Long Play Updates
Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 56.42 change: +0.37 stop: 49.90
Gold has broken out over $1,000 an ounce this past week. Normally, we would expect some profit taking, maybe a real correction, after hitting this psychological level of resistance. However, with investor fears still high for the stock market and the U.S. dollar falling gold may continue to run. We are adjusting our entry point strategy for the GDX. We're now looking for a dip into the $53.50-52.50 zone. We're suggesting a stop loss at $49.90 but more conservative traders could try and play with a stop closer to $51.00. If triggered at $53.50 our target is the $59.00-60.00 zone. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for the GDX is sporting a bullish triangle breakout with a $79 target.
We'll also be keeping an eye on the GLD and the IAU for potential short-term trades in gold.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Pengrowth Energy Trust - PGH - cls: 19.34 chg: +0.08 stop: 17.89
The PGH just posted its fifth gain in a row. This oil and gas trust is hitting new multi-month highs. We would continue to buy it here or on a dip near $19.00. More conservative traders might want to consider a stop loss near $18.40-18.50. The stock should be defensive given the big dividend. This trust has a dividend in excess of 14% a year and pays out every month. There is potential resistance near $20.00 but we anticipate holding this stock for a while. Our target is the $21.85-22.00 zone.
Picked on March 09 at $18.85
Short Play Updates
Coach Inc. - COH - close: 28.03 chg: -0.35 stop: 31.31
The overall trend in COH is still very bearish but we can't deny that the downward momentum stalled this past week. Shares have bounced twice near $27.00. More conservative traders are going to want to consider a tighter stop loss. We would also be watching for another failed rally in the $29-30 zone as a new entry point. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $25.25-25.00 zone. Our second, more-aggressive target is the $20.50-20.00 zone, which doesn't even come close to its trendline of lower lows. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with an $11 target. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 3.1% of the 347 million-share float or about 1.9 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 09 at $28.46
Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 28.10 chg: -0.85 stop: 29.75*new*
This is it. We're down to our last three days with CTAS. The company is due to report earnings on March 19th after the closing bell. We are adjusting our stop loss to $29.75. If CTAS doesn't hit our target at $27.00 we will plan to exit at the close on Wednesday to avoid holding over earnings. Given this time frame we are not suggesting new positions. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).
Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Dish Network - DISH - close: 27.74 chg: -1.08 stop: 30.26
Entry point alert! DISH has produced a failed rally under its 50-dma. This is a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $26.00-25.00 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. We are considering a secondary target near $22.50. FYI: The latest data put short interest at 2.3% of the 202 million-share float.
Picked on March 07 at $28.75 *triggered
eBay Inc. - EBAY - cls: 26.25 chg: -0.45 stop: 28.15
Nothing has changed much for EBAY. We suspect they are going to have a really rough quarter with their core business. Friday was just more of the same for EBAY. The stock continues to churn sideways. However, if you wanted to get picky, Friday's move did produce a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Plus, the overall trend continues to look bearish. We would still consider shorts right here. Yet more conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative low under $25.30 to initiate positions. There is potential support near $22.80 but we're aiming for the $21.00-20.00 zone. The P&F chart happens to point to a $21 target. We are suggesting an aggressive stop loss at $28.15. More conservative traders may want to try a stop closer to $27.15 instead. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 2.7% of the 1.04 billion-share float, which is about 1.5 days of short interest.
Picked on March 09 at $25.78
Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.39 chg: -0.24 stop: 18.55
SBUX continues to drift lower. The path of least resistance should continue to be down. We would still consider new shorts with SBUX under $18.00. We are aiming for a short-term trip to the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower. In the news today, after the closing bell, SBUX announced that its 2008 shareholder meeting will be on Wednesday, March 19th. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 07 at $17.49 *triggered
SanDisk - SNDK - close: 22.15 change: -0.85 stop: 24.01 *new*
Negative analyst comments on Friday helped push SNDK to a 3.7% loss on Friday. We are not going to complain. The oversold bounce had been eating up a lot of our potential gains. We remain bearish on the stock but readers might want to consider taking some money off the table. We are adjusting the stop loss to $24.01. Our target is currently the $20.50-20.00 zone. FYI: The P&F chart produced a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal this past week.
Picked on February 29 at $23.99 *triggered
Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 29.06 change: -0.48 stop: 30.51
We'd like to think SWY is poised for another leg lower but this last week has just been more sideways action. Friday did see a failed rally near $30.00 and a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern but this needs confirmation. The overall trend is still bearish. A new move under Friday's low (28.64) could be used as an entry point for shorts. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 3.9% of the 437 million-share float, which is about 4 days worth of short interest.
Picked on February 29 at $28.74
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays
Kilroy Realty - KRC - close: 46.29 chg: -0.54 stop: 46.76
The volatility in the markets and shares of KRC on Friday was enough to both hit our trigger for shorts and then bounce back to hit our stop loss at $46.76. We were trying to limit our risk with a stop loss at about 5% above our entry price. Evidently that was too tight. KRC continues to have resistance near $48.00, which may have been a better choice. We would still consider new shorts on a new low under $44.50.
Picked on March 14 at $44.75 *triggered/stopped 46.76