Long Play Updates
Cypress Semiconductor - CY - close: 22.47 chg: +0.50 stop: 21.19*new*
CY is finally starting to show some signs of life here. We are going to get more aggressive with our entry point and suggest buying the stock at $22.85. We'll move our stop loss to 21.19, which is less than 10 cents under Tuesday's low. If we are triggered at $22.85 we will have two targets. Our first short-term target will be $24.85-25.00. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $27.00-27.50 zone near its 200-dma. Bulls will need to watch out for potential resistance at the 50-dma.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 58.27 chg: +1.10 stop: 54.85
FMC continues to rebound and has now reclaimed its 10-dma. The next challenge is resistance near $60.00. You may want to consider a new stop loss closer to $56.00. Shares of FMC have already hit our initial target in the $59.75-60.00 zone. Our second, longer-term target is the $64.00-65.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a triple-top breakout and a $66 target.
Picked on February 19 at $56.17 *triggered/gap open
Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 52.75 change: -1.87 stop: 47.95
Gold futures rallied a lot sooner than I expected. Personally, I was looking for a potential entry in the GLD around $92.00 but bulls bought yesterday's dip near its 10-dma. There are a lot of analysts with forecasts for gold to hit anywhere between $1,050 to $1,150, $1,500, $1,600 even $2,000 an ounce. While some of those are longer-term targets we do think that short-term the $1,000 level should be resistance and the precious metal should see some significant profit taking once it tags $1,000. However, a continuously falling U.S. dollar might change that scenario and inhibit any correction in gold prices. The trend in the gold miner etf (GDX) is still bullish and today's rebound is a good sign following yesterday's bearish reversal. Unfortunately, we were suggesting readers buy a dip near support around $50.00 (actual entry suggestion is $50.50-50.00). More nimble and aggressive traders may want to buy the GDX on a breakout over $55.00. We're going to wait for the dip - at least for now. We are listing two targets. Our short-term upside target will be $54.75-55.00. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $58.00-60.00 range. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for the GDX is sporting a bullish triangle breakout with a $79 target.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
General Moly - GMO - close: 10.32 change: -0.21 stop: 9.89
Uh-oh! GMO failed to rebound with the broader market. The stock plunged lower this morning. While shares did bounce near support around $10 and its rising 100-dma the stock closed the session with a 2% loss. The MACD on the daily chart has produced a new sell signal. This relative weakness raises the alarm flags. The short-term trendline of lower highs suggests that readers can wait for a new rally over $10.75 before initiating new positions. Or you could buy this dip near $10 and keep your exposure down to 40+ cents. We have two targets. Our first target is the $12.40-12.50 zone near its December highs. Our second, more aggressive target is the $13.90-14.00 range. We are starting with an aggressive (wide) stop. FYI: GMO has relatively high short interest at 7.7% of the 33.7 million-share float, which is about 7 days worth of short interest.
Picked on February 20 at $10.55 *triggered
Short Play Updates
AXA - AXA - close: 33.10 change: +0.23 stop: 36.11
AXA is starting to see a little bit of an oversold bounce. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Readers can look for a failed rally in the $34.50-35.00 zone as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. AXA is based in Europe so we can expect shares to gap open, up or down, everyday when trading begins in New York.
Picked on February 29 at $34.25 *gap down
Blue Coat Sys. - BCSI - close: 22.40 change: +0.08 stop: 25.51
BCSI ends the losing streak but today's gain isn't very convincing. The stock hit $23.25 midday and then faded lower. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 zone. There is potential support at the January low near $22.00-21.80 but if BCSI breaks lower we think it's going to $20. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 14.5% of the 36.2 million-share float. That is not a very big float and a relatively high amount of short interest, which raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on February 29 at $23.75 *triggered
Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 29.25 chg: +0.26 stop: 30.76 *new*
CTAS delivered a minor gain today but it is the afternoon bounce near $29.00 that could have the bears worried. We are going to try and reduce our risk with a stop loss at $30.76. A failed rally near $30.00 would continue to look like a new entry point for shorts. There was some news today but it didn't seem to be stock-moving. CTAS filed suit against some labor unions claiming that CTAS is the victim of an extortion campaign. Meanwhile our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).
Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Dean Foods - DF - close: 21.53 chg: +0.10 stop: 24.05
DF has spent the last two days going sideways. We are not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to do some profit taking here. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: The move under $24.00 has produced a new quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal. The P&F chart target is $18.00. Our biggest risk is a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.7% of the 127 million-share float or about 9 days worth of short interest, which is significant.
Picked on February 20 at $23.95 *triggered
Dish Network - DISH - close: 29.22 chg: -0.73 stop: 30.26
DISH really under performed the market today with a 2.4% decline. The technical picture is really starting to deteriorate. We have been waiting for a breakdown under $29.00 with a suggested entry point for shorts at $28.75. If we are triggered at $28.75 then our target is the $26.00-25.00 zone. FYI: The latest data put short interest at 2.3% of the 202 million-share float.
Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Granite Const. - GVA - close: 29.55 change: +0.44 stop: 32.55
The oversold bounce in GVA posted a second day of gains. However, the rebound found resistance right where it was supposed to at the $30.00 mark. A failure here could be a new entry point or a failure near its 10-dma. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 zone. FYI: Readers need to be aware that the most recent data puts short interest at 8.8% of the 38.9 million-share float. That is about five days worth of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on March 03 at $29.85 *triggered
Starbucks - SBUX - close: 18.14 chg: +0.24 stop: 18.76
No change from our prior comments. We're waiting for the next leg down to begin. We're suggesting readers short SBUX with a trigger to open positions at $17.49. If triggered our target is the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower since the P&F chart already points to a $3.00 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.
Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Sepracor - SEPR - close: 21.09 change: -0.36 stop: 23.61
SEPR is still under performing the market. The stock lost 1.67% albeit on below average volume. Our target is the $18.00-17.50 region. FYI: Readers need to know that the most recent data puts short interest at 7.2% of the 110.5 million-share float. That is more than 3.5 days of short interest.
Picked on February 29 at $21.47
SanDisk - SNDK - close: 22.43 change: -0.46 stop: 25.26
The rebound in SNDK faded near $23.00 and shares lost another 2% by the closing bell. A failed rally under $24-25 can be used as a new entry for shorts. Our target is the $20.15-20.00 zone. The $20.00 level has been significant support in the past. FYI: The P&F chart just produced a brand new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal.
Picked on February 29 at $23.99 *triggered
Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 29.37 change: -0.33 stop: 30.51
SWY pulled back from resistance near $30.00 today but managed another bounce this afternoon. We suggest watching for another failed rally near $30.00 as a potential entry point for shorts. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 3.9% of the 437 million-share float, which is about 4 days worth of short interest.
Picked on February 29 at $28.74
United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 72.30 chg: +1.25 stop: 73.11
Why the transports, including UPS, continue to rally in the face of triple-digit crude oil is a mystery. Oil surged to new highs today and UPS produces a 1.7% gain and on above average volume? Maybe we should just exit early right here and cut our losses. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.
Picked on February 10 at $70.58
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