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Long Play Updates

Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 51.42 change: -2.03 stop: 47.95

The gold miners finally saw some profit taking today and the GDX dropped 2.8%. We are suggesting that readers buy the GDX in the $50.50-50.00 zone. The $50.00 level should be round-number support bolstered by its rising 50-dma. We are listing two targets. Our short-term upside target will be $54.75-55.00. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $58.00-60.00 range. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for the GDX is sporting a bullish triangle breakout with a $79 target.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 4.2 million

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Pengrowth Energy Trust - PGH - cls: 18.91 chg: +0.06 stop: 17.89

PGH is not a fast mover but it showed relative strength today. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. PGH is an oil and natural gas play and the stock should be defensive given the big dividend. This trust has a dividend in excess of 14% a year and pays out every month. The recent March low was $18.04 so we're listing a stop loss at $17.89. We are suggesting new long positions now or on a dip anywhere in the $18.00-19.00 zone. More conservative traders may want to wait for a breakout over $19.50; such a breakout would produce a new Point & Figure chart buy signal. There is potential resistance near $20.00 but we anticipate holding this stock for a while. Our target is the $21.85-22.00 zone.

Picked on March 09 at $18.85
Change since picked: + 0.06
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 966 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Coach Inc. - COH - close: 26.95 chg: -1.51 stop: 31.31

COH continued lower as expected and posted a 5% loss today. However, we want to remind readers of our concerns that the market may be near a short-term bottom. Monitor your stop losses closely. Even if you do they can be little help in a "fast market". We are going to use an aggressive (a.k.a. wide) stop loss at $31.31 to give the stock room to maneuver. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $25.25-25.00 zone. Our target is the $20.50-20.00 zone, which doesn't even come close to its trendline of lower lows. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with an $11 target. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 3.1% of the 347 million-share float or about 1.9 days worth of short interest.

Picked on March 09 at $28.46
Change since picked: - 1.51
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million

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Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 27.74 chg: -0.51 stop: 30.05 *new*

CTAS continues to slip. This is another new low. We are adjusting the stop loss to $30.05. We are not suggesting new shorts. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).

Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.08
Earnings Date 03/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Dish Network - DISH - close: 27.08 chg: -1.26 stop: 30.26

The sell-off in DISH is picking up speed. The stock lost 4.4% today and did so on strong volume. The stock is currently resting near the January lows around $27.00 so it could see a rebound from here but a failed rally near $29 would be a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $26.00-25.00 zone. FYI: The latest data put short interest at 2.3% of the 202 million-share float.

Picked on March 07 at $28.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.66
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - cls: 25.72 chg: -0.06 stop: 28.15

There wasn't much action in EBAY today. You could almost argue that EBAY's performance was a show of relative strength. The lack of movement makes us more cautious but our bias remains bearish. We are suggesting shorts here at current levels. However, readers may want to strongly consider waiting for a new relative low under $25.25 or even $25.00 before initiating positions. There is potential support near $22.80 but we're aiming for the $21.00-20.00 zone. The P&F chart happens to point to a $21 target. We are suggesting an aggressive stop loss at $28.15. More conservative traders may want to try a stop closer to $27.15 instead. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 2.7% of the 1.04 billion share float, which is about 1.5 days of short interest.

Picked on March 09 at $25.78
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 04/16/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.8 thousand

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Granite Const. - GVA - close: 28.10 change: +0.14 stop: 30.51

GVA bounced today thanks to an upgrade this morning. The early strength proved to be another entry point for shorts. The rally faded after testing resistance near $30.00 and its 10-dma. We would still consider new shorts here (but only after you have read our weekend's play editor's note). Our target is the $25.50-25.00 zone. FYI: Readers need to be aware that the most recent data puts short interest at 8.8% of the 38.9 million-share float. That is about five days worth of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March 03 at $29.85 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.75
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 760 thousand

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Kilroy Realty - KRC - close: 44.81 chg: -0.87 stop: 46.76

KRC lost 1.9% today and closed under support near $45.00. This looks like a new entry point for shorts. However, the stock has not yet hit our suggested entry point for shorts at $44.75. That will probably occur tomorrow morning. Please make sure you have read my weekend play editor's note before opening any new bearish positions. The stock is already in a long-term down trend and the Point & Figure chart is suggesting a $38 target. If triggered at $44.75 our target is the $40.40-40.00 range. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 6.9% of the 30.3 million-share float. That does elevate our risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 521 thousand

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Manitowoc - MTW - close: 38.03 chg: -0.97 stop: 41.27

We don't see any changes from our weekend comments on MTW. The trend continues to look bearish. We're suggesting shorts at current levels or a failed rally near $40.00. Our short-term target is the $35.35-35.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 6.9% of the 126 million-share float. That is an above average amount of short interest and elevates our risk for a short squeeze.

Picked on March 09 at $39.00
Change since picked: - 0.97
Earnings Date 04/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 16.80 chg: -0.30 stop: 18.55

SBUX continues to drip lower following last week's breakdown. The move lower has produced a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal on the P&F chart that now forecasts a $3.00 target. A failed rally in the $17.75-18.00 zone would be another great entry point to consider shorts. We are aiming for a short-term trip to the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

Picked on March 07 at $17.49 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.69
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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Sepracor - SEPR - close: 18.30 change: -0.44 stop: 22.05

SEPR sank to another new multi-year low. We are not suggesting new shorts at this time. SEPR is fast approaching our primary target. Right now our target is the $18.00-17.50 zone. We strongly suggest that readers cover the majority of your position there, near $18.00. Or consider taking some profits now. Our aggressive, secondary target is the $15.50-15.00 zone. Traders should expect a bounce near $17.50, which was the late June low back in 2003. FYI: Readers need to know that the most recent data puts short interest at 7.2% of the 110.5 million-share float. That is more than 3.5 days of short interest.

Picked on February 29 at $21.47
Change since picked: - 3.17
Earnings Date 02/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - close: 21.14 change: -0.27 stop: 24.16

SNDK continues to sink. The stock looks very oversold and way overdue for a bounce. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. You may want to start profit taking now. Our target is currently the $20.50-20.00 zone. FYI: The P&F chart produced a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal this past week.

Picked on February 29 at $23.99 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.85
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.9 million

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Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 28.78 change: -0.20 stop: 30.51

SWY didn't do much today. The trend remains bearish but if you haven't opened positions by now we'd probably wait (see tonight's editor's note). There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 3.9% of the 437 million-share float, which is about 4 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 29 at $28.74
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 71.19 chg: -0.77 stop: 73.11

A spike to $108 a barrel is pushing the Transports lower but UPS is still showing relative strength against its peers. At this time we're getting more turned off by UPS and would probably look to bearish plays in FDX or the IYT instead. We're not suggesting new positions in UPS. Our target is the $66.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 0.61
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

AXA - AXA - close: 30.81 change: -0.86 stop: 34.25

Target achieved. AXA slipped another 2.7% and is nearing the February lows. Our target was the $31.00-30.00 zone. Investors should probably expect a bounce near $30.00.

Picked on February 29 at $34.25 *gap down /exit target 31.00
Change since picked: - 3.44
Earnings Date 02/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million

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Blue Coat Sys. - BCSI - close: 20.04 change: -1.41 stop: 25.01

Target achieved. Looks like we should have stuck to our guns. Yesterday we adjusted our target from $20.25-20.00 to $20.50-20.00. Our concern was the potential for short covering near support at $20.00. BCSI lost 6.5% today and closed right at its lows and looks poised to keep going. The stock is very oversold and way overdue for a bounce so we're not going to complain about a $20.50 exit.

Picked on February 29 at $23.75 *triggered /exit target 20.50
Change since picked: - 3.71
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Dean Foods - DF - close: 20.30 chg: -0.44 stop: 24.05

Target achieved. DF is another play where we adjusted our target over the weekend and we didn't need to. Shares hit an intraday low of $20.25. Our adjusted target was $20.50. Shares look extremely oversold and way overdue for a bounce. The $20 level should be psychological support and a good place to expect a rebound.

Picked on February 20 at $23.95 *triggered /exit target 20.50
Change since picked: - 3.65
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

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