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Long Play Updates

DuPont - DD - close: 48.80 chg: -0.53 stop: 47.45

Monday saw DD pull back toward the bottom of its recent trading range. At this time we would look for a dip or a bounce near $48.00 as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $52.50-54.00 zone. We don't want to hold over the late April earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart has a bullish triple-top breakout buy signal and a $63 target.

Picked on April 02 at $48.84
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 04/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.2 million

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Energen - EGN - close: 67.62 chg: +1.12 stop: 63.45

Oil and natural gas stocks continue to rally and EGN added 1.6%. Volume continues to be low but we're not going to complain. Our short-term target is the $69.50-70.00 zone. If we have time we'll consider a secondary, more aggressive target above $70. The P&F chart is bullish and the upside target just jumped from $77 to $80. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 07 at $64.65 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.97
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 657 thousand

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Gerdau S.A. - GGB - close: 35.01 chg: -0.93 stop: 34.64

Weakness across foreign exchanges might be responsible for GGB's decline today but the 2.5% drop seems a bit overdone and could be suggesting GGB is not as strong as it looks. If GGB does not bounce from here we fully expect to be stopped out tomorrow morning. Technically this dip looks like a new entry point for bullish positions but you may want to wait for signs of a bounce first. Our first target is the $39.75-40.00 range. We'll place a secondary, higher-risk target at $42.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $57 target. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report (unconfirmed).

Picked on April 10 at $36.84
Change since picked: - 1.83
Earnings Date 05/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 24.98 chg: +0.12 stop: 23.90

The relative strength in GLW today is encouraging but if we don't see the stock rally past today's high near $25.25 tomorrow we're going to consider an early exit. We can always exit and just hop back in if GLW starts to rally again. Our concern is the short-term sell signal and the new MACD sell signal formed today. Odds are still pretty good that GLW will benefit as consumers spend their tax rebates and stimulus checks on flat panel items but this boost could take months to play out. Our first target is the $27.00 level. Our second target is the $29.00 level. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. FYI: Last week's move over $26.00 has produced a brand new Point & Figure chart buy signal with a $39 target.

Picked on March 25 at $25.14
Change since picked: - 0.16
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14.7 million

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iShares Telecom - IYZ - close: 23.24 chg: -0.12 stop: 22.89

Another decline for the IYZ has us thinking it may be time to cut our losses and run. Shares should have support near $23.00 but we're not sure we want to stick around to find out. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We have two targets. Our 1st target is the $25.85-26.00 range. Our second target is the $27.85-28.00 zone.

Picked on March 25 at $23.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.26
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 429 thousand

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Coal ETF - KOL - close: 41.64 change: +0.45 stop: 38.69

Coal stocks continue to show relative strength. We're going to keep our suggested entry point in the $40.00-39.50 zone but more patient or more conservative traders might want to wait for a dip into the $39.50-39.00 zone instead. We're upping our stop loss to $38.85 to reduce our risk but it raises the chance that we'll be stopped out on an intraday spike. If triggered at $40.00 our target is the $44.75-45.00 range.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 240 thousand

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Agribusiness ETF - MOO - close: 59.23 chg: +0.33 stop: 54.75

Commodity-related stocks continued to rally and MOO is nearing resistance around $60.00. On a technical basis a breakout over $60.00 could be used as a new entry point. At this time we don't want to chase it. We are sticking with our plan and suggesting readers wait for a dip into the $56.00-55.00 zone. However, we are raising our stop loss to $54.75. If triggered our target is the $59.85-60.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $72 target.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Nintendo Co - NTDOY - close: 69.25 chg: +2.10 stop: 63.95

In spite of weakness in overseas markets Nintendo out performed with a 3.1% gain. The stock has rallied to a new ten-week high. More conservative traders might want to consider upping their stop loss closer to the $65.00 level. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 zone. Keep in mind that NTDOY is traded as an ADR here in the United States and shares will gap open up or down every day as they adjust to trading overseas. FYI: Some quote services might ask you to use the symbol NTDOY.PK to pull up data on NTDOY.

Picked on April 07 at $68.50 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: + 0.75
Earnings Date 00/00/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 312 thousand

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Teleflex Inc. - TFX - close: 49.30 chg: -0.70 stop: 49.49

It's not looking good for TFX. Shares lost 1.4% and have broken their two-week trend of higher lows. Volume was very light on today's move. If we don't see some sign of a bounce tomorrow we'll drop TFX as a bullish candidate. Right now We are suggesting a trigger to go long at $51.05. Our short-term target is the $54.75-55.00 range, which should intersect with the stock's longer-term trendline of lower highs. The long-term trend is still bearish. We're just trying to play the oversold bounce. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 319 thousand

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Terra Ind. - TRA - close: 46.28 chg: +1.48 stop: 39.74

TRA and the rest of the fertilizer-related stocks continue to rally. We don't want to chase it here. We are suggesting readers buy a dip in the $42.50-42.00 zone. If triggered our target is the $49.00-50.00 range. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at more than 20% of the 88.8 million-share float. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. This industry has seen a lot of volatility so watch your stops carefully!

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Cognizant Tech - CTSH - cls: 26.97 chg: +0.44 stop: 30.26

Almost! CTSH dipped to $26.32 this morning before bouncing back. Our first target is the $26.25-26.00 zone. The stock does look short-term oversold and due for a bounce. We're not suggesting new shorts at this time. Our second, more aggressive target is the $24.25-24.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish with an $18 target. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $22.00-20.00 region.

Picked on March 30 at $29.18
Change since picked: - 2.21
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.1 million

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Dell Inc. - DELL - close: 18.24 chg: -0.26 stop: 19.55

DELL continues to sink and shares hit new multi-year lows today. In the news today it was reported that DELL sold $1.5 billion in five-year, ten-year and 30-year notes. Meanwhile we're suggesting a stop loss at $19.55 but you could try a stop closer to $19.25 or $19.05. The P&F chart already points to a $7.00 target and the move under $18.50 has produced a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal on the P&F chart. We're going to be aggressive and list two targets. Our first target is the $16.00 mark. Our second target is the $13.50 mark

Picked on April 10 at $18.77
Change since picked: - 0.53
Earnings Date 05/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 29.3 million

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Freddie Mac - FRE - close: 23.10 chg: -0.39 stop: 27.55

The Wachovia (WB) earnings miss this morning pushed financials lower and FRE lost 1.6%. If the sector can produce a bounce FRE should find new resistance near $25.00. More conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop loss. Our first target is the $20.50-20.00 zone.

Picked on April 09 at $24.90 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.80
Earnings Date 06/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.8 million

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Longs Drug Stores - LDG - cls: 37.69 chg: -0.66 stop: 40.16

LDG dropped at the open and spent the remainder of the day oscillating sideways. LDG has already hit our target at $38.25 and Friday's trading looks like a new entry point for shorts. Our second target is the $35.25-35.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $29.00 target.

Picked on March 30 at $41.30 /1st target hit 38.25
Change since picked: - 3.61
Earnings Date 05/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 596 thousand

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Financial Sector SPDR - XLF - close: 24.54 chg: -0.59 stop: 26.51

Wachovia bank's earnings miss launched a sell-off in financials. The XLF closed with a 2.3% loss and the MACD's new sell signal is looking stronger. We're suggesting shorts now with the XLF under $26.00. We'll try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $26.51. Aggressive traders could put their stop above $27.00 and more conservative traders put their stop closer to $26.00. We're setting two targets. Our first target is the $22.50 mark. Our second target is the $21.00 mark.

Picked on April 13 at $25.13
Change since picked: - 0.59
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 139 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Hormel Foods - HRL - close: 40.20 change: -0.77 stop: 40.65

We've been stopped out of HRL. Worse than that the stock gapped open lower at $38.48 while our stop was at $40.65. The fuel behind today's move was an analyst downgrade. HRL recouped some of its losses but the play has been closed for us.

Picked on March 31 at $41.83 gap open / stopped/gap down
Change since picked: - 1.63
Earnings Date 05/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 513 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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