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Long Play Updates

Adaptec - ADPT - close: 3.21 change: +0.01 stop: 3.09

The upward trend in ADPT is holding up. Shares rebounded from the $3.15 level today. We are not suggesting new positions and more conservative traders might want to consider a stop loss around $3.13-3.14 instead of ours at $3.09. Our target is the $3.65-3.70 zone. The stock can be somewhat volatile so we do consider this a higher-risk play. Our time frame is several weeks. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at more than 7% of the 118 million-share float. Based on ADPT's average daily volume that is a lot of short interest and the stock could see a short squeeze.

Picked on May 28 at $ 3.25
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 559 thousand

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Axsys Tech. - AXYS - close: 62.98 change: +0.97 stop: 57.95*new*

AXYS almost made it! The stock hit $63.88 at its best levels on Monday. Our target is the $64.00-65.00 zone. We're raising our stop loss to $57.95. We're not suggesting new bullish positions.

Picked on June 01 at $59.16
Change since picked: + 3.82
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 124 thousand

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BJ Services - BJS - close: 31.97 change: +0.34 stop: 29.89

Crude oil posted a $4 drop but the energy stocks managed a rally. BJS added 1% after bouncing from its intraday lows near $31.50. We were actually expecting a dip closer to $31.00. Our initial target is the $33.00-34.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $52 target.

Picked on May 28 at $30.45
Change since picked: + 1.52
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million

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AM Castle & Co - CAS - close: 32.23 change: +0.59 stop: 30.95

There is no change from our weekend comments for CAS. The stock is still bouncing around its trading range. At this point we are suggesting that readers wait for a breakout over resistance near $33.00. Our target is the $36.50-37.00 zone, which is just under its all-time highs.

Picked on June 01 at $32.83
Change since picked: - 0.60
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 138 thousand

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Mercury General - MCY - close: 51.19 change: -0.11 stop: 49.99

Today's dip in MCY looks like another bullish entry point. However, I am wary of the broader market and would hesitate to open new bullish positions. Our short-term target is the $54.00-55.00 zone. The P&F chart is a lot more bullish with a $68 target.

Picked on May 28 at $50.92 *triggered/gap higher entry
Change since picked: + 0.27
Earnings Date 05/05/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 264 thousand

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United States Cellular - USM - cls: 61.50 chg: -1.37 stop: 59.95

Today's pull back in USM looks like a new bullish entry point to buy the stock. Our target is the recent highs in the $67.00-67.50 zone. More aggressive traders could aim for $70 or its 200-ema. The P&F chart is bullish with an $85 target.

Picked on June 01 at $62.63
Change since picked: - 1.13
Earnings Date 08/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 129 thousand

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Williams Cos. - WMB - close: 39.71 change: +0.53 stop: 37.75

WMB's strength from its intraday low today could be used as a new entry point to buy the stock. More conservative traders may want to use a slightly tighter stop loss. Our target is the $42.00-42.50 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart points to $56.

Picked on May 22 at $38.40
Change since picked: + 1.31
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.7 million

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Wal-Mart - WMT - close: 59.57 change: +1.20 stop: 56.49

Blue chip and retail titan, Wal-Mart (WMT), is another reason the DJIA was able to post a gain today. The stock out performed the market with a 2% gain. WMT has already surpassed our early target at $59.00. The Point & Figure chart points to a $68 target. We have a second, more aggressive target at $62.00.

Picked on May 22 at $56.05 /1st target exceeded
Change since picked: + 3.52
Earnings Date 08/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Amer.Capital Strat. - ACAS - close: 30.77 change: -0.18 stop: 32.51

ACAS continues to sink. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. Here is a repost of Sunday:

This is a stock that readers could short right away. Or if you prefer wait for another failed rally under $32.00 since the financial sectors are so oversold and due for a bounce! We want to aim for the January 2008 lows so our target is the $26.50-26.00 zone. We're suggesting a stop loss at $32.51 but you might be able to get away with a tighter stop closer to $32.00. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22 target. FYI: It is important for readers to note that ACAS has above average short interest. A lot of investors have seen the trend and they're piling on. The most recent data listed short interest at 15.5% of the 199-million share float. That is more than a week's worth of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on June 08 at $30.95
Change since picked: - 0.18
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Dover Corp. - DOV - close: 52.12 change: +0.19 stop: 54.51

We are still waiting for a little bit more of a bounce in DOV. Our suggested entry point for shorts on DOV is the $52.75-53.00 zone. If triggered our target is the $48.00-47.50 range. The stock does not have a lot of short interest that we know of.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million

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Darden Rest. - DRI - close: 32.01 change: -0.15 stop: 34.81

There is no change from our weekend comments on DRI. Here is a summary:

Technically things look very bearish. We're tempted to just short it right here. However, we think DRI will bounce from its 100-dma. We're suggesting readers short DRI on a bounce back into the $32.90-33.50 zone. We're setting the stop loss at $34.81 but you might be able to get away with a stop closer to Thursday's high near $34.50. We have two targets. Our first target is $30.10. Our second target is $27.75.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 06/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 33.34 change: +0.17 stop: 35.25

PAYX tagged another new relative low at $32.65 but bounced back into the green. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We're not suggesting new positions in PAYX at this time. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 5% of the 320 million-share float. That's several days worth of short interest.

Picked on May 22 at $34.87
Change since picked: - 1.53
Earnings Date 06/25/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Patterson Cos. - PDCO - close: 33.22 change: -0.05 stop: 34.21

Today's action in PDCO has formed a Japanese candlestick called a "doji". This represents indecision. If PDCO bounces from here look for a failed rally in the $33.50-34.00 zone. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $28 target. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at about 11% of the 98 million-share float. That is a relatively high degree of short interest for this stock.

Picked on June 03 at $33.42
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 08/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

McDonald's - MCD - close: 59.31 change: +2.36 stop: 59.32 *new*

MCD was getting pretty close to our target but the company surprised to the upside with its May same-store sales data. MCD said global same-store sales jumped more than 7%, which was a lot higher than expected. Shares reacted by gapping open at $58.37 and soaring to $59.56 intraday. Our stop loss was $59.32 (breakeven).

Picked on June 01 at $59.32 /stopped out $59.32
Change since picked: - 2.37
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.6 million
 

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