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Long Play Updates

Adaptec - ADPT - close: 3.19 change: -0.02 stop: 3.13 *new*

Technicals are beginning to take a turn for the worse in ADPT. The short-term trend is still up but momentum has definitely slowed over the past three days. Short-term technicals are starting to suggest ADPT's next move will be lower. Considering this market environment more conservative traders may want to exit early. The MACD on the daily chart has produced a new sell signal. We're upping our stop loss to $3.13. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $3.65-3.70 zone. The stock can be somewhat volatile so we do consider this a higher-risk play. Our time frame is several weeks. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at more than 7% of the 118 million-share float. Based on ADPT's average daily volume that is a lot of short interest and the stock could see a short squeeze.

Picked on May 28 at $ 3.25
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 559 thousand

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Axsys Tech. - AXYS - close: 61.46 change: -1.52 stop: 57.95

AXYS suffered some profit taking today but traders bought the dip at the stock's rising 10-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $64.00-65.00 zone.

Picked on June 01 at $59.16
Change since picked: + 2.30
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 124 thousand

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BJ Services - BJS - close: 31.20 change: -0.77 stop: 29.89

Crude oil suffered another loss and this time the oil stocks followed it lower. BJS lost 2.4% and still looks poised for more weakness tomorrow. I would expect a dip toward the $30.00 region. Our initial target is the $33.00-34.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $52 target.

Picked on May 28 at $30.45
Change since picked: + 0.75
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million

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Mercury General - MCY - close: 52.20 change: +1.01 stop: 49.99

MCY out performed the markets today with a 1.9% gain. Today's move certainly reinforces the bullish trend in MCY. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our short-term target is the $54.00-55.00 zone. The P&F chart is a lot more bullish with a $68 target.

Picked on May 28 at $50.92 *triggered/gap higher entry
Change since picked: + 1.28
Earnings Date 05/05/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 264 thousand

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Williams Cos. - WMB - close: 38.87 change: -0.84 stop: 37.75

Weakness in crude oil and natural gas today pushed WMB lower. The stock lost 2.1% and looks poised to retest the $38.00 region soon. Wait for a bounce before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $42.00-42.50 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart points to $56.

Picked on May 22 at $38.40
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.7 million

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Wal-Mart - WMT - close: 59.78 change: +0.21 stop: 56.49

WMT is still flexing its relative strength muscle. The stock posted another gain but is struggling with round-number resistance at $60.00. We reiterate our prior suggestion that readers take some profits here. WMT has exceeded our first target at $59.00. We're not suggesting new positions. The Point & Figure chart points to a $68 target. We have a second, more aggressive target at $62.00.

Picked on May 22 at $56.05 /1st target exceeded
Change since picked: + 3.73
Earnings Date 08/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Amer.Capital Strat. - ACAS - close: 31.08 change: +0.31 stop: 32.51

An oversold bounce in the financial sector inspired ACAS to a 0.9% gain. We remain bearish and would still consider new shorts here. We are aiming for the January 2008 lows so our target is the $26.50-26.00 zone. We're suggesting a stop loss at $32.51 but you might be able to get away with a tighter stop closer to $32.00. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22 target. FYI: It is important for readers to note that ACAS has above average short interest. A lot of investors have seen the trend and they're piling on. The most recent data listed short interest at 15.5% of the 199-million share float. That is more than a week's worth of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on June 08 at $30.95
Change since picked: + 0.13
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Dover Corp. - DOV - close: 52.03 change: -0.09 stop: 54.51

DOV almost hit our entry point today. The stock bounced to $52.60 before rolling over again. More aggressive traders may want to consider new short positions now. We're going to stick to our plan. Our suggested entry point for shorts on DOV is the $52.75-53.00 zone. If triggered our target is the $48.00-47.50 range. The stock does not have a lot of short interest that we know of.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million

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Darden Rest. - DRI - close: 32.09 change: +0.08 stop: 34.81

Sometimes the toughest part of trading is waiting for the right entry point. DRI may have bounced today but the bounce was fading this afternoon. This looks like a bearish entry point right here. More aggressive traders might want to jump in early. We are going to wait and stick to our plan. We're suggesting readers short DRI on a bounce back into the $32.90-33.50 zone. We're setting the stop loss at $34.81 but you might be able to get away with a stop closer to Thursday's high near $34.50. We have two targets. Our first target is $30.10. Our second target is $27.75.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 06/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 33.28 change: -0.06 stop: 35.01*new*

PAYX has produced another lower high today. Shares reversed at their descending 10-dma, which is bearish. We are adjusting our stop loss to $35.01. We're not suggesting new positions in PAYX at this time. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 5% of the 320 million-share float. That's several days worth of short interest.

Picked on May 22 at $34.87
Change since picked: - 1.59
Earnings Date 06/25/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Patterson Cos. - PDCO - close: 32.90 change: -0.32 stop: 34.21

We are still not seeing any "decision" in PDCO. The stock bounced sideways and we suspect shares could rebound back to the $33.50 area. Wait for a failed rally at the top of its trading range of a new relative low before considering new positions. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $28 target. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at about 11% of the 98 million-share float. That is a relatively high degree of short interest for this stock.

Picked on June 03 at $33.42
Change since picked: - 0.52
Earnings Date 08/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Closed Long Plays

AM Castle & Co - CAS - close: 31.81 change: -0.42 stop: 30.95

We are giving up on CAS and suggesting an early exit. The three-month trend is still bullish but momentum inside its three-week trading range suggests the next move will be lower. That's not a guarantee it will breakdown but we'd rather not risk it in this environment. We can always keep CAS on our watch list and wait for a breakout over $33.00 as a potential entry point.

Picked on June 01 at $32.83
Change since picked: - 1.02
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 138 thousand

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S&P GSSI iShares - IGE - close: 150.36 chg: -4.06 stop: 149.99

Yesterday's bounce in the IGE quickly reversed today. This natural resources ETF sank to $148.58 hitting our stop loss at $149.99 before eventually closing with a 2.6% loss. The two-month trend is still up but there is definitely a tug-of-war going on right now. IGE has not yet broken its bullish trendline of support so we would keep an eye on it.

Picked on June 09 at $154.43 /stopped out 149.99
Change since picked: - 4.06
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 145 thousand

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United States Cellular - USM - cls: 60.40 chg: -1.10 stop: 59.95

Two days can make a big difference. Last week USM was looking strong with a rally from support near $60.00. Now shares have reversed and look poised to breakdown under $60.00. The stock actually hit $59.90 this morning, which was enough to stop us out at $59.95. We would keep an eye on USM. There may be another opportunity here down the road. FYI: The 59.64 "low" today was a bad tick.

Picked on June 01 at $62.63 /stopped out 59.95
Change since picked: - 2.23
Earnings Date 08/07/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 129 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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