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Long Play Updates

Excel Maritime - EXM - close: 30.00 change: +0.65 stop: 28.39*new*

Traders bought the dip in EXM near $29 again and the stock posted a 2.2% gain. Normally a gain like that would be a good day but on a day like today it looks like relative weakness. We would wait for a new rally over $30.25 or $30.30 before considering new bullish positions. We'll try and reduce our risk with a stop loss at $28.39. More conservative traders may want to consider a stop closer to $29.00 instead. Our target is the $35.00-37.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart is much more bullish with a $45 target. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report.

Picked on March 31 at $30.30 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.30
Earnings Date 05/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 902 thousand

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Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 24.95 chg: +0.91 stop: 23.45

Today's 3.8% gain in GLW has brought us almost back to breakeven. The move looks like a new entry point for bullish positions or consider buying a dip near $24.50. More conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop near $23.65 instead of our suggested stop at $23.45. We're listing two targets. Our first target is the $27.00 level. Our second target is the $29.00 level. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 25 at $25.14
Change since picked: - 0.19
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14.7 million

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Honeywell - HON - close: 57.79 chg: +1.37 stop: 54.49 *new*

HON continues to rally. Shares added another 2.4%. The MACD is now two days into a new buy signal. The share price has broken out past its simple 50-dma and is nearing potential resistance near $58.00 and its 200-dma. If you are looking for a new bullish entry point consider a dip near $56.75-56.50. We are raising our stop loss to $54.49. Our target is the $59.90-60.00 zone. More aggressive traders could aim for the top of the larger range near $62.00. Keep in mind that we do not want to hold over the earnings report in about three weeks.

Picked on March 25 at $56.00
Change since picked: + 1.79
Earnings Date 04/18/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.7 million

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Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 42.18 change: +0.52 stop: 39.85

HRL continues to march higher. The stock closed at its high for the day, which is normally a bullish sign for the next session. The stock might find some resistance in the $42.40-42.50 zone so don't be surprised to see a pull back. Any dips near $41.75-41.50 are probably entry points. More conservative traders might want to wait for a new high over $42.50 before initiating positions. We anticipate holding this stock on the newsletter for about six to eight weeks. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $64 target. FYI: HRL declared a quarterly cash dividend of 18.5 cents per share payable on May 15, 2008 to shareholders of record on April 19th. HRL has been paying quarterly dividends for almost 80 years.

Picked on March 31 at $41.83 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: + 0.35
Earnings Date 05/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 513 thousand

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iShares Telecom - IYZ - close: 24.19 chg: +0.82 stop: 22.49

It was a very strong day for the IYZ, which posted a 3.5% gain and a new four-week high. Volume came in above average on the gain, which is bullish. The stock closed over potential resistance near $24.00 and will soon be challenging technical resistance at its 50-dma. We have two targets. Our 1st target is the $25.85-26.00 range. Our second target is the $27.85-28.00 zone.

Picked on March 25 at $23.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.69
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 429 thousand

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JA Solar - JASO - close: 18.87 change: +0.27 stop: 15.90

Traders were buying the dips in JASO near $18.00 but today's 1.4% gain looks like relative weakness compared to the rest of the market. We remain bullish but we're not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders might want to move their stop to breakeven at $17.13 or move their stop closer to $17.85 or $18.00 to reduce their risk. The stock is up about 10% from our picked price so readers may want to take some profits here. We have two targets. Our first target is $19.95. Our second, more aggressive target is the $22.25-22.50 zone.

Picked on March 25 at $17.13
Change since picked: + 1.74
Earnings Date 05/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.1 million

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Meritage Homes - MTH - close: 21.15 chg: +1.83 stop: 16.49

The homebuilders were some of the best performing stocks today. The DJUSHB index surged 7.7%. Shares of MTH out performed its peers with a 9.4% gain. The stock is up almost 14% from our picked price. Readers might want to consider taking some money off the table right here. We remain bullish but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. MTH is a huge candidate for a short squeeze. The most recent data put short interest at more than 40% of the very small 22 million-share float. This was almost two weeks of short interest. More conservative traders may want to put their stop closer to $17.00 since broken resistance near $17.50 should now be support. Our target is the $25.00-27.00 zone. The P&F chart is bullish with a $28 target.

Picked on March 24 at $18.60 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.55
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 893 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Cognizant Tech - CTSH - cls: 30.17 chg: +1.34 stop: 31.01

CTSH rallied with the broader market today but remains under technical resistance at its 100-dma. The close over $30.00 is a danger sign for the bears but watch for another failed rally as a new entry point for shorts. We're suggesting a stop loss above the 100-dma. Our first target is the 26.25-26.00 zone. Our second, more aggressive target is the $24.25-24.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with an $18 target.

Picked on March 30 at $29.18
Change since picked: + 0.99
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.1 million

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Longs Drug Stores - LDG - cls: 43.20 chg: +0.74 stop: 43.55

The bounce in LDG continues. The stock is nearing resistance around the $43.50-44.00 zone. A breakout over $44.00 could send it back to $48.00. We have our stop at $43.55 and if the market sees any follow through tomorrow on Tuesday's gain then LDG will probably stop us out. Wait for a new drop under $42.00 before considering new shorts. Our first target is the $38.25-38.00 zone. Our second target is the $35.25-35.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $29.00 target.

Picked on March 30 at $41.30
Change since picked: + 1.90
Earnings Date 05/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 596 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Starbucks - SBUX - close: 18.50 chg: +1.00 stop: 18.11

Bulls were desperately hoping for a bottom in the market and bears were fearing a short squeeze and the combination helped fuel a 5.7% gain in shares of SBUX. The stock broke through resistance near $18.00 and through technical resistance at its 50-dma. SBUX hit our stop loss at $18.11 closing the play. The long-term trend is still bearish but short-term this might just be a tradable bottom although we wouldn't chase it here.

Picked on March 07 at $17.01 /stopped out 18.11
Change since picked: + 1.49
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16.5 million

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Safeway Inc. - SWY - close: 29.89 change: +0.54 stop: 30.05

The short covering in SWY continued for a second day in a row. The stock gapped open higher at $29.75 and rallied to $30.14 before settling with a 1.8% gain. Our stop loss was hit at $30.05 closing the play. The overall pattern continues to look bearish but bulls look like they are going to try and push SWY past resistance near $30 and its 50-dma soon.

Picked on February 29 at $28.74 /stopped 30.05
Change since picked: + 0.61
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million
 

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