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Long Play Updates

Avis Budget Group - CAR - close: 15.20 chg: +0.20 stop: 13.45

There is no change from our weekend comments on CAR. We are looking for a pull back. Our strategy is to buy a dip in the $13.85-13.75 zone. We'll use a stop at $13.45. If triggered our target is the $15.50-16.00 range or the 200-dma, which ever comes first. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $22 target.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Celanese Corp. - CE - close: 47.57 change: -0.83 stop: 45.49

The rally in CE peaked around 10:30 today and it was all downhill from there. We would expect a dip toward short-term support near $46.00. More conservative traders could probably use a tighter stop. Our target is the $49.90-50.00 zone.

Picked on May 11 at $46.35
Change since picked: + 1.22
Earnings Date 04/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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iShares DJ US Oil & Gas - IEO - cls: 83.50 chg: +0.66 stop: 77.99

The IEO continued to rally. We expected strength today. It's tomorrow and the rest of the week that concerns us. The stock hit $84.70 midday. Our short-term target was $85.00. More conservative traders may want to take the two points and go home or tighten your stops! We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our biggest concern is a possible sell-off in crude oil prices following tonight's expiration of futures. It would probably be a short-term pull back but equities always go down a lot faster than they go up. Our secondary, more aggressive target is $87.50. This should be considered a high-risk play.

Picked on May 13 at $81.06
Change since picked: + 2.44
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 125 thousand

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iShares DJ Oil Serv. - IEZ - cls: 76.38 chg: +0.47 stop: 71.90

It is the same story here. We expected the IEZ to trade higher today. This oil services ETF hit $77.34 intraday but not anywhere close to our target in the $79.50-80.00 range. Our concern is a possible sell-off in crude oil prices. We're not suggesting new positions in the IEZ at this time. This should be considered a high-risk play.

Picked on May 13 at $73.74
Change since picked: + 2.65
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 67.5 thousand

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Lululemon Athletica - LULU - cls: 35.60 chg: -0.95 stop: 33.49

So far so good. We are expecting a pull back in LULU. However, we are altering our entry point strategy. Over the weekend we suggested buying a dip in the $34.80-34.00 zone. We are changing that to 34.20-34.00. If triggered at $34.20 our target is the $39.00-40.00 zone. The P&F chart is very bullish with a major buy signal and a $50 target. FYI: Keep in mind that LULU doesn't have to pull back. The stock is heavily shorted and might continue to see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at more than 56% of the small 13 million-share float.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/02/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 951 thousand

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Agribusiness ETF - MOO - close: 62.50 chg: -0.92 stop: 60.45 *new*

We are changing our stop loss again. Our new stop is $60.45. The fertilizer stocks were under performing the market all day long so it's not a surprise to see MOO down 1.4%. On a positive note it did look like traders were buying the dip this afternoon. However, if the market is weak tomorrow I'd expect MOO to slip into the $61.50-61.00 zone. We have two targets. Our first target is the $65.50 level near its old highs. Our second target is the $68.00-70.00 range. Please note that we're inching up our stop loss to $59.90.

Picked on May 08 at $61.79
Change since picked: + 0.71
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Oshkosh Corp. - OSK - close: 39.50 change: -0.06 stop: 38.99 *new*

OSK continues to trade sideways. The stock's range is narrowing and we suspect that a breakout, one way or the other, is imminent. That's fine if you're trading a neutral options strategy but not so great if you're long the stock. We're raising our stop loss to $38.99. We would not consider new bullish positions until OSK traded above $40.25 again. More conservative traders may want to just cut their losses right now and step back and wait for a new entry point. Our eight-week target is the $44.50-45.00 range. We would expect some resistance near $42.00. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $57 target.

Picked on May 13 at $39.90
Change since picked: - 0.40
Earnings Date 05/01/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 975 thousand

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Perdigao - PDA - close: 59.94 change: -1.81 stop: 54.95

Warning! The action in PDA looks like a bearish failed rally pattern. The stock hit $63.80 this morning before reversing and closing down 2.9%. Actually, upon closer inspection, it looks like the early morning high was $62.43 and the trade at $63.80 was a bad tick. Either case the stock is reversing. We are not suggesting new positions and expect a pull back to $58.00 potentially lower. More conservative traders will want to strongly consider exiting early right here and waiting for a new entry point down the road. Our target is $64.00.

Picked on May 13 at $57.74
Change since picked: + 2.20
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 163 thousand

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Sterlite Ind. - SLT - close: 22.43 chg: +0.61 stop: 20.95

We did not have to wait very long for SLT to hit one of our triggers. The stock continued to rally and broke through resistance near $22.00. We had a trigger to buy the stock at $22.25. Volume on the move today was very strong, which is bullish. However, if you missed the entry point this morning you may want to wait and watch. The stock looks poised to pull back toward $22.00 and honestly it wouldn't surprise me to see it dip into the 21.50-21.00 zone even through broken resistance near $22.00 should be support. We would buy the dip (or bounce). Our target is the $25.75-26.00 zone. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $31 target.

Picked on May 19 at $22.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.18
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 813 thousand
 

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