoon bounce lifted UPS back above its 50-dma. We are adjusting our stop loss to $73.11. Wait for a new failed rally under $72.00 before considering new shorts. Lack of real movement lower is cooling our enthusiasm for shorts in UPS. The stock just isn't moving very fast. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million
 

Closed Long Plays

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Closed Short Plays

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