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Long Play Updates

Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 54.78 change: +0.09 stop: 47.95

The GDX continues to trade near its highs in spite of a pull back in gold futures this morning. More aggressive traders may want to buy a breakout over $55.00-55.25. We are waiting for a dip toward support. Specifically we're suggesting readers buy the GDX in the $50.50-50.00 zone. We are listing two targets. Our short-term upside target will be $54.75-55.00. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $58.00-60.00 range. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for the GDX is sporting a bullish triangle breakout with a $79 target.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 4.2 million

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General Moly - GMO - close: 10.02 change: -0.30 stop: 9.89

It's not looking good for our GMO play. The stock has continued to see profit taking and shares slipped closer to support near $10.00 and its 100-dma. It wouldn't take much more to stop us out at $9.89. Any significant market weakness tomorrow will probably lead GMO to hit our stop loss. Now we look greedy for not suggesting more strongly that readers take profits near $12.00 (we did suggest it but maybe not strongly enough). We had been targeting a move into the $12.40-12.50 zone and then a more aggressive target at $13.90-14.00.

Picked on February 20 at $10.55 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.53
Earnings Date 03/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 665 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

AXA - AXA - close: 32.15 change: -0.95 stop: 35.11 *new*

Another sell-off in financials and insurance helped pull AXA to a 2.8% decline and a new two-week low. We are adjusting the stop loss to $35.11. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. AXA is based in Europe so we can expect shares to gap open, up or down, everyday when trading begins in New York.

Picked on February 29 at $34.25 *gap down
Change since picked: - 2.10
Earnings Date 02/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Blue Coat Sys. - BCSI - close: 21.76 change: -0.64 stop: 25.01*new*

BCSI continues to sink. The stock lost another 2.8% today. We are adjusting the stop loss to $25.01. More conservative traders may want to put their stop near $24.00. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 zone. There is potential support at the January low near $22.00-21.80 but if BCSI breaks lower we think it's going to $20. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 14.5% of the 36.2 million-share float. That is not a very big float and a relatively high amount of short interest, which raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 29 at $23.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.99
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 28.56 chg: -0.76 stop: 30.76

Thursday's market weakness has helped push CTAS to a new multi-year low. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).

Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.26
Earnings Date 03/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Dean Foods - DF - close: 21.07 chg: -0.46 stop: 24.05

DF slipped to a 2.1% loss and is on the verge of breaking down below the $21.00 level. The stock is down more than 12% from our suggested entry point. More conservative traders may want to take some money off the table here. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range. FYI: The move under $24.00 has produced a new quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal. The P&F chart target is $18.00. Our biggest risk is a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.7% of the 127 million-share float or about 9 days worth of short interest, which is significant.

Picked on February 20 at $23.95 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.88
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Dish Network - DISH - close: 29.07 chg: -0.15 stop: 30.26

Most quote services are going to tell you that DISH's intraday high was $30.65. That looks like a bad tick at the opening bell thanks in part to an upgrade by Credit Suisse. A quick glance at the intraday chart and DISH never traded above $30.10. The stock did breakdown under $29.00 later this afternoon but did not hit our suggested trigger at $28.75. The trend today was definitely bearish so DISH will probably hit our trigger tomorrow. If we are triggered at $28.75 then our target is the $26.00-25.00 zone. FYI: The latest data put short interest at 2.3% of the 202 million-share float.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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Granite Const. - GVA - close: 27.04 change: -2.51 stop: 30.51 *new*

Perfect. GVA has produced a failed rally at the $30.00 level. The follow through pulled the stock to an 8.49% loss and a new multi-year low. We are adjusting the stop loss to $30.51. More conservative traders may want to think about taking some profits here or on any dip tomorrow. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 zone. FYI: Readers need to be aware that the most recent data puts short interest at 8.8% of the 38.9 million-share float. That is about five days worth of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 03 at $29.85 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.81
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 760 thousand

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.60 chg: -0.54 stop: 18.55 *new*

Traders take your mark! Get set! Shares of SBUX evaporated to a 2.9% loss and a new multi-year closing low. Yet the intraday dip bounced at $17.51. We are suggesting readers short SBUX with a trigger to open positions at $17.49. If triggered our target is the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower since the P&F chart already points to a $3.00 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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Sepracor - SEPR - close: 20.24 change: -0.85 stop: 23.05 *new*

SEPR could see a real test tomorrow as the stock approaches round-number, psychological support near $20.00. Shares lost about 4% today and closed at new multi-year lows. Don't be surprised to see a bounce near $20. We are adjusting our stop loss to $23.05. Our target is the $18.00-17.50 region. FYI: Readers need to know that the most recent data puts short interest at 7.2% of the 110.5 million-share float. That is more than 3.5 days of short interest.

Picked on February 29 at $21.47
Change since picked: - 1.23
Earnings Date 02/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - close: 21.99 change: -0.44 stop: 25.26

SNDK produced a bounce this morning but it reversed near $23.40. Shares eventually closed at new lows. We are adjusting our stop again to $25.01. Our target is the $20.15-20.00 zone. The $20.00 level has been significant support in the past. Keep an eye on the semis tomorrow. A couple of them reported after the bell tonight and the results appeared to be better than expected. The sector could see a rebound tomorrow, which might influence SNDK. FYI: The P&F chart just produced a brand new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal.

Picked on February 29 at $23.99 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.54
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.9 million

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Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 28.81 change: -0.56 stop: 30.51

SWY did not escape the market-wide selling today. Shares lost 1.9% and continue to look like a short candidate. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 3.9% of the 437 million-share float, which is about 4 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 29 at $28.74
Change since picked: + 0.07
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 72.04 chg: -0.26 stop: 73.11

The relative strength in UPS continues to be a mystery. We're close to just throwing in the towel and looking elsewhere. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 1.46
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Cypress Semiconductor - CY - close: 21.17 chg: -1.30 stop: 21.19*new*

The bounce in shares of CY has been squashed. Shares reversed and lost about 5.8% on Thursday. We had been suggesting readers buy a breakout with a recently adjusted trigger at $22.85. That has not been hit and probably won't be hit any time soon. At this time we are dropping CY as a bullish candidate. Readers can keep it on their watch list for signs of support near $20.00 or the lows near $19.00.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

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FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 56.98 chg: -1.29 stop: 54.85

We are suggesting an early exit on FMC. The stock could still find support near $56.00 or at the $55.00 level. However, markets tend to overshoot on the downside (and the upside) so FMC is likely to dip under $55.00 and then rebound. We would rather exit now and look to re-enter if the rebound looks convincing. The stock has already hit our early target in the $59.75-60.00 zone.

Picked on February 19 at $56.17 *triggered/gap open/exit early
Change since picked: + 0.81
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 718 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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