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Long Play Updates

Citi Trends - CTRN - close: 20.06 change: -0.30 stop: 18.99

Our play in CTRN has finally been opened. The stock dipped to $19.56 this morning before bouncing back and paring its losses. We had been suggesting readers buy the stock in the $20.05-19.50 range. Our stop loss is at $18.99 but more conservative traders might want to place their stop just under $19.50 or maybe under $19.40 to reduce their risk. An alternative entry point, if you prefer to buy on strength, would be to wait for a new rally past $20.35 again. We have two targets. Our first target is the $22.40-22.50 range. Our second target is the $24.00-25.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report. The P&F chart is bullish with a $29.00 target. F

Picked on May 08 at $20.05 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 05/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 327 thousand


Excel Maritime - EXM - cls: 45.24 chg: +2.27 stop: 41.95 *new*

Bulls can breathe a sigh of relief. Trading in EXM looked very bearish yesterday but there was no follow through lower. Investors bought the dip at its 200-dma and EXM added 5.2% by the closing bell. We are raising our stop loss to $41.95. Our target is the $49.00-50.00 range. We do not want to hold over the May earnings report. Our challenge is that the report date us unconfirmed. One source suggests that EXM might report as early as May 15th. This could be a very quick play since we will try to avoid holding over earnings.

Picked on May 04 at $43.12
Change since picked: + 2.12
Earnings Date 05/19/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million


Kohl's - KSS - close: 47.62 change: -1.10 stop: 48.49

We are a little surprised by KSS' relative weakness today. The company reported same-store sales growth of 3.5% versus analysts' estimates of 2.2%. The stock spiked briefly at the open and turned lower. Shares are still trading inside the flag part of its bull flag pattern. We continue to wait for a breakout. Right now our suggested entry point to buy KSS is at $51.05. This is going to be a short-term play as we don't want to hold over the May 15th earnings report. If triggered at $51.05 we have two targets. Our short-term target is the $54.90 mark. Our secondary target is the $58.00-60.00 zone. The P&F chart looks very bullish with a $67 target.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/15/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.8 million


Contango Oil - MCF - close: 80.11 change: -1.14 stop: 77.99 *new*

Shares of MCF drifted sideways on Thursday but traders jumped in late in the day to buy the dip and MCF pared its losses. The afternoon bounce looks like a new bullish entry point. However, we are no longer suggesting new positions! Why add MCF and suddenly stop suggesting positions? It is because of the earnings report. We know it's coming and after doing some additional research we think it could be coming soon. We believe that the risks out weigh the any advantages of holding over an earnings announcement so honestly readers may want to just exit MCF immediately. We searched high and low for some hint of when MCF will announce earnings. The best we could find was the company's SEC 10-Q filings. It appears that MCF tends to announce earnings in the May 9th-15th time frame. That means they could announce tomorrow. Because of this we are closing this play tomorrow at the closing bell. We're also raising our stop loss to $77.99. It's too bad the company doesn't pre-release its earnings schedule. The trend looks bullish and the P&F chart suggests a $127 bullish target. FYI: A readers asked how we would play this stock because the spreads were so wide. I am assuming that the reader is talking about the option spreads on MCF. This stock does have options available but they are not widely traded and the option spreads are horrendous! Seriously, the market makers should be ashamed. The spreads are so far apart on the bid/ask for call options that I would not play the options. You could try and enter a limit order and hope it gets filled. I've heard some traders have success when they place their order between the bid and ask just trying to get the market maker to fill you but then we could have a problem when it comes time to sell them. Another idea might be to turn this into a covered call play where you buy the stock and sell calls against your position. Yet you're still going to get a horribly low bid price instead of the ask. If I did do a covered call on MCF I would use a very tight stop and I wouldn't hold over earnings!

Picked on May 06 at $81.70
Change since picked: - 1.59
Earnings Date 02/08/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 107 thousand


Terra Ind. - TRA - close: 43.32 change: +2.54 stop: 39.45 *new*

Most of the fertilizer stocks out performed the markets today. TRA really led the group higher with a 6.2% gain. The company announced a quarterly dividend and a stock buy back program. TRA's Board of Directors approved a plan to extend and expand their current share repurchase program up to 10 percent or 9.5 million shares of the company's outstanding stock. The dividend has been set at 10 cents a share payable on June 13th to record holders as of May 28th.

NOTE: We are adding a target at $44.00. We think readers should take some money off the table at $44.00. We'll keep the $47.00-48.00 target as our more aggressive target. We are raising the stop loss to $39.45.

Picked on May 04 at $40.03
Change since picked: + 3.29
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.6 million

Short Play Updates


Closed Long Plays

Peabody Energy - BTU - close: 69.21 change: +3.90 stop: 61.49

We would like to say "target achieved". BTU did hit our target at $69.50 today. Unfortunately, we never got our entry point to jump into BTU. When the stock bounced and closed at $62.40 we added BTU to our play list with a plan to buy a dip near $60.00. That dip never appeared. We even adjusted our entry point to $63.50 but still no entry point. The stock has gone almost straight up in the last several days. There is nothing wrong with BTU but we're not chasing it here. We would keep an eye on it for a pull back near $65.00, which looks like it might be short-term support.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx *never opened
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/22/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.2 million


S&P SPDR Homebuilders - XHB - cls: 21.29 chg: -1.00 stop: 21.69

The homebuilders just collapsed today. The XHB fell through technical support at its 50-dma and its 200-dma closing on its lows. The group lost 4.4% and on heavy volume. Shares hit our stop loss at $21.69.

Picked on April 24 at $22.67 /stopped out 21.69
Change since picked: - 1.38
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 7.9 million

Closed Short Plays


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