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Long Play Updates

Adaptec - ADPT - close: 3.26 change: +0.05 stop: 3.17 *new*

ADPT lives to see another day. We were prepared to drop it but the stock rallied on Friday adding more than 1.5%. Our biggest complaint would be volume, which was very low and should be interpreted as a negative development. We are upping our stop loss to $3.17. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.
We are adjusting our first target to $3.50 and putting a secondary, more aggressive target at $3.70. The stock can be somewhat volatile so we do consider this a higher-risk play. Our time frame is several weeks. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at more than 7% of the 118 million-share float. Based on ADPT's average daily volume that is a lot of short interest and the stock could see a short squeeze.

Picked on May 28 at $ 3.25
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 559 thousand

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BJ Services - BJS - close: 31.69 change: +0.34 stop: 30.45 *new*

BJS rallied just over one percent, which wasn't much better than the gain in the OSX oil services index. The trend is bullish and if you buy this bounce make sure you have a tight stop. We're adjusting our stop to $30.45. This could be a volatile week in the energy stocks as crude oil endures both an options expiration and a futures expiration. Our initial target is the $33.00-34.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $52 target.

Picked on May 28 at $30.45
Change since picked: + 1.29
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million

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BPZ Resources - BZP - close: 26.10 change: +0.57 stop: 22.99 *new*

Target achieved. BZP hit $27.54 intraday. Yet the trading action in BZP on Friday is worrisome. The stock rallied to new highs but pulled back sharply. This looks like a short-term top. We would wait for a pull back before considering new positions. Broken resistance near $25.00 should be new support. Wait for a dip near $25.00 or even $24.50 before jumping in. We're upping our stop loss to $22.99. The latest data put short interest at about 10% of the float so BZP could see more of a short squeeze here. We have two targets. They are $27.50 and $29.90. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $40 target.

Picked on June 12 at $25.53 / 1st target hit $27.50
Change since picked: + 0.57
Earnings Date 08/02/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 883 thousand

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Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - close: 35.75 change: +1.18 stop 33.65

CTSH delivered right on time with a 3.4% rally on Friday. We don't see any changes from our Thursday comments. More conservative traders might want to inch up their stops a bit. The stock looks ready to fill the gap from last November. Our target is the $38.00 mark. The P&F chart is much more bullish with a $49 target. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 12 at $34.57
Change since picked: + 1.18
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.8 million

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McDonald's - MCD - close: 59.95 chg: +0.61 stop: 58.49

Short-term technical indicators are improving and the MACD indicator has produced a new buy signal. We would still consider new positions here near $60.00 or on a dip near $59.50. MCD has produced a bullish breakout from a wedge pattern (see chart). There is obvious resistance near $61.50 but we're going to aim closer to the December 2007 highs. Our target is $63.00.

Picked on June 12 at $59.34
Change since picked: + 0.61
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.6 million

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Williams Cos. - WMB - close: 38.78 change: +0.55 stop: 37.95

Traders bought the dip in WMB again and the stock looks ready to rise. Our biggest concern is natural gas, which looks very overbought and due for a correction. This could be a very volatile week for the energy sector as oil faces options and futures expiration. The trend is bullish but I hesitate to open new positions. Our target is the $42.00-42.50 zone. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart points to $56.

Picked on May 22 at $38.40
Change since picked: + 0.38
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.7 million

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Wal-Mart - WMT - close: 59.18 change: +0.07 stop: 57.75 *new*

There is no real change from our previous comments on WMT. The stock's trend is still bullish although momentum has faded quite a bit during the seven-day sideways consolidation. The coiling move under $60.00 suggest WMT is building up steam for a breakout higher. Yet in contrast there is a bearish divergence between price and its MACD indicator. Our stop loss is now $57.75. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. WMT has exceeded our first target at $59.00. The Point & Figure chart points to a $68 target. We have a second, more aggressive target at $62.00.

Picked on May 22 at $56.05 /1st target exceeded
Change since picked: + 3.13
Earnings Date 08/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Amer.Capital Strat. - ACAS - cls: 29.15 chg: +0.49 stop: 31.55

The widespread market rally inspired a 1.7% bounce in ACAS. The stock should find resistance in the $30.00-31.00 zone. Wait for a failed rally before considering new shorts. We are aiming for the January 2008 lows so our target is the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22 target. FYI: It is important for readers to note that ACAS has above average short interest. A lot of investors have seen the trend and they're piling on. The most recent data listed short interest at 15.5% of the 199-million share float. That is more than a week's worth of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on June 08 at $30.95
Change since picked: - 1.80
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Allstate - ALL - close: 49.89 change: +0.11 stop: 51.51

ALL delivered a minor bounce today. If the stock reaches $50.40-50.50 readers can use it as a new entry point for shorts. We're suggesting a stop loss at $51.51 but more conservative traders might want to put theirs near $51.00 instead. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 zone.

Picked on June 11 at $49.31
Change since picked: + 0.58
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

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Darden Rest. - DRI - close: 32.47 change: +0.98 stop: 34.55

DRI finally bounced. The stock gapped open at $32.22 and hit $33.20 intraday. We were suggesting a trigger to short DRI in the $32.50-33.50 zone. If you did not open positions yet then wait. It looks like DRI is going to bounce again and we might get another entry point near $33.50 on Monday. We have two targets. Our first target is $30.10. Our second target is $27.75.

Picked on June 13 at $32.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.03
Earnings Date 06/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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Kraft Inc. - KFT - close: 31.00 change: +0.20 stop: 31.85

There is no change from our Thursday comments on KFT. The stock broke down under support on Wednesday but we are expecting an oversold bounce. Look for a move into the $31.25-31.50 zone as a new entry point for bearish positions. Our target is $29.00. Our time frame is three or four weeks.

Picked on June 11 at $30.78
Change since picked: + 0.22
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.8 million

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Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 33.65 change: +0.78 stop: 34.87

We are urging some caution on PAYX. We've been suggesting that readers do some profit taking. PAYX has produced a real bounce and broken through its 10-dma. At this point odds are good that PAYX will reach the $34.00-34.50 region. Wait for the bounce to roll over before considering new shorts. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 5% of the 320 million-share float. That's several days worth of short interest.

Picked on May 22 at $34.87
Change since picked: - 1.22
Earnings Date 06/25/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Patterson Cos. - PDCO - close: 32.79 change: -0.19 stop: 34.05

PDCO continues to under perform both its peers in the healthcare sector and the broader market. The stock bounced from its lows for the week. What was interesting on Friday was the big volume, which came in more than double the norm. We didn't see any news that might explain the volume. At this time we would expect the bounce to continue. Wait for a failed rally near $33.50 before considering new shorts. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $28 target. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at about 11% of the 98 million-share float. That is a relatively high degree of short interest for this stock.

Picked on June 03 at $33.42
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 08/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Closed Long Plays

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Closed Short Plays

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