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Long Play Updates

Avis Budget Group - CAR - close: 13.63 chg: -0.11 stop: 12.99

Our bullish play on CAR is now open. The stock dipped to $13.38 before bouncing. Our suggested trigger to buy CAR was in the $13.55-13.25 zone. Our target is the $15.50-16.00 range or the 200-dma, whichever comes first. Since the short-term trend is still down more conservative traders might want to wait for a bounce over $14.00 before initiating positions but if you do then raise your stop loss to today's low.

Picked on May 27 at $13.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.08
Earnings Date 08/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Celanese Corp. - CE - close: 47.96 change: +0.48 stop: 46.35

Thankfully there was no follow through on CE's bearish engulfing candlestick from Friday. The three-month trend remains bullish but we're still short-term cautious. Many of the momentum indicators are rolling over into bearish signals. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $49.90-50.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart is forecasting a long-term target of $74.

Picked on May 11 at $46.35
Change since picked: + 1.61
Earnings Date 04/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Perdigao - PDA - close: 60.95 change: +2.49 stop: 56.24 *new*

The last couple of weeks have been kind of rocky for PDA but the stock started to really take off this afternoon. Shares broke through the $60.00 level and ended Tuesday up 4.2%. We are raising our stop loss to 56.24. Our target is $64.00. The P&F chart suggests a $69 target.

Picked on May 13 at $57.74
Change since picked: + 3.21
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 163 thousand

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Williams Cos. - WMB - close: 37.43 change: -0.41 stop: 36.99

It's not looking good for WMB bulls. The stock is inching closer to its trendline of higher lows. Given our stop loss at $36.99 we would still be tempted to buy a bounce near $37.00 but readers may want to wait for a new rise over $38.00 again. Over the weekend we were suggesting a dip into the $37.30-37.00 zone as an entry point and we almost got it today. The low was $37.33. Our target is the $42.00-42.50 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart points to $56.

Picked on May 22 at $38.40
Change since picked: - 0.97
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.7 million

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Wal-Mart - WMT - close: 56.40 change: +0.65 stop: 54.95

Tuesday's rebound back above the $56.00 level has restored our confidence in WMT. We would buy this bounce if you haven't already opened positions. Our short-term target is the $59.00 level near its recent highs. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart points to a $68 target. We are going to tentatively set a secondary, aggressive target at $62.50 but we suggest readers take some money off the table at $59.00.

Picked on May 22 at $56.05
Change since picked: + 0.35
Earnings Date 08/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Expeditor's Intl. - EXPD - close: 45.49 chg: +1.22 stop: 47.51

So far so good. We were expecting an oversold bounce in EXPD and the stock delivered one today. Right now our plan is to short EXPD on a bounce into the $45.65-46.00 zone. That should happen tomorrow. More conservative traders may want to wait for a bounce into the $46.25-46.50 zone near its 10-dma as their entry point for shorts. We definitely think EXPD has another day or two of bouncing left after Tuesday's bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. If we are triggered at $45.65 we have two targets. Our first, short-term target is $42.50. Our secondary target is the $40.25 mark. The P&F chart is bearish with a $38 target. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 6% of the 209 million-share float.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

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General Motors - GM - close: 17.42 chg: -0.18 stop: 20.26

The expected bounce in GM was retarded today thanks to an analyst downgrade this morning. Volume was pretty strong at close to double the daily average. This could be a short-term bottom. We going to go out on a limb here and suggest a very short-term bullish position (see new plays tonight). Our primary bias remains bearish but the suggested entry point for shorts is a bounce into the $19.70-20.00 zone. If triggered we're setting two targets. Our first target is the $17.50 mark. Our secondary target is the $15.50 level. The P&F chart is bearish and currently forecasts an $11 target. Nimble traders could try and capture the bounce back toward $19.50 if you're quick enough. FYI: GM has a high amount of short interest and that raises the risk of a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at more than 17% of the 530 million-share float.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18.7 million

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Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 34.61 change: +0.50 stop: 36.16

We're starting to see an oversold bounce in PAYX. At this point we don't think the rebound is over yet. Look for a failed rally near $35.00 or $36.00 as a potential entry point for new shorts since either level could act as overhead resistance. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. The P&F chart is actually still bullish at least for now. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 5% of the 320 million-share float. That's several days worth of short interest.

Picked on May 22 at $34.87
Change since picked: - 0.26
Earnings Date 06/25/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million
 

Closed Long Plays

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Closed Short Plays

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