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Long Play Updates

Excel Maritime - EXM - close: 30.91 change: -1.12 stop: 27.45

EXM is a new bullish candidate from the Thursday night newsletter. We do not see any changes from our original comments. However, we are going to narrow the suggested entry range from $30.60-30.00 to $30.30-30.00. EXM did not trade under $30.61 this past Friday but we expect it will trade down toward $30.00 early this week (probably Monday). Our stop loss is at $27.45. More conservative traders could try a tighter stop in the $28.00-29.00 zone. Our target is the $35.00-37.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart is much more bullish with a $45 target. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 902 thousand

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Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 24.12 chg: -0.05 stop: 23.45

We continue to think that GLW has held up pretty well this past week especially after the earnings warning from JBL earlier. While the stock has resisted any serious selling it's not seeing much buying interest either. Our market bias is turning more bearish again so we'd probably wait for a move over $24.75 before considering new bullish positions in GLW. More conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop near $23.75 instead of our suggested stop at $23.45. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $27.00 level. Our second target is the $29.00 level. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 25 at $25.14
Change since picked: - 1.02
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14.7 million

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Honeywell - HON - close: 55.85 chg: +0.85 stop: 53.45

We were pleasantly surprised to see HON's relative strength on Friday. As of Thursday night the stock looked poised to retest its lows. While the Friday bounce is nice we remain defensive here and we're not suggesting new positions. Currently we're debating on whether or not to raise our stop loss to $54.45. HON has found support near $55 in the past but real support is near the bottom of the channel around $52.50ish. Considering the market's performance lately more conservative traders may still want to consider an early exit to cut their losses now! Our target is the $59.90-60.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim for the top of the larger range near $62.00. Keep in mind that we do not want to hold over the earnings report in about three weeks.

Picked on March 25 at $56.00
Change since picked: - 0.15
Earnings Date 04/18/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.7 million

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iShares Telecom - IYZ - close: 23.07 chg: -0.23 stop: 22.49 *new*

The Dow Jones Telecom iShares continues to follow the market lower. Fortunately, the ETF has only pulled back to short-term support near $23.00 and its 10-dma. This should actually be an attractive entry point to buy the IYZ but we're feeling defensive here given the market's performance so we are adjusting the stop loss to $22.49. More conservative traders may want to go even tighter with their stop. You may want to wait for a bounce first before considering new bullish positions. We have two targets. Our 1st target is the $25.85-26.00 range. Our second target is the $27.85-28.00 zone.

Picked on March 25 at $23.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.43
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 429 thousand

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JA Solar - JASO - close: 19.00 change: +1.09 stop: 15.90 *new*

The short squeeze...err.. I mean the rally in solar energy stocks continued on Friday. JASO rose more than 6% following headlines that one analyst firm started coverage on it with a "buy". The stock is now challenging its 100-dma. The group is starting to look short-term overbought but they can always get more overbought. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. With JASO up more than 10% from our picked price readers may want to take some profits off the table here. The stock just produced one of its biggest one-week rallies in its history. You have to expect some profit taking soon! We are raising our stop loss to $15.90. We have two targets. Our first target is $19.95. Our second, more aggressive target is the $22.25-22.50 zone.

Picked on March 25 at $17.13
Change since picked: + 1.87
Earnings Date 05/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.1 million

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Meritage Homes - MTH - close: 18.26 chg: -0.57 stop: 16.49 *new*

We want to remind readers that MTH is a high-risk, aggressive trade. The homebuilders have been very volatile lately and MTH is seeing some decent intraday swings for a stock at this price level. We still feel that MTH is a huge candidate for a short squeeze. The most recent data put short interest at more than 40% of the very small 22 million-share float. This was almost two weeks of short interest. The breakout over resistance in the $17.50-18.00 zone should have the bears scared out of their wits. Unfortunately, the rally has run into trouble with a lot of negative press for the homebuilders in the last couple of days. We are raising our stop loss to $16.49, which is still pretty wide (a.k.a. aggressive). More conservative traders may want to put their stop closer to $17.00 since broken resistance near $17.50 should now be support. A bounce anywhere in the $17.00-18.00 region would look like a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $25.00-27.00 zone. The P&F chart is bullish with a $28 target.

Picked on March 24 at $18.60 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 893 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.05 chg: -0.57 stop: 18.11 *new*

After flirting with a breakout over $18.50 and then $18.00 in the last couple of weeks SBUX has finally turned lower again. The stock has broken its two-week trend of higher lows. This looks like another entry point for shorts but note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $18.11. Our target on SBUX is the $15.05-15.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 4.6% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2.7 days worth of short interest. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $3.00 target (that's not a typo). Longer-term traders may want to aim lower than $15.00.

Picked on March 07 at $17.49 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 28.33 change: -0.23 stop: 30.05*new*

SWY is still moving pretty slowly but Friday's decline is a breakdown from its recent sideways trading range. The stock is still trading in a three-month bearish channel. The path of least resistance definitely looks like it's down. More conservative traders might want to start thinking about tighter stops (maybe near $29.50 or $29.00). We are inching our stop down to $30.05. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 3.3% of the 437 million-share float.

Picked on February 29 at $28.74
Change since picked: - 0.41
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Coca-Cola - KO - close: 60.94 chg: -0.37 stop: 57.99

KO is actually holding up reasonably well considering the broader market. However, we have lost our taste for the stock and weakness in the Dow Industrials doesn't bode well for this index component. The plan was to buy a dip in the $60.05-59.59 range. That hasn't happened yet so we're dropping it unopened. We would still keep KO on our watch list and look to see if shares do indeed find support near $60 again. We'll reconsider bullish positions if KO can rebound around the $60 region.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.9 million

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Microsoft - MSFT - close: 27.91 chg: -0.14 stop: 27.19

MSFT has really been under performing the last three days. I still believe the $27.00-28.00 zone is probably a bottom of the stock but we're seeing too many technical sell signals to hold on to it. Friday's close under $28.00 was the last straw. We're suggesting an early exit now to cut our losses. We will definitely keep an eye on it so see if we can jump in on a bounce close to the $27.00 mark. FYI: The P&F chart is pointing to a $25 target.

Picked on March 23 at $29.18 /exiting early 27.91
Change since picked: - 1.27
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 114 million

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99 Cents Only Stores - NDN - cls: 9.81 chg: -0.42 stop: 9.49

Shares of NDN are not cooperating. We did get the pull back toward $10 like we wanted but shares just kept right on falling. To be fair the retail sector was hammered on Friday thanks to an earnings warning from J.C.Penney (JCP). NDN lost another 4% on Friday and is now down more than 11% from its highs of last week. Honestly, the drop under its 200-dma and the $10.00 mark is very bearish. While NDN is probably short-term oversold and due for a bounce we don't want to wait around for it. The next level of support is the $9.50 region. We'd rather exit early right here and cut our losses short than see NDN stop us out at $9.49. We can always consider jumping back in if the stock rebounds.

Picked on March 27 at $10.30 *triggered /exiting early 9.81
Change since picked: - 0.49
Earnings Date 05/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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