Long Play Updates
Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 54.97 change: -1.45 stop: 49.90
Nothing was safe today, not even gold or the gold miners. Gold did hit another new high but it pulled back. Meanwhile the miners hit some profit taking. The GDX hit an intraday low of $54.04. We are suggesting readers buy the GDX in the $53.50-52.50 zone. We're suggesting a stop loss at $49.90 but more conservative traders could try and play with a stop closer to $51.00. If triggered at $53.50 our target is the $59.00-60.00 zone. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for the GDX is sporting a bullish triangle breakout with a $79 target.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Pengrowth Energy Trust - PGH - cls: 18.76 chg: -0.58 stop: 17.89
Shares of PGH erased about two weeks of gains with today's profit taking but investors were buying the dip near $18.50. We remain bullish on the oil sector and PGH continues to look attractive here. More conservative traders might want to consider a stop loss near $18.40-18.50. The stock should be defensive given the big dividend. This trust has a dividend in excess of 14% a year and pays out every month. There is potential resistance near $20.00 but we anticipate holding this stock for a while. Our target is the $21.85-22.00 zone.
Picked on March 09 at $18.85
Short Play Updates
Akamai Tech - AKAM - close: 29.69 chg: -1.50 stop: 33.55
AKAM continues to look weak. The stock lost 4.8% today and did so on average volume. If there is a bounce tomorrow the $30-32 zone should be overhead resistance. We have two targets. Our first target is the $27.75-27.50 zone. Our second target is the $25.50-25.50 range. FYI: Traders need to know that the most recent data puts short interest in AKAM at more than 12% of the 161.6 million-share float. That is an above average amount of short interest and raises our risk for a short squeeze!
Picked on March 16 at $31.19
Coach Inc. - COH - close: 26.93 chg: -1.10 stop: 31.31
Shares of COH were downgraded to a "hold" this morning. The news didn't seem to matter much. COH gapped down at the open like many stocks today. Shares hit $26.14 intraday before bouncing. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $25.25-25.00 zone. Our second, more-aggressive target is the $20.50-20.00 zone, which doesn't even come close to its trendline of lower lows. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with an $11 target. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 3.1% of the 347 million-share float or about 1.9 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 09 at $28.46
Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 27.99 chg: -0.11 stop: 29.75
We've got two days to go with CTAS. The company is due to report earnings on March 19th after the closing bell. If CTAS doesn't hit our target at $27.00 we will plan to exit at the close on Wednesday to avoid holding over earnings. Given this time frame we are not suggesting new positions. The P&F chart is bearish with a $24 target. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 1.7% of the 131 million-share float. That is a short ratio of 1.5 (about 1.5 days worth of average volume to cover).
Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
eBay Inc. - EBAY - cls: 25.77 chg: -0.48 stop: 28.15
EBAY lost 1.8% on the session. The stock actually traded to a new multi-year low before bouncing this afternoon. Our outlook remains bearish on EBAY. We would still consider shorts right here. There is potential support near $22.80 but we're aiming for the $21.00-20.00 zone. The P&F chart happens to point to a $21 target. We are suggesting an aggressive stop loss at $28.15. More conservative traders may want to try a stop closer to $27.15 instead. FYI: The most recent data lists short interest at 2.7% of the 1.04 billion-share float, which is about 1.5 days of short interest.
Picked on March 09 at $25.78
Group 1 Auto - GPI - close: 22.44 chg: -0.48 stop: 24.51
GPI is still sliding lower. We suspect that GPI will retest support near $20.00. Our target is the $20.35-20.00 zone. This week could bring news for GPI. The company is presenting at a conference on March 18th at 3:00 p.m. Eastern time. FYI: It is very important that readers note the high short interest in GPI. The most recent data lists short interest at more than 21% of the 20.8 million-share float. That's a high amount of short interest and a small float, which significant raises our risk for a short squeeze.
Picked on March 16 at $22.92
Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.26 chg: -0.13 stop: 18.55
SBUX didn't really move much today but we did notice that volume spiked to above average levels. Shares look like they are coiling for another leg lower. We are aiming for a short-term trip to the $15.05-15.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim lower. In the news today, after the closing bell, SBUX announced that its 2008 shareholder meeting will be on Wednesday, March 19th. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.
Picked on March 07 at $17.49 *triggered
SanDisk - SNDK - close: 21.60 change: -0.55 stop: 24.01
Today's decline in SNDK should confirm Friday's bearish engulfing candlestick. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Instead readers may want to consider taking some money off the table here or near $21.00. Our target is currently the $20.50-20.00 zone. FYI: The P&F chart produced a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal this past week.
Picked on February 29 at $23.99 *triggered
Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 28.27 change: -0.79 stop: 30.51
SWY sinks to another new relative low. The stock did pare its losses by the closing bell but ended the day down 2.7%. Volume was about average. We would still consider new shorts here or look for another failed rally. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 3.9% of the 437 million-share float, which is about 4 days worth of short interest.
Picked on February 29 at $28.74
Closed Long Plays
FMC Tech. - FTI - close: 55.31 chg: -2.99 stop: 54.45
FTI was a fresh new bullish play from our weekend newsletter. Sadly a panic sell-off in stocks and oil as traders rushed to take profits on anything they could hit shares of FTI for a 5% loss. FTI gapped open lower at $56.83 and plunged to $53.49 (-8%) intraday before bouncing back. We remain bullish on the oil service plays like FTI but we'll wait another day or two and see how things shake out. A rebound near its 200-dma or the $50 zone might be an attractive entry point or a new rise past $58 or $59 again would be tempting.
Picked on March 16 at $ 58.18
Closed Short Plays
Dish Network - DISH - close: 26.64 chg: -1.10 stop: 30.26
Target achieved. DISH continues to sink. The stock lost 3.9% on above average volume today. The intraday low was $25.72. Our target was the $26.00-25.00 zone. The trend still looks very bearish and we would be very tempted to aim lower. The play is closed for us but more aggressive traders might want to aim for the $22.50 region.
Picked on March 07 at $28.75 *triggered /target hit $26.00