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Long Play Updates

Adaptec - ADPT - close: 3.21 change: +0.04 stop: 3.15 *new*

ADPT was doing well this morning with a rally to $3.30 but it eventually failed. The trend is still up but signs that the momentum is fading show up almost daily. We're upping our stop loss to $3.15. If ADPT does not show signs of strength tomorrow we're going to close the play early and just cut our losses. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $3.65-3.70 zone. The stock can be somewhat volatile so we do consider this a higher-risk play. Our time frame is several weeks. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at more than 7% of the 118 million-share float. Based on ADPT's average daily volume that is a lot of short interest and the stock could see a short squeeze.

Picked on May 28 at $ 3.25
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 559 thousand

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BJ Services - BJS - close: 31.35 change: +0.19 stop: 29.89

The OIX and OSX oil indices actually turned lower today in spite of an intraday rebound in crude oil. BJS out performed most of its peers but if the sector turns lower we expect the stock to follow. If you want to buy today's bounce then consider using a tight stop near $30.50 or even near $30.75. Our initial target is the $33.00-34.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $52 target.

Picked on May 28 at $30.45
Change since picked: + 0.95
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million

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Williams Cos. - WMB - close: 38.23 change: -0.94 stop: 37.95 *new*

I think it's time that readers start looking for the exits in WMB. The last few days has seen a deterioration in the stock's technical picture. We can now see bearish divergences between price and the MACD and the RSI. The overall trend is still positive but momentum is fading fast. We're upping our stop loss to $37.95 and if WMB doesn't bounce convincingly tomorrow we're going to drop it. Our target is the $42.00-42.50 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart points to $56.

Picked on May 22 at $38.40
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.7 million

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Wal-Mart - WMT - close: 59.11 change: +0.59 stop: 56.49

The relative strength in WMT remains impressive. Traders bought the dip at its 10-dma. The trend is still up but we're not suggesting new positions with the stock this close to resistance at $60.00. WMT has exceeded our first target at $59.00. The Point & Figure chart points to a $68 target. We have a second, more aggressive target at $62.00.

Picked on May 22 at $56.05 /1st target exceeded
Change since picked: + 3.06
Earnings Date 08/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Amer.Capital Strat. - ACAS - cls: 28.66 chg: -0.28 stop: 31.55*new*

The banks and brokers bounced today yet ACAS failed to participate. The stock broke down to a new four-month low. We are adjusting our stop loss to $31.55. We are aiming for the January 2008 lows so our target is the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22 target. FYI: It is important for readers to note that ACAS has above average short interest. A lot of investors have seen the trend and they're piling on. The most recent data listed short interest at 15.5% of the 199-million share float. That is more than a week's worth of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on June 08 at $30.95
Change since picked: - 2.29
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Allstate - ALL - close: 49.78 change: +0.47 stop: 51.51

We do not see any changes from our Wednesday comments on ALL. Today's bounce looks like another entry point for shorts. We're suggesting a stop loss at $51.51 but more conservative traders might want to put theirs near $51.00 instead. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 zone.

Picked on June 11 at $49.31
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

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Darden Rest. - DRI - close: 31.49 change: +0.75 stop: 34.55

DRI added more than 2.4% today. The intraday high was $32.21 so we're still waiting. Our suggested entry point to short it is the $32.50-33.50 zone. If triggered we have two targets. Our first target is $30.10. Our second target is $27.75.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 06/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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Kraft Inc. - KFT - close: 30.80 change: +0.02 stop: 31.85

KFT under performed the market today but that doesn't mean it won't see an oversold bounce. We're suggesting shorts right now but if you're patient we might get a better entry point on a bounce in the $31.25-31.50 zone. Look for the $31.50 mark to act as overhead resistance. Our target is $29.00. Our time frame is three or four weeks.

Picked on June 11 at $30.78
Change since picked: + 0.02
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.8 million

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Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 32.87 change: +0.35 stop: 34.87

It's taken about three weeks and PAYX has fallen more than 5% for us. While the trend remains negative we are starting to worry about an oversold bounce. Readers may want to do a little profit taking and take some money off the table. We're not suggesting new positions in PAYX at this time. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 5% of the 320 million-share float. That's several days worth of short interest.

Picked on May 22 at $34.87
Change since picked: - 2.00
Earnings Date 06/25/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Patterson Cos. - PDCO - close: 32.98 change: +0.53 stop: 34.05 *new*

It was a mixed day for the healthcare sector. PDCO rebounded to a 1.6% gain. A failed rally near $33.50 can be used as a new entry point. We're adjusting our stop loss to $34.05. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $28 target. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at about 11% of the 98 million-share float. That is a relatively high degree of short interest for this stock.

Picked on June 03 at $33.42
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 08/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Uranium Resources - URRE - close: 2.69 chg: -0.31 stop: 2.89

Ouch! The sell-off in URRE is picking up speed. The stock lost more than 10% today and broke down under its trendline of lower lows. If there was a spot to consider picking a bottom it would have been Tuesday's bounce from its trendline. That bounce has obviously failed. Next stop? Who knows. The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $1.00 target. Maybe we can look for a bounce around $1. URRE hit our stop loss at $2.89 today.

Picked on June 10 at $ 3.26 /stopped out 2.89
Change since picked: - 0.57
Earnings Date 08/04/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 393 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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