Long Play Updates
Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 53.45 change: -1.33 stop: 47.95
Gold is still trading under $100 and the GDX is hovering under resistance near $55.00. If the market sees more of a sell-off we expect the GDX to dip toward support near $50.00 and its 50-dma. We're suggesting readers buy the GDX in the $50.50-50.00 zone. We are listing two targets. Our short-term upside target will be $54.75-55.00. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $58.00-60.00 range. Speaking of aggressive, more aggressive traders could buy a breakout over $55.00 or jump in early around $51.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for the GDX is sporting a bullish triangle breakout with a $79 target.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Short Play Updates
AXA - AXA - close: 31.67 change: -0.48 stop: 34.25 *new*
AXA lost another 1.49% and is nearing our target in the $31.00-30.00 zone. We are not suggesting new positions. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $34.25. AXA is based in Europe so we can expect shares to gap open, up or down, everyday when trading begins in New York.
Picked on February 29 at $34.25 *gap down
Blue Coat Sys. - BCSI - close: 21.45 change: -0.31 stop: 25.01
We are modifying our strategy a bit here with BCSI. Our target will be the $20.50-20.00 zone instead of 20.25-20.00. The stock is getting very short-term oversold. While there doesn't appear to be any support now that its trading under the January low the bounce back could be sharp. We'd rather exit in the $20.50-20.00 zone. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $24.00. If the market sees any sort of washout next week BCSI should hit our target. We're not suggesting new plays at this time. BCSI is currently down about 9.6% from our picked price. Readers may want to consider covering now for a profit. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 14.5% of the 36.2 million-share float. That is not a very big float and a relatively high amount of short interest, which raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on February 29 at $23.75 *triggered
Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 28.25 chg: -0.31 stop: 30.76
CTAS hit another new multi-year low on Friday at $27.92. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. More conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop closer to $30.00. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).
Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Dean Foods - DF - close: 20.74 chg: -0.33 stop: 24.05
Please note that we are adjusting our target from $20.25-20.00 to $20.50-20.00. There could be a crowd of shorts who try and cover near $20.00, which is probably round-number, psychological support. So we want to jump out in front of the crowd. More conservative traders may want to start doing a little profit taking now with DF down more than 13% from our triggered price. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. FYI: The move under $24.00 has produced a new quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal. The P&F chart target is $18.00. Our biggest risk is a short squeeze. The most recent data puts short interest at 7.7% of the 127 million-share float or about 9 days worth of short interest, which is significant.
Picked on February 20 at $23.95 *triggered
Dish Network - DISH - close: 28.34 chg: -0.73 stop: 30.26
Our patience may have finally paid off with an entry point in DISH. Shares broke down under short-term support near $29.00 and hit our suggested trigger for bearish positions at $28.75. The MACD on the daily chart has just produced a brand new sell signal. We would still consider new positions here. Don't be surprised to see a temporary bounce near the January low around $27.00. Our target is the $26.00-25.00 zone. FYI: The latest data put short interest at 2.3% of the 202 million-share float.
Picked on March 07 at $28.75 *triggered
Granite Const. - GVA - close: 27.96 change: +0.92 stop: 30.51
After Thursday's big drop GVA actually managed an oversold bounce on Friday. However, bears shouldn't be too alarmed. The rebound stalled out twice near $28.65. This could be a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 zone. FYI: Readers need to be aware that the most recent data puts short interest at 8.8% of the 38.9 million-share float. That is about five days worth of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on March 03 at $29.85 *triggered
Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.10 chg: -0.50 stop: 18.55
We wanted long enough and SBUX has finally hit our suggested entry point for shorts at $17.49. This is a new multi-year low for the coffee giant. Shares closed near their lows for the session, which is normally bearish for the next trading day. The breakdown from a multi-week consolidation pattern is also very bearish. The move lower has produced a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal on the P&F chart that now forecasts a $3.00 target. A failed rally in the $17.75-18.00 zone would be another great entry point to consider shorts. We are aiming for a short-term trip to the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 07 at $17.49 *triggered
Sepracor - SEPR - close: 18.74 change: -1.50 stop: 22.05 *new*
The sell-off in SEPR is picking up momentum. Shares plunged another 7.4% on Friday when the stock broke under support near $20.00. SEPR is now down about 12.7% from our picked price. Volume on Friday was very strong at more then double the norm. We are making some adjustments to our strategy here. First we are adjusting the stop loss to $22.05. More conservative traders could place their stop closer to $21.50 instead. Right now our target is the $18.00-17.50 zone. We strongly suggest that readers cover the majority of your position there, near $18.00. Or consider taking some profits now. However, we are adding an aggressive, secondary target. It sounds like the market is worried that SEPR could suffer from an FDA approval of a generic version to SEPR's Xopenex, which is used to treat asthma or COPD. We did some research. Currently the patent on Xopenex isn't set to expire until November 2009 but last summer rival drugmaker Barr Labs filed an application with the FDA to make a generic version of Xopenex. Competition is definitely coming. You can see on the daily chart of SEPR the big spike down in July when this news came out. Our aggressive, secondary target is the $15.50-15.00 zone. Traders should expect a bounce near $17.50, which was the late June low back in 2003. FYI: Readers need to know that the most recent data puts short interest at 7.2% of the 110.5 million-share float. That is more than 3.5 days of short interest.
Picked on February 29 at $21.47
SanDisk - SNDK - close: 21.41 change: -0.58 stop: 24.16 *new*
We are adjusting our strategy on SNDK. First off we're moving the stop loss to $24.16. More conservative traders may want to place their stop above the 10-dma near $23.60. Speaking of conservative traders, SNDK is down about 10.7% from our picked price. You may want to start profit taking now. Since we're talking about taking profits we're also adjusting our target from $20.15-20.00 to $20.50-20.00. The $20 level should be round-number, psychological support and there could be a crowd of shorts who all try and cover at once. We want to get out in front of them at $20.50. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. FYI: The P&F chart produced a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal this past week.
Picked on February 29 at $23.99 *triggered
Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 28.98 change: +0.17 stop: 30.51
We were a little surprised to see any strength in SWY on Friday but the rebound failed near its 10-dma and the stock was rolling over into the closing bell. This looks like another bearish entry point to short the stock. The company did put out a press release on Friday announcing a quarterly cash dividend of $0.069 cents per common share payable on April 17, 2008 to stockholders of record at the close on March 27th. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 3.9% of the 437 million-share float, which is about 4 days worth of short interest.
Picked on February 29 at $28.74
United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 71.96 chg: -0.08 stop: 73.11
The relative strength in UPS continues to baffle us. The overall trend in the stock is still bearish with a very clear pattern of lower highs. Yet it's taking forever to go anywhere. The better play might be shorting the IYT transportation ishares. If we don't see some additional weakness in UPS on Monday we'll probably drop it! We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.
Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Closed Long Plays
General Moly - GMO - close: 9.21 change: -0.81 stop: 9.89
We've been warning readers about the weakness in GMO for a few days now but we definitely were not expecting an 8% sell-off in the stock price. Shares actually gapped open lower on Friday at $9.89, which happened to be our suggested stop loss. We hope a few readers took our suggestion in late February to do some profit taking when GMO was near $12.00. The break under $10.00 is definitely bearish and shares look like they could trade toward $8.00 or its 200-dma near 8.25.
Picked on February 20 at $10.55 *triggered /stopped 9.89
Closed Short Plays