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In Play Updates and Reviews

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Long Play Updates

Pengrowth Energy Trust - PGH - cls: 18.50 chg: -0.61 stop: 17.89

Shares of PGH were another casualty of the sell-off in commodities today. This stock lost more than 3% as traders sold it back toward support near $18.50. We are actually starting to see some short-term sell signals on PGH's charts. The $18.00 level still looks like decent support though. More conservative traders might want to consider a stop loss near $18.40-18.50. The stock should be defensive given the big dividend. This trust has a dividend in excess of 14% a year and pays out every month. There is potential resistance near $20.00 but we anticipate holding this stock for a while. Our target is the $21.85-22.00 zone. FYI: PGH just announced that it has completed its filing of its annual disclosure documents. You can find them all at the company website: www.pengrowth.com

Picked on March 09 at $18.85
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 966 thousand

Short Play Updates

Akamai Tech - AKAM - close: 29.37 chg: -2.03 stop: 32.55

Wow! AKAM gave back all of yesterday's gains. The stock produced a perfect failed rally at resistance near $32.00 this morning and then plunged lower. This is a new entry point for shorts. We have two targets. Our first target is the $27.75-27.50 zone. Our second target is the $25.50-25.50 range. FYI: Traders need to know that the most recent data puts short interest in AKAM at more than 12% of the 161.6 million-share float. That is an above average amount of short interest and raises our risk for a short squeeze!

Picked on March 16 at $31.19
Change since picked: - 1.82
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.8 million


Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.50 chg: -0.74 stop: 18.55

Entry point alert! Shares of SBUX have produced a very clear bearish reversal at $18.50. I know there are a lot of pundits out there saying this is where you're supposed to buy SBUX but the trend is still very bearish and SBUX is facing some strong headwinds if we are in a consumer-lead recession. The company did hold its annual shareholder meeting today. SBUX unveiled some new initiatives in an effort to reclaim lost customers and instill deeper brand loyalty. There are some decent ideas (see link below) and SBUX needs to do something since it is facing stiffer competition from its rivals. However, it's going to take time to put these ideas into place and see if they pay off. Our target on SBUX is the $15.05-15.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

SBUX press release about new initiatives

Picked on March 07 at $17.49 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million


Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 28.78 change: -0.39 stop: 30.26

Today's move in SWY also looks like a new entry point for bearish positions. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 3.9% of the 437 million-share float, which is about 4 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 29 at $28.74
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

Closed Long Plays

Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 49.37 change: -3.02 stop: 49.45

Anything related to commodities just got hammered today. Gold futures crumbled and posted a 5.7% loss. The GDX gold miners index followed suit and lost 5.7% and did so on big volume. The GDX actually gapped open lower at $51.62 and then slipped to $49.50 for most of the day before dipping under $49.00 and tagging its 100-dma right near the closing bell. Our recently adjusted stop loss was hit at $49.45. The GDX has seen a 12.5% drop in just the last three days. This ETF is short-term oversold and due for a bounce but we probably wouldn't bet on one just yet. Keep an eye on the GDX to pull back toward support near $45.00 and its rising 200-dma. That might be a decent spot to consider bullish positions.

Picked on March 18 at $53.50 *triggered /stopped 49.45
Change since picked: - 4.13
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 4.2 million

Closed Short Plays

Cintas Corp. - CTAS - close: 28.73 chg: +0.20 stop: 29.75

We are out of time with our CTAS short. It was our plan to exit today at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings. We don't see what caused the gap higher this morning. Shares hit an intraday high of $29.70 before plunging toward the closing bell. After the bell CTAS reported earnings and missed estimates by 1 cent. Then they guided lower going forward. Yet we don't see any big after hours move on the earnings warning.

Picked on February 15 at $29.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.02
Earnings Date 03/19/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million


Group 1 Auto - GPI - close: 23.88 chg: +0.01 stop: 24.51

It was a frustrating day with GPI. The stock only closed up 1 cent but the intraday volatility was enough to hit our stop loss at $24.51. Shares rallied to $24.82 and then reversed lower. This is another lower high and suggests more weakness ahead. If you're nimble enough we would consider new shorts right here with a stop above today's high. However, for us, the play has been closed. We'll definitely be watching for another entry point.

Picked on March 16 at $22.92
Change since picked: + 0.96
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 535 thousand

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