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Long Play Updates

Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 53.56 change: +2.14 stop: 47.95

The GDX index replaced yesterday's losses with a 4.1% gain today. We are going to stick to our plan and wait for a dip into the $50.50-50.00 zone. However, if you feel like you're going to miss the move, then more aggressive traders could buy today's bounce with a stop loss under $51.00. Another alternative entry point would be a new high over $55.00. We are listing two targets. Our short-term upside target will be $54.75-55.00. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $58.00-60.00 range. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for the GDX is sporting a bullish triangle breakout with a $79 target.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 4.2 million

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Pengrowth Energy Trust - PGH - cls: 19.11 chg: +0.20 stop: 17.89

The slow-moving shares of PGH are inching closer to a new three-month high. Volume picked up on today's rally. PGH is an oil and natural gas play and the stock should be defensive given the big dividend. This trust has a dividend in excess of 14% a year and pays out every month. The recent March low was $18.04 so we're listing a stop loss at $17.89. We are suggesting new long positions now or on a dip anywhere in the $18.00-19.00 zone. More conservative traders may want to wait for a breakout over $19.50; such a breakout would produce a new Point & Figure chart buy signal. There is potential resistance near $20.00 but we anticipate holding this stock for a while. Our target is the $21.85-22.00 zone.

Picked on March 09 at $18.85
Change since picked: + 0.26
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 966 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Coach Inc. - COH - close: 28.32 chg: +1.37 stop: 31.31

COH recouped a large portion of Monday's losses. The stock looks like it may have produced a short-term bullish reversal near $27.00. We would wait and watch for a failed rally near $29.00 or $30.00 before considering new shorts. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $25.25-25.00 zone. Our target is the $20.50-20.00 zone, which doesn't even come close to its trendline of lower lows. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with an $11 target. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 3.1% of the 347 million-share float or about 1.9 days worth of short interest.

Picked on March 09 at $28.46
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million

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Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 28.94 chg: +1.20 stop: 30.05

CTAS buttoned up a 4.3% gain and is now challenging the 10-dma thanks to the market's rally. We are not suggesting new shorts at this time. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).

Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.81
Earnings Date 03/19/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Dish Network - DISH - close: 27.66 chg: +0.58 stop: 30.26

DISH slipped to a new low of $26.62 late this morning before bouncing back into the green. We would expect the bounce to continue but DISH should hit some resistance near $29.00. Wait for signs of a failed rally before considering new shorts. Our target is the $26.00-25.00 zone. FYI: The latest data put short interest at 2.3% of the 202 million-share float.

Picked on March 07 at $28.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.08
Earnings Date 01/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - cls: 26.41 chg: +0.69 stop: 28.15

The larger trend in EBAY continues to look bearish in spite of today's 2.6% bounce. We are leaving our aggressive stop loss at $28.15 but if you're feeling more conservative then consider a stop closer to $27.15. We are not suggesting new shorts at this time but a failed rally under $27 would be tempting. Readers may want to strongly consider waiting for a new relative low under $25.25 or even $25.00 before initiating positions. There is potential support near $22.80 but we're aiming for the $21.00-20.00 zone. The P&F chart happens to point to a $21 target. We are suggesting an aggressive stop loss at $28.15. More conservative traders may want to try a stop closer to $27.15 instead. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 2.7% of the 1.04 billion share float, which is about 1.5 days of short interest.

Picked on March 09 at $25.78
Change since picked: + 0.63
Earnings Date 04/16/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.8 thousand

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Kilroy Realty - KRC - close: 47.15 chg: +2.34 stop: 46.76

Fortunately, we're still on the sidelines with KRC. The stock had failed to hit our suggested trigger yesterday. KRC gapped open higher this morning and ended the day up 5%. Shares look set to test resistance near its 50-dma and the $48.00 level soon. If triggered at $44.75 our target is the $40.40-40.00 range. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 6.9% of the 30.3 million-share float. That does elevate our risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 521 thousand

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.74 chg: +0.94 stop: 18.55

SBUX served up a 5.5% gain, albeit on lackluster volume, during the market's big bounce. The stock is nearing resistance in the $17.75-18.00 zone. We would wait and watch for a failed rally before considering new shorts. We are aiming for a short-term trip to the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

Picked on March 07 at $17.49 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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SanDisk - SNDK - close: 21.79 change: +0.65 stop: 24.16

If you don't want to give up any current gains then we suggest you strongly consider an early exit right here. The bounce in SNDK is likely to continue but we're watching for overhead resistance in the $22.50-23.00 zone and again near $24.00. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Our target is currently the $20.50-20.00 zone. FYI: The P&F chart produced a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal this past week.

Picked on February 29 at $23.99 *triggered
Change since picked: - 2.20
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.9 million

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Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 29.63 change: +0.85 stop: 30.51

SWY managed a 3% bounce on Tuesday and broke through short-term technical resistance at its 10-dma. The stock now looks poised to challenge round-number resistance near $30.00. We would wait for signs of another failed rally before considering new bearish plays. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 3.9% of the 437 million-share float, which is about 4 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 29 at $28.74
Change since picked: + 0.89
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Granite Const. - GVA - close: 30.22 change: +2.12 stop: 30.51

We are suggesting an early exit in GVA. Today's rebound was excessive. The stock added more than 7.5%. We couldn't see any specific news behind the big rally. However, the rise does complete a little short-term inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that forecast a move to $33.00. The pattern is easier to see on an intraday chart. This afternoon's close over what should have been resistance at $30.00 was the last straw.

Picked on March 03 at $29.85 *triggered /early exit
Change since picked: + 0.37
Earnings Date 02/13/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 760 thousand

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Manitowoc - MTW - close: 42.19 chg: +4.16 stop: 41.27

Shares of MTW surged more than 10.9% on Tuesday. The combination of positive analyst comments about the company's growth prospects for its crane business and a widespread market rally of huge proportions fueled a big short squeeze in MTW. Shares opened at $38.63 and then surged past potential resistance near $40, its 50-dma and its 200-dma. We would have been stopped out at $41.27. Meanwhile, after the market closed, MTW announced it was forming a joint venture with a Chinese company to gain access to the Chinese crane market.

Picked on March 09 at $39.00 /stopped 41.27
Change since picked: + 3.19
Earnings Date 04/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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Sepracor - SEPR - close: 18.54 change: +0.24 stop: 22.05

Target achieved. Shares of SEPR slipped to $17.98 before finally succumbing to the market's madness this afternoon. Our initial target was the $18.00-17.50 zone. The stock continues to under perform its peers but it's so oversold we would rather exit completely right here. Yes, we're chickening out on holding for the aggressive target in the $15.50-15.00 zone. We will keep an eye on potential resistance near $20.00 or its 10-dma.

Picked on February 29 at $21.47
Change since picked: - 2.93
Earnings Date 02/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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United Parcel Ser. - UPS - cls: 72.79 chg: +1.60 stop: 73.11

We are giving up on UPS as a bearish candidate. The stock rose 2.2% today and looks ready to breakout over resistance near $73.00. The MACD on the daily chart is nearing a new buy signal.

Picked on February 10 at $70.58
Change since picked: + 2.21
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million
 

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