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Long Play Updates

Avis Budget Group - CAR - close: 13.98 chg: +0.35 stop: 12.99

Right on cue shares of CAR continue to bounce. The stock added 2.5% today albeit on relatively light volume. Shares flirted with a breakout over the $14.00 level. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop toward yesterday's low at $13.38. Our target is the $15.50-16.00 range or the 200-dma, whichever comes first.

Picked on May 27 at $13.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.43
Earnings Date 08/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Celanese Corp. - CE - close: 48.34 change: +0.38 stop: 46.35

CE bounces again but remains in the $47-49 zone. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $49.90-50.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart is forecasting a long-term target of $74.

Picked on May 11 at $46.35
Change since picked: + 1.99
Earnings Date 04/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Copa Holdings - CPA - close: 31.65 change: +0.62 stop: 29.65

CPA gapped higher this morning and then pulled back as crude oil reversed higher. Shares of CPA tagged their 10-dma, which looks like short-term technical resistance. We would still consider bullish positions here but keep a wary eye on the price of crude oil. Higher oil will push down on the airline stocks. More patient investors might want to look for another dip into the $30.50-30.00 zone as their entry point to buy CPA. The relationship between oil and the airlines can be volatile we would consider this a more aggressive play. We're suggesting a stop loss under the recent low. Our target is the $34.50-35.00 zone - although there might be some resistance at the $34.00 mark.

Picked on May 27 at $31.40
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 589 thousand

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Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 27.53 chg: +0.26 stop: 26.45

GLW continues to march higher. Shares added 0.9% by the closing bell. The intraday low of $26.66 looks like a bad tick. If you check an intraday chart the low was $27.27. We would still consider new positions here. Our target is the 2006 high at $29.60.

Picked on May 27 at $27.27
Change since picked: + 0.26
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.3 million

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General Motors - GM - close: 17.15 chg: -0.27 stop: 16.84

Our speculative play on a bounce in GM could be in trouble. The stock spiked to $18.00 this morning and then quickly reversed lower. Shares were testing the $17.00 level by late afternoon. At this point we'd wait for a new move over $17.50 before considering bullish positions in this high-risk play. Our target is the $19.50 mark. We are essentially trying to catch the bounce before we open shorts on a failed rally below $20.00. The most recent data listed short interest at more than 17% of the 530 million-share float.

Picked on May 27 at $17.42
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18.7 million

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Mercury General - MCY - close: 50.42 change: -0.12 stop: 49.65

MCY may have closed in the red but the stock continues to look like it's poised for a breakout. We were suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $50.75 but MCY gapped open higher at $50.92 so the play is now open. Our short-term target is the $54.00-55.00 zone. The P&F chart is a lot more bullish with a $68 target.

Picked on May 28 at $50.92 *triggered/gap higher entry
Change since picked: - 0.50
Earnings Date 05/05/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 264 thousand

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Williams Cos. - WMB - close: 38.41 change: +0.98 stop: 36.99

WMB finally bounced. Shares rallied 2.6% and closed back above the $38.00 level. We see this as a new entry point to buy the stock. More conservative traders could tighten their stops toward today's low near $37.33. Our target is the $42.00-42.50 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart points to $56.

Picked on May 22 at $38.40
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.7 million

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Wal-Mart - WMT - close: 57.09 change: +0.69 stop: 54.95

WMT rebounded to a 1.2% gain and on decent volume. Short-term technicals are turning positive again. Our short-term target is the $59.00 level near its recent highs. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart points to a $68 target. We are going to tentatively set a secondary, aggressive target at $62.50 but we suggest readers take some money off the table at $59.00.

Picked on May 22 at $56.05
Change since picked: + 1.04
Earnings Date 08/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Expeditor's Intl. - EXPD - close: 45.81 chg: +0.32 stop: 47.51

Our bearish play in EXPD is now open. The stock rallied toward the $46.00 level and hit our suggested entry point in the $45.65-46.00 zone. More conservative traders may want to wait and see if EXPD can rise to its 10-dma near $46.35 before initiating positions. Now that the play is open we have two targets. Our first, short-term target is $42.50. Our secondary target is the $40.25 mark. The P&F chart is bearish with a $38 target. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 6% of the 209 million-share float.

Picked on May 28 at $45.65 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.16
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million

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General Motors - GM - close: 17.15 chg: -0.27 stop: 20.26

There is no change from our previous comments on this GM short. We are still waiting for a failed rally under $20.00. The suggested entry point for shorts is a bounce into the $19.70-20.00 zone. If triggered we're setting two targets. Our first target is the $17.50 mark. Our secondary target is the $15.50 level. The P&F chart is bearish and currently forecasts an $11 target. Nimble traders could try and capture the bounce back toward $19.50 if you're quick enough. FYI: GM has a high amount of short interest and that raises the risk of a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at more than 17% of the 530 million-share float.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18.7 million

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Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 34.45 change: -0.16 stop: 36.16

PAYX tried to rebound but failed under the $35.00 level. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Look for a failed rally near $35.00 or $36.00 as a potential entry point for new shorts since either level could act as overhead resistance. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. The P&F chart is actually still bullish at least for now. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 5% of the 320 million-share float. That's several days worth of short interest.

Picked on May 22 at $34.87
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 06/25/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Perdigao - PDA - close: 64.18 change: +3.23 stop: 56.24

Target achieved! Brazilian stocks related to meat were hot commodities today. Shares of Sadia (SDA) rallied 6.7%. Meanwhile PDA rallied 5.3%. The stock hit an intraday high of $64.24. Our target was the $64.00-65.00 range. We would keep PDA on your watch list for a potential entry point down the road.

Picked on May 13 at $57.74 *target achieved (64.00)
Change since picked: + 6.44
Earnings Date 04/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 163 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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