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Long Play Updates

Adaptec - ADPT - close: 3.29 change: -0.01 stop: 3.19 *new*

Traders continue to buy the dips in ADPT. They did it again at $3.20 this morning, near ADPT's 200-dma. While the trend is still up we remain very cautious here. In reaction we're upping our stop loss to $3.19. Our first target is $3.50. Our secondary, more aggressive target is $3.70. The stock can be somewhat volatile so we do consider this a higher-risk play. Our time frame is several weeks. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at more than 7% of the 118 million-share float. Based on ADPT's average daily volume that is a lot of short interest and the stock could see a short squeeze.

Picked on May 28 at $ 3.25
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 559 thousand

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BJ Services - BJS - close: 32.43 change: +0.38 stop: 30.45

Oil and energy stocks continued to out perform. BJS added more than 1% and is challenging its earlier June highs. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. This could be a volatile week in the energy stocks as crude oil endures both an options expiration and a futures expiration. Our initial target is the $33.00-34.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $52 target.

Picked on May 28 at $30.45
Change since picked: + 2.03
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million

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BPZ Resources - BZP - close: 27.38 change: +0.15 stop: 22.99

BZP tagged another high today. The stock looks short-term overbought so wait for a dip if you are looking for an entry point. The latest data put short interest at about 10% of the float so BZP could see more of a short squeeze here. We have two targets. They are $27.50 and $29.90. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $40 target.

Picked on June 12 at $25.53 / 1st target hit $27.50
Change since picked: + 1.85
Earnings Date 08/02/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 883 thousand

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Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - close: 35.73 change: -0.08 stop 33.65

CTSH posted a minor loss on Tuesday. If you're looking for a new entry point wait for a dip or a bounce near $35.00 before jumping in. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop closer to $34.00 or $34.50. Our target is the $38.00 mark. The P&F chart is much more bullish with a $49 target. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 12 at $34.57
Change since picked: + 1.36
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.8 million

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SLM Corp. - SLM - close: 24.49 change: -0.21 stop: 21.75

The rally in SLM stalled a bit today. We would expect a dip back toward $24.00, which should be new support. Wait for the dip. Our target is the $28.00-29.00 range or the 200-dma, whichever one SLM hits first. We are adjusting the stop loss to $21.75.

Picked on June 16 at $24.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.24
Earnings Date 07/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.1 million

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 39.33 change: -0.02 stop: 36.49

Ouch! STLD gapped open higher at $40.17 and then reversed lower. Shares ended the day with a fractional loss. Unfortunately, the action today is negative and looks like a bull trap and failed rally. We were triggered at the open. At this time we would expect a dip back toward the $38.00 region. If you don't want to endure that dip then exit now and wait for the next entry point. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July earnings report. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.

Picked on June 17 at $40.17 *triggered/gap open entry
Change since picked: - 0.84
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.6 million

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Wal-Mart - WMT - close: 58.69 change: -0.62 stop: 57.75

It's not looking good for Wal-Mart. Momentum is fading fast and shares look like they're ready to dip toward $58.00 at a minimum and potentially toward the 50-dma near $57.20. We've been suggesting that readers take profits for days now. WMT has exceeded our first target at $59.00. The Point & Figure chart points to a $68 target. We have a second, more aggressive target at $62.00.

Picked on May 22 at $56.05 /1st target exceeded
Change since picked: + 2.64
Earnings Date 08/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Amer.Capital Strat. - ACAS - cls: 28.39 chg: -0.82 stop: 31.55

Weakness in financials pushed ACAS to a 2.8% loss. The stock produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We are aiming for the January 2008 lows so our target is the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22 target. FYI: It is important for readers to note that ACAS has above average short interest. A lot of investors have seen the trend and they're piling on. The most recent data listed short interest at 15.5% of the 199-million share float. That is more than a week's worth of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on June 08 at $30.95
Change since picked: - 2.56
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Allstate - ALL - close: 49.38 change: -0.47 stop: 51.51

ALL is rolling over inside its short-term bearish channel. This looks like another entry point for shorts. We're suggesting a stop loss at $51.51 but more conservative traders might want to put theirs near $51.00 instead. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 zone. FYI: In the news today ALL announced it was buying Partnership Marketing Group, which is a roadside assistance company and part of General Electric (GE).

Picked on June 11 at $49.31
Change since picked: + 0.07
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

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Darden Rest. - DRI - close: 32.01 change: -1.12 stop: 34.55

Entry point alert! DRI's oversold bounce is fading. This looks like another entry point for shorts. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop toward $34.00 or $33.50. We have two targets. Our first target is $30.10. Our second target is $27.75.

Picked on June 13 at $32.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.49
Earnings Date 06/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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Kraft Inc. - KFT - close: 30.32 change: +0.05 stop: 31.85

This morning's oversold bounce in KFT failed at $30.73. The bearish trend remains intact but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is $29.00. FYI: After the bell tonight KFT announced plans to spin-off its Post cereal business. This might be the reason KFT was trading up around $30.50 in after hours.

Picked on June 11 at $30.78
Change since picked: - 0.46
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.8 million

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Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 33.04 change: -0.63 stop: 34.87

The bounce in PAYX is also fading. This looks like another entry point but readers might want to tighten their stops toward $34.00. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 5% of the 320 million-share float. That's several days worth of short interest.

Picked on May 22 at $34.87
Change since picked: - 1.83
Earnings Date 06/25/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Patterson Cos. - PDCO - close: 31.73 change: -0.61 stop: 33.65*new*

PDCO is breaking down to new relative lows. Shares fell through potential support near $32.00. We are adjusting our stop loss to $33.65. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $28 target. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at about 11% of the 98 million-share float. That is a relatively high degree of short interest for this stock.

Picked on June 03 at $33.42
Change since picked: - 1.68
Earnings Date 08/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

Closed Long Plays

McDonald's - MCD - close: 59.21 chg: -0.73 stop: 58.49

Abandon ship! MCD has reversed with a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We are suggesting readers exit now to limit any losses.

Picked on June 12 at $59.34
Change since picked: - 0.13
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.6 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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