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Long Play Updates

iShares Dow Jones Telecom - IYZ - close: 23.66 chg: +0.04 stop: 22.24

Right on cue shares of IYZ pulled back and traders bought the dip at $23.25. We were suggesting readers buy IYZ in the $23.50-23.00 zone. The play is now open and we have two targets. Our 1st target is the $25.85-26.00 range. Our second target is the $27.85-28.00 zone.

Picked on March 25 at $23.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.16
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 429 thousand

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Coca-Cola - KO - close: 61.41 chg: +0.23 stop: 57.99

The relative strength in KO is encouraging but we don't want to chase it. We're going to stick to our plan and wait for a dip. We're suggesting readers buy KO in the $60.05-59.50 range. We'll suggest a stop loss at $57.99. Our target is the $64.50-65.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $90 target.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.9 million

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Microsoft - MSFT - close: 29.14 chg: -0.03 stop: 27.19

Traders bought the dip in MSFT's rising 10-dma today and shares look poised to move higher. However, the YHOO merger is still a dark cloud over the stock. Shares of MSFT could initially spike lower if the company does raise its offer price for YHOO. That is probably our biggest risk. At the same time shares could rise once a deal is announced just because it would make it that much harder for YHOO to walk away and investors would feel we would be closer to a resolution. Overall we remain bullish on MSFT but you may want to try and buy a dip near its 10-dma (like today). Our suggested stop loss is at $27.19. If you want to be more aggressive put your stop under $27.00 and more conservative traders could try putting your stop around $28.25 but that maybe too close. There is potential resistance with some significant moving averages overhead. However, we are aiming for the $32.00-33.00 zone.

Picked on March 23 at $29.18
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 114 million

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Meritage Homes - MTH - close: 20.87 chg: +1.97 stop: 15.90

MTH is our short squeeze play and the shorts are definitely getting squeezed. The stock is up another 10.4% today alone. Adding fuel to the fire in MTH was an analyst upgrade this morning. The stock was upgraded to an "out perform". MTH's rally past potential round-number resistance at $20.00 is bullish. We would not chase it here. Wait for a dip before considering new positions. More conservative traders could start taking some money off the table. This remains an aggressive play. Our target is the $25.00-27.00 zone. The P&F chart is bullish with a $28 target. FYI: MTH is due to present at an analyst conference on March 26th.

Picked on March 24 at $18.60 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.27
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 893 thousand

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99 Cents Only Stores - NDN - cls: 10.96 chg: +0.06 stop: 9.49

Hmm... NDN may not want to cooperate with us. We are suggesting readers buy a dip in the $10.30-10.00 zone. Bulls bought the dip at $10.60 today. That's a 3.3% rally off its lows today. We are going to stick to our plan for now and wait for the pull back to $10.30. We'll set the stop at $9.49 (more conservative traders could try one closer to $10.00 but that might be too tight). Our target is the $11.95-12.00 range.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million
 

Short Play Updates

Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.99 chg: +0.10 stop: 18.55

SBUX is still drifting sideways inside its larger, bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Another failed rally under its 50-dma (near $18.50) can be used as an entry point for shorts. Our target on SBUX is the $15.05-15.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 3.4% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2 days worth of short interest.

Picked on March 07 at $17.49 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.50
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 28.70 change: -0.20 stop: 30.26

SWY continues to meander lower. The path of least resistance appears to be down. We will continue to play the trend. However, there were some positive analyst comments made today about the grocers. A Bank of America analyst suggested that the grocers should do well because more people eat at home during an economic recession. That makes a lot of sense. The restaurant stocks have been hammered over the last few months because the market is worried people will eat out less due to uncertainty and the economic downturn. People still have to eat so it should stand to reason that they will eat at home, which means more business for the grocers. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 3.9% of the 437 million-share float, which is about 4 days worth of short interest.

Picked on February 29 at $28.74
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 02/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

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Closed Short Plays

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