Long Play Updates
Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 53.65 change: +0.09 stop: 47.95
Another sharp drop in the U.S. dollar helped lift gold futures to $980 an ounce. The GDX responded with a minor gain. We are sticking to our plan and suggesting readers buy a dip in the $50.50-50.00 zone. However, we may adjust that soon as the 50-dma is rising and near $50.46. An alternative entry point would be a new high over $55.00. We are listing two targets. Our short-term upside target will be $54.75-55.00. Our second, more aggressive target will be the $58.00-60.00 range. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for the GDX is sporting a bullish triangle breakout with a $79 target.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Pengrowth Energy Trust - PGH - cls: 19.20 chg: +0.09 stop: 17.89
PGH continues to inch closer to a bullish breakout over the late February highs. We don't see any changes from our prior comments. PGH is an oil and natural gas play and the stock should be defensive given the big dividend. This trust has a dividend in excess of 14% a year and pays out every month. The recent March low was $18.04 so we're listing a stop loss at $17.89. We are suggesting new long positions now or on a dip anywhere in the $18.00-19.00 zone. More conservative traders may want to wait for a breakout over $19.50; such a breakout would produce a new Point & Figure chart buy signal. There is potential resistance near $20.00 but we anticipate holding this stock for a while. Our target is the $21.85-22.00 zone.
Picked on March 09 at $18.85
Short Play Updates
Coach Inc. - COH - close: 28.10 chg: -0.22 stop: 31.31
The news in COH today was a management change to replace its retiring COO this coming June. The news had no affect on the stock price. COH's rebound appear to have stalled. Shares struggled with the $28.50 level all day long. This may prove to be a new entry point for shorts. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $25.25-25.00 zone. Our target is the $20.50-20.00 zone, which doesn't even come close to its trendline of lower lows. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with an $11 target. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 3.1% of the 347 million-share float or about 1.9 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 09 at $28.46
Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 28.81 chg: -0.13 stop: 30.05
The rally in CTAS faded and shares could be setting a new lower high today. We are not suggesting new shorts at this time. Our short-term target is the $27.00-26.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).
Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Dish Network - DISH - close: 28.00 chg: +0.34 stop: 30.26
DISH may have posted a gain today but the action looks bearish. We're suggesting new shorts right here. Our target is the $26.00-25.00 zone. FYI: The latest data put short interest at 2.3% of the 202 million-share float.
Picked on March 07 at $28.75 *triggered
eBay Inc. - EBAY - cls: 26.59 chg: +0.18 stop: 28.15
EBAY rallied right toward resistance in the $27.15-27.20 zone and then ran out of fuel. The move looks like a bearish failed rally pattern. This is a tempting entry point for new shorts. Readers could set their stop above today's high (27.20). Readers may want to consider an alternative entry by waiting for a new relative low under $25.25 or even $25.00 before initiating positions. There is potential support near $22.80 but we're aiming for the $21.00-20.00 zone. The P&F chart happens to point to a $21 target. We are suggesting an aggressive stop loss at $28.15. More conservative traders may want to try a stop closer to $27.15 instead. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 2.7% of the 1.04 billion share float, which is about 1.5 days of short interest.
Picked on March 09 at $25.78
Kilroy Realty - KRC - close: 46.59 chg: -0.56 stop: 46.76
The rebound in KRC is also losing steam after shares reversed below resistance around $48.00. If triggered at $44.75 our target is the $40.40-40.00 range. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 6.9% of the 30.3 million-share float. That does elevate our risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.61 chg: -0.13 stop: 18.55
SBUX managed to pierce resistance in the $17.75-18.00 zone but the rally reversed at $18.11. This looks like a new entry point for shorts. More conservative traders could adjust their stops toward today's high. We are aiming for a short-term trip to the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower. In the news today, after the closing bell, SBUX announced that its 2008 shareholder meeting will be on Wednesday, March 19th. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 07 at $17.49 *triggered
SanDisk - SNDK - close: 22.52 change: +0.73 stop: 24.16
SNDK significantly out performed the market and its peers today. Shares posted a 3.3% gain. We didn't see any company-specific news to account for this strength. We're not suggesting new shorts at this time. Our target is currently the $20.50-20.00 zone. FYI: The P&F chart produced a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal this past week.
Picked on February 29 at $23.99 *triggered
Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 29.73 change: +0.10 stop: 30.51
The trend in SWY is still very bearish but the stock managed a new two-week high. The close under $30.00 provides a little encouragement but we are at risk for an intraday spike higher tagging our stop loss. More aggressive traders may want to widen their stop just a bit. We're keeping the stop at $30.51 for now. Look for a new move under $29.25 or $29.00 before considering new shorts. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 3.9% of the 437 million-share float, which is about 4 days worth of short interest.
Picked on February 29 at $28.74
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays