Long Play Updates
Adaptec - ADPT - close: 3.21 change: -0.04 stop: 2.99
ADPT rallied to $3.28 before reversing and pulling back toward technical support/resistance at its simple and exponential 200-dma(s). If we get the chance a pull back near $3.15 can be used as a new bullish entry point. More conservative traders might want to wait for a rally over $3.30 as an entry point. Our target is the December 2007 highs. We'll try to exit in the $3.65-3.70 zone. The stock can be somewhat volatile so we do consider this a higher-risk play. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at more than 7% of the 118 million-share float. Based on ADPT's average daily volume that is a lot of short interest and the stock could see a short squeeze.
Picked on May 28 at $ 3.25
BJ Services - BJS - close: 29.64 change: -0.81 stop: 28.95
BJS was not immune to the sell-off in oil stocks, thanks to weakness in crude today. BJS erased yesterday's gains and threw a wet blanket on yesterday's bullish reversal from support. The trendline of support is still there but if oil stocks continue lower tomorrow then BJS could hit our stop loss. Watch for a new move over $30.50 or a bounce above $29.00 as potential entry point to buy BJS. Our initial target is the $33.00-34.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $52 target.
Picked on May 28 at $30.45
Avis Budget Group - CAR - close: 14.04 chg: +0.06 stop: 13.35 *new*
CAR is still inching higher. We are going to adjust our stop loss to $13.35, which is a few cents under Tuesday's low. Our target is the $15.50-16.00 range or the 200-dma, whichever comes first.
Picked on May 27 at $13.55 *triggered
Celanese Corp. - CE - close: 47.77 change: -0.57 stop: 46.35
CE traded sideways on Thursday. Unfortunately, we're still seeing the momentum indicators grow more and more ominous. More conservative traders may want to exit early. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $49.90-50.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart is forecasting a long-term target of $74.
Picked on May 11 at $46.35
Copa Holdings - CPA - close: 34.03 change: +2.38 stop: 31.40*new*
CPA almost hit our target today. Shares traded to an intraday high of $34.35 before settling with a 7.5% gain. The airline stocks just took off as crude oil sank. There is a good chance that CPA will hit our target in the $34.50-35.00 range tomorrow. We are raising our stop loss to $31.40. FYI: More aggressive traders may want to aim for $36.00 or its 200-dma near 38.45.
Picked on May 27 at $31.40
Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 27.44 chg: -0.04 stop: 26.45
GLW did not make much progress. The company reaffirmed its revenue and earnings guidance today but the market yawned at the "news". We remain positive on the stock and would still buy it here or on dips above $26.50. Our target is the 2006 high at $29.60.
Picked on May 27 at $27.27
General Motors - GM - close: 17.38 chg: +0.23 stop: 16.84
First things first. Most of your quote services are going to say that the intraday low in GM was $16.73. It's not true. That was a bad tick this afternoon. The stock never traded under $17.03 and there was strong support at $17.05 all day. If you did get stopped out then we would buy GM again right here. Shares look like they have put in a short-term bottom and look poised to rebound. If you're feeling conservative then raise your stop loss closer to $17.00. Remember, this is a high-risk speculative play. We are essentially trying to catch the bounce before we open shorts on a failed rally below $20.00. Our target is the $19.50 mark. The most recent data listed short interest at more than 17% of the 530 million-share float.
Picked on May 27 at $17.42
Mercury General - MCY - close: 51.05 change: +0.63 stop: 49.65
MCY displayed some relative strength with a 1.2% gain and a new three-week high. We would still consider new positions at current levels. Our short-term target is the $54.00-55.00 zone. The P&F chart is a lot more bullish with a $68 target.
Picked on May 28 at $50.92 *triggered/gap higher entry
Williams Cos. - WMB - close: 37.75 change: -0.66 stop: 36.99
WMB reversed and gave back 1.7% as crude oil and natural gas suffered a painful one-day loss. Both crude and natural gas lost more than 4%. The trend in both commodities is still positive although there are many making the argument that oil has topped and is reversing. We remain bullish on WMB but would hesitate to open new positions. More conservative traders could tighten their stops toward Wednesday's low near $37.33. Our target is the $42.00-42.50 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart points to $56.
Picked on May 22 at $38.40
WMS Industries - WMS - close: 36.70 change: +0.65 stop: 33.99
WMS continues to rally. The stock added 1.8% and closed above technical resistance at its 50-dma. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Our target is the $39.50-40.00 zone. We're suggesting long positions now but if you're patient WMS might fill the gap from this morning so you could look for a dip near $35.00 as an alternative entry point.
Picked on May 28 at $36.05
Wal-Mart - WMT - close: 57.94 change: +0.85 stop: 54.95
WMT is still flexing its muscles. The stock rallied to $58.15 intraday. We don't see any changes. If we get a dip then traders could buy it around $57.00-56.75. Our short-term target is the $59.00 level near its recent highs. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart points to a $68 target. We are going to tentatively set a secondary, aggressive target at $62.50 but we suggest readers take some money off the table at $59.00.
Picked on May 22 at $56.05
Short Play Updates
Expeditor's Intl. - EXPD - close: 45.81 chg: +0.32 stop: 47.51
The sell-off in oil fueled a rally in the transports and many of the shippers. EXPD soared 3% and broke through its 50-dma. This is dangerous territory for us. If there is any follow through in the transports tomorrow then EXPD could hit our stop loss. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We have two targets. Our first, short-term target is $42.50. Our secondary target is the $40.25 mark. The P&F chart is bearish with a $38 target. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 6% of the 209 million-share float.
Picked on May 28 at $45.65 *triggered
General Motors - GM - close: 17.38 chg: +0.23 stop: 20.26
There is no change from our previous comments on this GM short. We are still waiting for a failed rally under $20.00. The suggested entry point for shorts is a bounce into the $19.70-20.00 zone. If triggered we're setting two targets. Our first target is the $17.50 mark. Our secondary target is the $15.50 level. The P&F chart is bearish and currently forecasts an $11 target. Nimble traders could try and capture the bounce back toward $19.50 if you're quick enough. FYI: GM has a high amount of short interest and that raises the risk of a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at more than 17% of the 530 million-share float.
Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 35.01 change: +0.56 stop: 36.16
The early morning rally PAYX did roll over but we're not sure the bounce is over yet. Readers may want to wait for a failed rally closer to $36.00 or its 10 and 50-dma around $35.50 before initiating new shorts. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. The P&F chart is actually still bullish at least for now. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 5% of the 320 million-share float. That's several days worth of short interest.
Picked on May 22 at $34.87
Closed Long Plays
Bill Barrett Corp. - BBG - cls: 52.91 change: -2.15 stop: 52.95
BBG garnered some positive analyst comments today. The stock was started with a "buy" rating and a $69 price target. Unfortunately, this news has no affect what so ever on BBG's stock. Shares spiked down at the open and continued to drop. BBG hit our stop loss at $52.95 closing the play. We'd like to blame the sell-off in crude oil but crude actually spiked higher this morning before reversing. BBG saw no such rally.
Picked on May 28 at $55.06
Closed Short Plays