Long Play Updates
DuPont - DD - close: 49.33 chg: -0.31 stop: 47.45
You could say DD displayed relative strength on Friday. The S&P 500 lost 2% while shares of DD only slipped 0.6%. Investors are still buying the dips and DD looks like it could breakout past the $50.00 mark if only the market would cooperate. Our target is the $52.50-54.00 zone. We are inching up our stop loss to $47.74. We don't want to hold over the late April earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart has a bullish triple-top breakout buy signal and a $63 target.
Picked on April 02 at $48.84
Energen - EGN - close: 66.50 chg: -0.77 stop: 63.45 *new*
After three weeks of gains EGN held up pretty well on Friday and only suffered a 1.1% decline. A dip near $65.00 and its 10-dma could be used as a new entry point for bullish positions. Broken resistance near $64.00 should be new support so we're raising our stop loss to $63.45. Our short-term target is the $69.50-70.00 zone. If we have time we'll consider a secondary, more aggressive target above $70. The P&F chart is bullish and the upside target just jumped from $77 to $80. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.
Picked on April 07 at $64.65 *triggered
Gerdau S.A. - GGB - close: 35.94 chg: -0.90 stop: 34.64
GGB is a new bullish candidate from our Thursday night newsletter. Iron and steel related stocks have been some of the market's best performers recently. We are still suggesting new positions at current levels or on a dip near $35.00 and its 10-dma. Our first target is the $39.75-40.00 range. We'll place a secondary, higher-risk target at $42.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $57 target. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report (unconfirmed).
Picked on April 10 at $36.84
Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 24.86 chg: -0.51 stop: 23.90 *new*
GLW paced the market's move lower and broke down under its rising 10-dma. This week's performance definitely looks bearish. At this point we would look for a convincing bounce in the $24.50-24.00 zone before considering new positions. We'll try and reduce our risk by raising the stop loss to $23.90. Shares of GLW should find support near $24.00, which should be bolstered by its 50-dma and 200-dma. Odds are still pretty good that GLW will benefit as consumers spend their tax rebates and stimulus checks on flat panel items but this boost could take months to play out. Our first target is the $27.00 level. Our second target is the $29.00 level. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. FYI: Last week's move over $26.00 has produced a brand new Point & Figure chart buy signal with a $39 target.
Picked on March 25 at $25.14
Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 40.97 change: -0.87 stop: 40.65
HRL doesn't move very fast so Friday's 2% loss looks a little overdone. Investors were trying to lock in gains during the market's sell-off. Volume spiked to above average levels but HRL managed to rebound off its 50-dma. This is probably a new bullish entry point to buy the dip but you'll want to use our stop loss at $40.65 or just under Friday's low at $40.73 (not much difference really). We did note that the MACD on the daily chart has now produced a new sell signal. Plus, we want to point out that this week's performance has painted a very clear bearish engulfing candlestick (reversal) pattern on the weekly chart. That's definitely a warning sign for the bulls! Readers may want to wait for a new rally past $41.50 again before considering long positions. Our target is the $45.75-46.00 range. We anticipate holding this stock on the newsletter for about six to eight weeks. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $64 target. FYI: HRL declared a quarterly cash dividend of 18.5 cents per share payable on May 15, 2008 to shareholders of record on April 19th. HRL has been paying quarterly dividends for almost 80 years.
Picked on March 31 at $41.83 *triggered/gap open
iShares Telecom - IYZ - close: 23.36 chg: -0.32 stop: 22.89
The close under $23.50 is bearish for IYZ. There is still potential support at $23.00 but we're definitely turning more defensive here. Wait for a clear bounce from the $23.00 level before considering new positions. More conservative traders might just want to abandon ship right here. We have two targets. Our 1st target is the $25.85-26.00 range. Our second target is the $27.85-28.00 zone.
Picked on March 25 at $23.50 *triggered
Coal ETF - KOL - close: 41.19 change: -0.81 stop: 38.69 *new*
The coal stocks ETF paced the market's move lower with a 1.9% decline. We're going to keep our suggested entry point in the $40.00-39.50 zone but more patient or more conservative traders might want to wait for a dip into the $39.50-39.00 zone instead. We're upping our stop loss to $38.85 to reduce our risk but it raises the chance that we'll be stopped out on an intraday spike. If triggered at $40.00 our target is the $44.75-45.00 range.
Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Agribusiness ETF - MOO - close: 58.90 chg: +0.03 stop: 54.75 *new*
The MOO continues to show relative strength but we don't want to chase it here. The $60.00 level looks like resistance. We are sticking with our plan and suggesting readers wait for a dip into the $56.00-55.00 zone. However, we are raising our stop loss to $54.75. If triggered our target is the $59.85-60.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $72 target.
Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Nintendo Co - NTDOY - close: 67.15 chg: -1.35 stop: 63.95
NTDOY might be in for a rough day on Monday. Asian markets are likely to trade lower in reaction to the U.S. decline on Friday. Shares of NTDOY will then gap open in reaction to how its stock traded in Japan. We would watch for a dip or bounce near $65.00 as a potential entry point, which should still be inline with the rising trend of higher lows. More conservative traders might want to consider upping their stop loss closer to the $65.00 level. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 zone. Keep in mind that NTDOY is traded as an ADR here in the United States and shares will gap open up or down every day as they adjust to trading overseas. FYI: Some quote services might ask you to use the symbol NTDOY.PK to pull up data on NTDOY.
Picked on April 07 at $68.50 *triggered/gap open
Teleflex Inc. - TFX - close: 50.00 chg: -0.54 stop: 49.49
TFX held up pretty well during the Friday weakness. Traders bought the dip near $50.00 and shares maintained their short-term trend of higher lows. Aggressive traders might be tempted to buy this dip and just use a tight stop (say 49.59) but we are sticking to our plan. We are suggesting a trigger to go long at $51.05. Our short-term target is the $54.75-55.00 range, which should intersect with the stock's longer-term trendline of lower highs. The long-term trend is still bearish. We're just trying to play the oversold bounce. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.
Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Short Play Updates
Cognizant Tech - CTSH - cls: 26.53 chg: -1.46 stop: 30.26
CTSH is still showing relative weakness. The stock lost 5.2% on Friday and closed at its low for the day. That is usually a bearish sign for the next session's open. CTSH is quickly approaching our first target in the $26.25-26.00 zone. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. We would expect some sort of oversold bounce near $26.00. Our second, more aggressive target is the $24.25-24.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with an $18 target. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $22.00-20.00 region.
Picked on March 30 at $29.18
Dell Inc. - DELL - close: 18.50 chg: -0.27 stop: 19.55
DELL dipped to a new multi-year low with the morning trade under $18.50. The trend is clearly bearish and this past week's breakdown from its trading range is forecasting a significant leg lower. We're suggesting a stop loss at $19.55 but you could try a stop closer to $19.25 or $19.05. The P&F chart already points to a $7.00 target and the move under $18.50 has produced a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal on the P&F chart. We're going to be aggressive and list two targets. Our first target is the $16.00 mark. Our second target is the $13.50 mark
Picked on April 10 at $18.77
Freddie Mac - FRE - close: 23.49 chg: -0.42 stop: 27.55 *new*
The sell-off in financials and FRE continues. Shares lost another 1.7% on Friday and closed near their lows. We are adjusting the stop to $27.55 but this is still a wide, aggressive stop loss. More conservative traders may want to tighten theirs. This week's earnings from the financial sector could have a big impact on shares of FRE. Our first target is the $20.50-20.00 zone.
Picked on April 09 at $24.90 *triggered
Longs Drug Stores - LDG - cls: 38.35 chg: +0.70 stop: 40.16 *new*
The news reports on Friday are suggesting that the Friday morning spike in LDG was fueled by the company's better than expected March sales figures (we mentioned them on Thursday). What we want to point out is that the rally ran out of steam under $40.00 and produced a very clear failed rally pattern. We're inching our stop loss down to $40.16. LDG has already hit our target at $38.25 and Friday's trading looks like a new entry point for shorts. Our second target is the $35.25-35.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $29.00 target.
Picked on March 30 at $41.30 /1st target hit 38.25
Closed Long Plays
Honeywell - HON - close: 56.99 chg: -1.81 stop: 55.95
We are hitting the eject button on this bullish play. Rival GE reported earnings on Friday and the results were worse than expected. Shares of HON plunged 3% in a guilty by association move. The stock could trend lower as investors bail ahead of HON's earnings on the 18th. We were aiming for the $59.90-60.00 level but shares only got to $59.31 on Thursday.
Picked on March 25 at $56.00
Closed Short Plays