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Long Play Updates

DuPont - DD - close: 48.93 chg: +0.13 stop: 47.45

There is no change from our previous comments. DD continues to consolidate sideways. At this time we would look for a dip or a bounce near $48.00 as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $52.50-54.00 zone. We don't want to hold over the late April earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart has a bullish triple-top breakout buy signal and a $63 target.

Picked on April 02 at $48.84
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 04/22/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.2 million

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Energen - EGN - close: 67.85 chg: +0.23 stop: 63.45

Crude oil reached new highs today and the oil stocks continue to show relative strength. Our short-term target is the $69.50-70.00 zone. If we have time we'll consider a secondary, more aggressive target above $70. The P&F chart is bullish and the upside target just jumped from $77 to $80. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 07 at $64.65 *triggered
Change since picked: + 3.20
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 657 thousand

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Gerdau S.A. - GGB - close: 35.69 chg: +0.68 stop: 34.64

Good news! Traders did buy the dip in GGB and the stock actually gapped open higher at $35.57 this morning. This move looks like a new entry point to buy the stock. Our first target is the $39.75-40.00 range. We'll place a secondary, higher-risk target at $42.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $57 target. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report (unconfirmed).

Picked on April 10 at $36.84
Change since picked: - 1.15
Earnings Date 05/03/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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iShares Telecom - IYZ - close: 23.21 chg: -0.03 stop: 22.89

The IYZ is still trying to find a bottom near the $23.00 level. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We have two targets. Our 1st target is the $25.85-26.00 range. Our second target is the $27.85-28.00 zone.

Picked on March 25 at $23.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 429 thousand

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Coal ETF - KOL - close: 42.17 change: +0.53 stop: 38.69

Coal stocks are still showing strength. We've been waiting for a dip but we might want to change to a breakout entry point. Currently our suggested entry point to buy the KOL is the $40.00-39.50 zone. If triggered at $40.00 our target is the $44.75-45.00 range.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 240 thousand

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Agribusiness ETF - MOO - close: 60.18 chg: +0.95 stop: 54.75

Agriculture stocks and the MOO continue to rise. The MOO just broke through resistance at the $60.00 mark. Technically this is a bullish entry point but we don't want to chase it. We are sticking with our plan and suggesting readers wait for a dip into the $56.00-55.00 zone. However, we are raising our stop loss to $54.75. If triggered our target is the $59.85-60.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $72 target.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Nintendo Co - NTDOY - close: 66.05 chg: -3.20 stop: 64.90 *new*

Ouch! Lately it's been up one day and down the next for NTDOY but today saw shares give up more than 4.6%. We did not see any company-specific news to account for the sell-off. The Japanese market was actually up today so it couldn't be a market-fueled sell-off. Readers need to be defensive here. Today's decline looks like it might have broken the up trend of higher lows. We are raising our stop loss to $64.90. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 zone. Keep in mind that NTDOY is traded as an ADR here in the United States and shares will gap open up or down every day as they adjust to trading overseas. FYI: Some quote services might ask you to use the symbol NTDOY.PK to pull up data on NTDOY.

Picked on April 07 at $68.50 *triggered/gap open
Change since picked: - 2.45
Earnings Date 00/00/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 312 thousand

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Teleflex Inc. - TFX - close: 49.43 chg: +0.13 stop: 49.49

We are still in a wait-and-see mode with TFX. We're waiting to see if shares can breakout over resistance near $51.00. I know we were looking for a bounce today and TFX just barely squeaked by with a 0.2% gain. Right now we are suggesting a trigger to go long at $51.05. Our short-term target is the $54.75-55.00 range, which should intersect with the stock's longer-term trendline of lower highs. The long-term trend is still bearish. We're just trying to play the oversold bounce. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 319 thousand

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Terra Ind. - TRA - close: 45.74 chg: -0.54 stop: 39.74

It was a volatile day for TRA. The stock almost had a 10% swing on an intraday basis. We didn't see anything specific behind the volatility but traders definitely bought the dip near $44.00. We are suggesting readers buy a dip in the $42.50-42.00 zone. If triggered our target is the $49.00-50.00 range. FYI: The latest data puts short interest at more than 20% of the 88.8 million-share float. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. This industry has seen a lot of volatility so watch your stops carefully!

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Dell Inc. - DELL - close: 18.28 chg: +0.04 stop: 19.55

After several days of declines DELL eked out a minor gain. Today's trading was really pretty boring. After hours was when we started to see some movement. Intel's earnings report, at this time, is getting a positive spin and shares of DELL were trading higher, around $18.50ish on the Intel news. A failed rally near $19.00 would look like a good entry point for shorts. We're suggesting a stop loss at $19.55 but you could try a stop closer to $19.25 or $19.05. The P&F chart already points to a $7.00 target and the move under $18.50 has produced a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal on the P&F chart. We're going to be aggressive and list two targets. Our first target is the $16.00 mark. Our second target is the $13.50 mark

Picked on April 10 at $18.77
Change since picked: - 0.49
Earnings Date 05/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 29.3 million

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Freddie Mac - FRE - close: 23.95 chg: +0.85 stop: 27.55

Today's 3.6% bounce in FRE is just that - a bounce, inside its bearish trend. The stock was short-term oversold. A failed rally near $25.00 could be used as a new entry point for shorts. More conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop loss. Our first target is the $20.50-20.00 zone.

Picked on April 09 at $24.90 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.95
Earnings Date 06/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 20.8 million

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Longs Drug Stores - LDG - cls: 37.69 chg: -0.00 stop: 40.16

It was a quiet day for LDG. The stock traded sideways in a 70-cent range. LDG has already hit our target at $38.25. Our second target is the $35.25-35.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $29.00 target.

Picked on March 30 at $41.30 /1st target hit 38.25
Change since picked: - 3.61
Earnings Date 05/15/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 596 thousand

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Financial Sector SPDR - XLF - close: 24.79 chg: +0.25 stop: 26.51

The financial sector also produced an oversold bounce but we think it's temporary. Look for a failed rally in the $25.00-26.00 zone as a new entry point for shorts. We'll try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $26.51. Aggressive traders could put their stop above $27.00 and more conservative traders put their stop closer to $26.00. We're setting two targets. Our first target is the $22.50 mark. Our second target is the $21.00 mark.

Picked on April 13 at $25.13
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 139 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 24.60 chg: -0.38 stop: 23.90

We are giving up on GLW. The stock really under performed the market today with another failed rally and a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. While we are closing the play and cutting our losses we'd keep GLW on our watch list. The stock could rally again if GLW really does start to benefit from consumers spending their tax rebates on flat-panel items.

Picked on March 25 at $25.14 *early exit 24.60
Change since picked: - 0.54
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14.7 million
 

Closed Short Plays

Cognizant Tech - CTSH - cls: 29.32 chg: +2.35 stop: 30.26

Ouch! What happened here? CTSH gapped open higher at $27.75 and then rallied to an 8.7% gain on above average volume. There was no news specific to CTSH. The only thing that might account for today's short covering in CTSH was the earnings report from Infosys (INFY). Shares of CTSH still have overhead resistance at the trend of lower highs and its 100-dma. However, we do not want to wait around to find out of resistance holds. We're suggesting an early exit now.

Picked on March 30 at $29.18 /early exit 29.32
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.1 million
 

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