Long Play Updates
Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 56.05 change: +2.40 stop: 47.95
Financial fears and another drop in the U.S. dollar finally pushed gold over $1,000 an ounce today. This spurred a big rally in the gold miners. The GDX soared 4.4% and broke out to a new high over $55.00 resistance. Unfortunately, we're still sitting on the sidelines. Our plan had been to buy a dip near $50. The closest the GDX got was $51.21 a few days ago. We are going to adjust our entry point to buy the GDX but we will wait for a dip. More aggressive traders will want to consider buying this breakout to new highs. We'll be watching the $51.50-52.50 zone as a potential entry. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for the GDX is sporting a bullish triangle breakout with a $79 target.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Pengrowth Energy Trust - PGH - cls: 19.26 chg: +0.06 stop: 17.89
PGH finally broke out to new multi-month highs after traders bought the dip near $19.00 this morning. We remain bullish here and would continue to buy the PGH. More conservative traders might want to consider a stop loss near $18.40-18.50. PGH is an oil and natural gas play and the stock should be defensive given the big dividend. This trust has a dividend in excess of 14% a year and pays out every month. There is potential resistance near $20.00 but we anticipate holding this stock for a while. Our target is the $21.85-22.00 zone.
Picked on March 09 at $18.85
Short Play Updates
Coach Inc. - COH - close: 28.38 chg: +0.28 stop: 31.31
Hmm... lack of follow through lower in COH should be bears on the alert. The stock may be building a short-term base here near $27.00. At this point it looks like a mini double-bottom pattern. Tomorrow's read on inflation with the CPI report could be a big mover for the retail stocks. More conservative traders are going to want to consider a tighter stop loss. We would also be watching for another failed rally in the $29-30 zone as a new entry point. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $25.25-25.00 zone. Our target is the $20.50-20.00 zone, which doesn't even come close to its trendline of lower lows. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with an $11 target. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 3.1% of the 347 million-share float or about 1.9 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 09 at $28.46
Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 28.95 chg: +0.14 stop: 30.05
We don't see any changes from our previous comments on CTAS. Short-term we are beginning to see signs of a possible bounce building. More conservative traders could move their stop to breakeven (29.75) or even $29.51. Our target is the $27.00-26.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).
Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Dish Network - DISH - close: 28.82 chg: +0.82 stop: 30.26
The bounce in DISH was pretty impressive. Shares posted a 2.9% gain. However, the stock is quickly nearing potential resistance near $29.00. Look for a failed rally near $29.00 or its 50-dma near 29.65 as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $26.00-25.00 zone. FYI: The latest data put short interest at 2.3% of the 202 million-share float.
Picked on March 07 at $28.75 *triggered
eBay Inc. - EBAY - cls: 26.70 chg: +0.11 stop: 28.15
EBAY continues to oscillate sideways. The overall trend remains negative. We would still consider shorts. However, readers may want to wait for a new relative low to open positions. There is potential support near $22.80 but we're aiming for the $21.00-20.00 zone. The P&F chart happens to point to a $21 target. We are suggesting an aggressive stop loss at $28.15. More conservative traders may want to try a stop closer to $27.15 instead. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 2.7% of the 1.04 billion share float, which is about 1.5 days of short interest.
Picked on March 09 at $25.78
Kilroy Realty - KRC - close: 46.83 chg: +0.24 stop: 46.76
KRC tested support near $45.00 again. We are still waiting for a breakdown to new relative lows. If triggered at $44.75 our target is the $40.40-40.00 range. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 6.9% of the 30.3 million-share float. That does elevate our risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.63 chg: +0.02 stop: 18.55
We remain bearish on SBUX with the stock under $18.00. Today's move still looks like an entry point for shorts. More conservative traders could adjust their stops toward Wednesday's high. We are aiming for a short-term trip to the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower. In the news today, after the closing bell, SBUX announced that its 2008 shareholder meeting will be on Wednesday, March 19th. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 07 at $17.49 *triggered
SanDisk - SNDK - close: 23.00 change: +0.48 stop: 24.16
An oversold bounce in SNDK is really eating up our unrealized gains. The stock has now cleared short-term technical resistance at its 10-dma. The next challenge for the bulls is resistance near $24.00. The volume behind today's move is what worries us. Volume was close to double the norm. Big volume on a gain like this should make shorts nervous. We need to be defensive here. Consider taking some money off the table. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is currently the $20.50-20.00 zone. FYI: The P&F chart produced a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal this past week.
Picked on February 29 at $23.99 *triggered
Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 29.54 change: -0.19 stop: 30.51
We have nothing new to report on for SWY. The stock is churning sideways in the $29-30 zone. The overall trend continues to be bearish. We are at risk for an intraday spike higher tagging our stop loss. More aggressive traders may want to widen their stop just a bit. We're keeping the stop at $30.51 for now. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 3.9% of the 437 million-share float, which is about 4 days worth of short interest.
Picked on February 29 at $28.74
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays