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Long Play Updates

Excel Maritime - EXM - close: 29.35 change: -1.56 stop: 27.45

Warning! We are seeing a potential bearish reversal in progress with EXM. Today's action in EXM and many of the shipping stocks was pretty negative. More than one shipping stock broke down under support like EXM today. There was no specific news that I could find to account for the sell-off other than maybe end of quarter window undressing. We had been suggesting that readers buy the dip in the $30.30-30.00 zone. That level was hit today so the play is now open. However, we would not consider new plays with EXM under $30.00 - at least not at this time. Nimble traders might want to consider buying a bounce near $28.00. More conservative traders may want to seriously consider exiting early if you did open positions this morning. The drop under $30.00 is a big concern right now. Or you could just try a tighter stop in the $28.00-29.00 zone. Our target is the $35.00-37.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart is much more bullish with a $45 target. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report.

Picked on March 31 at $30.30 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.95
Earnings Date 05/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 902 thousand

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Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 24.04 chg: -0.08 stop: 23.45

Traders bought the dip at GLW's 30-dma this morning. That's normally a positive sign but we are definitely seeing a one-week trendline of lower highs. Consider waiting for a new rally over $24.25 or $24.50 before considering new bullish positions on GLW (or even our weekend suggestion of $24.75). More conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop near $23.65 instead of our suggested stop at $23.45. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $27.00 level. Our second target is the $29.00 level. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 25 at $25.14
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14.7 million

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Honeywell - HON - close: 56.42 chg: +0.57 stop: 53.45

HON surprised us again with a decent move on Monday. The stock is definitely suggesting that it has found a bottom. If you are interested in bullish plays consider buying a dip near $56.00 or $55.85. More conservative traders might want to use a tighter stop loss. Our target is the $59.90-60.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim for the top of the larger range near $62.00. Keep in mind that we do not want to hold over the earnings report in about three weeks.

Picked on March 25 at $56.00
Change since picked: + 0.42
Earnings Date 04/18/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.7 million

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Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 41.66 change: +0.04 stop: 39.85

HRL started the session off strong with a gap open higher at $41.83. That was three cents higher than our suggested entry point to buy the stock at $41.80 so the play is now open. Our target is the $45.75-46.00 range. If you missed the move this morning we would still consider bullish positions now. More conservative traders might want to wait for a new high over $42.50 before initiating positions. We anticipate holding this stock on the newsletter for about six to eight weeks. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $64 target.

Picked on March 31 at $41.83 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 513 thousand

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iShares Telecom - IYZ - close: 23.37 chg: +0.30 stop: 22.49

Bulls bought the dip near $23.00 and today's bounce looks like a new entry point to go long. While we are suggesting new positions more conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss. We have two targets. Our 1st target is the $25.85-26.00 range. Our second target is the $27.85-28.00 zone.

Picked on March 25 at $23.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.13
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 429 thousand

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JA Solar - JASO - close: 18.60 change: -0.40 stop: 15.90

JASO had an amazing week last week so a little profit taking was to be expected. Hopefully it was some of our readers doing the profit taking! We would not be surprised to see a dip into the $18.00-17.50 zone. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We have two targets. Our first target is $19.95. Our second, more aggressive target is the $22.25-22.50 zone.

Picked on March 25 at $17.13
Change since picked: + 1.47
Earnings Date 05/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.1 million

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Meritage Homes - MTH - close: 19.32 chg: +1.06 stop: 16.49

The homebuilders rallied sharply on Monday and MTH added 5.8%. Looks like broken resistance did indeed act as support (near $18.00). MTH is a huge candidate for a short squeeze so this move could launch into another leg higher. The most recent data put short interest at more than 40% of the very small 22 million-share float. This was almost two weeks of short interest. More conservative traders may want to put their stop closer to $17.00 since broken resistance near $17.50 should now be support. Our target is the $25.00-27.00 zone. The P&F chart is bullish with a $28 target.

Picked on March 24 at $18.60 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.72
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 893 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Cognizant Tech - CTSH - cls: 28.83 chg: -0.35 stop: 31.01

There was no end of quarter rebound for CTSH. The stock continued lower and posted a 1.1% decline. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We're suggesting a stop loss above the 100-dma. Our first target is the 26.25-26.00 zone. Our second, more aggressive target is the $24.25-24.00 range. FYI: CTSH is due to present at an analyst conference on March 31st. The P&F chart is bearish with an $18 target. We don't see any serious short interest listed (it's around 2.7%).

Picked on March 30 at $29.18
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.1 million

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Longs Drug Stores - LDG - cls: 42.46 chg: +1.16 stop: 43.55

All the drugstore stocks were bouncing and LDG led the way with a 2.8% gain. It could just be a reaction to the short-term oversold bounce in the retail sector. However, LDG actually gapped open higher, which is a potential warning flag for the bears. We would wait and watch for a clear failed rally near $43.00 or wait for a new decline under $42.00-41.50 before considering new short positions. Our first target is the $38.25-38.00 zone. Our second target is the $35.25-35.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $29.00 target.

Picked on March 30 at $41.30
Change since picked: + 1.16
Earnings Date 05/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 596 thousand

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Starbucks - SBUX - close: 17.50 chg: +0.45 stop: 18.11

We can't tell if SBUX's 2.6% gain today was end of quarter short covering or end of quarter bargain hunting. Whatever the case the trend remains unchanged and the path of least resistance is still down. A failed rally under $18.00 would be another entry point for bearish positions. Our target on SBUX is the $15.05-15.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 4.6% of the 703 million-share float, which is about 2.7 days worth of short interest. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $3.00 target (that's not a typo). Longer-term traders may want to aim lower than $15.00.

Picked on March 07 at $17.01
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 29.35 change: +1.02 stop: 30.05

Warning! We are seeing a potential bullish reversal in SWY today. The stock rose 3.6% and broke through one of its bearish trendlines today. We didn't see any huge news but there was a headline that said a couple of grocery store chains, SWY being one of them, may have avoided a strike by 25,000 workers after working out a potential deal with the United Food and Commercial Workers Union in the Baltimore-Washington area. More conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop near $29.50 but any follow through on this rally tomorrow would probably stop you out near $29.50. There appears to be some support near $26.00 so we are suggesting a target in the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22.00 target. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at 3.3% of the 437 million-share float.

Picked on February 29 at $28.74
Change since picked: + 0.61
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

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