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Long Play Updates

Adaptec - ADPT - close: 3.26 change: -0.03 stop: 3.19

We do not see any change from our previous comments on ADPT. The stock is holding up pretty well in the face of a two-day, widespread market decline. We remain wary and if the market continues lower we have to expect that ADPT will hit our stop loss and close the play. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $3.50. Our secondary, more aggressive target is $3.70. The stock can be somewhat volatile so we do consider this a higher-risk play. Our time frame is several weeks. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at more than 7% of the 118 million-share float. Based on ADPT's average daily volume that is a lot of short interest and the stock could see a short squeeze.

Picked on May 28 at $ 3.25
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 559 thousand

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BJ Services - BJS - close: 32.77 change: +0.34 stop: 30.45

Strength in crude oil helped the oil services powered higher. BJS hit a new six-week high today. The intraday high was $32.88. Our initial target is the $33.00-34.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $52 target.

Picked on May 28 at $30.45
Change since picked: + 2.37
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million

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BPZ Resources - BZP - close: 27.36 change: -0.02 stop: 24.45 *new*

There was an early attempt to take BZP lower following the early morning failed rally at $28.00. Yet traders bought the dip at $26.60. We are raising our stop loss to $24.45. We have two targets. They are $27.50 and $29.90. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $40 target.

Picked on June 12 at $25.53 / 1st target hit $27.50
Change since picked: + 1.83
Earnings Date 08/02/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 883 thousand

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Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - close: 35.73 change: -0.00 stop 33.90*new*

An analyst firm raised their price target on CTSH to $41 but the news failed to lift the share price. CTSH actually closed unchanged. Short-term technicals suggest that the momentum is fading. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We are raising our stop loss to $33.90. Our target is the $38.00 mark. The P&F chart is much more bullish with a $49 target. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 12 at $34.57
Change since picked: + 1.36
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.8 million

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SLM Corp. - SLM - close: 23.82 change: -0.67 stop: 21.75

Another down day for the financials turned into a 2.7% decline for SLM. Investors bought the dip near $23 and SLM was beginning to recover by the closing bell. This looks like a new entry point for longs. However, given the weak market environment we would hesitate to open new bullish positions unless you used a tight stop loss. Consider raising your stop closer to today's low (22.92). Our target is the $28.00-29.00 range or the 200-dma, whichever one SLM hits first. We are adjusting the stop loss to $21.75.

Picked on June 16 at $24.25 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.43
Earnings Date 07/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.1 million

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 39.16 change: -0.17 stop: 36.49

STLD fared okay against a 1% loss in the markets. Traders bought the dip near $38.50. The afternoon bounce looks like another entry point for bullish positions. More conservative traders may want to wait for another rise over $40.00 before opening positions. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July earnings report. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.

Picked on June 17 at $40.17 *triggered/gap open entry
Change since picked: - 1.01
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.6 million
 

Short Play Updates

Amer.Capital Strat. - ACAS - cls: 27.98 chg: -0.41 stop: 31.05*new*

Readers might want to do some profit taking with ACAS posting another decline. Financials posted another strong decline and ACAS followed. Shares lost 1.4% and closed at new relative lows. We are lowering our stop loss to $31.05. We are aiming for the January 2008 lows so our target is the $26.50-26.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $22 target. FYI: It is important for readers to note that ACAS has above average short interest. A lot of investors have seen the trend and they're piling on. The most recent data listed short interest at 15.5% of the 199-million share float. That is more than a week's worth of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on June 08 at $30.95
Change since picked: - 2.97
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Allstate - ALL - close: 48.80 change: -0.58 stop: 51.51

ALL plunged to the bottom of its short-term bearish channel. The stock is also flirting with a breakdown under its 100-dma. We're suggesting a stop loss at $51.51 but more conservative traders might want to put theirs near $51.00 instead. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 zone. FYI: In the news today ALL announced it was buying Partnership Marketing Group, which is a roadside assistance company and part of General Electric (GE).

Picked on June 11 at $49.31
Change since picked: - 0.51
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

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Darden Rest. - DRI - close: 31.40 change: -0.61 stop: 34.55

DRI continues to roll over. We continue to suggest new bearish positions. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop toward $34.00 or $33.50. We have two targets. Our first target is $30.10. Our second target is $27.75.

Picked on June 13 at $32.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 06/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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Kraft Inc. - KFT - close: 30.00 change: -0.32 stop: 31.85

KFT is still falling. The stock dropped to round-number support near $30.00 and just hovered there the rest of the day. We would expect another oversold bounce from here. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Wait and watch for a failed rally near $31.00. Our target is $29.00.

Picked on June 11 at $30.78
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.8 million

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Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 32.60 change: -0.44 stop: 34.87

PAYX is drifting back to its recent lows. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 5% of the 320 million-share float. That's several days worth of short interest.

Picked on May 22 at $34.87
Change since picked: - 2.27
Earnings Date 06/25/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Patterson Cos. - PDCO - close: 31.18 change: -0.55 stop: 33.65

PDCO under performed the market with a 1.7% loss on Wednesday. The selling is accelerating but shares might find short-term support near $31.00. Don't be surprised to see a bounce. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 zone. The P&F chart is bearish with a $28 target. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at about 11% of the 98 million-share float. That is a relatively high degree of short interest for this stock.

Picked on June 03 at $33.42
Change since picked: - 2.28
Earnings Date 08/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - close: 48.02 change: -0.52 stop: 49.26

The Qs rolled over right on cue. Now the QQQQ is under its 200-dma. We don't see any changes from our prior comments. Our target is $46.10. The $46.00 level and its 100-dma might be support.

Picked on June 17 at $48.54
Change since picked: - 0.52
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 133 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Wal-Mart - WMT - close: 57.67 change: -1.02 stop: 57.75

WMT finally broke out from its two-week trading range. Unfortunately, the breakout was down. Shares hit our stop loss at $57.75. While the play is closed keep an eye on WMT for possible support at its 50-dma. WMT had exceeded our early target at $59.00 several times.

Picked on May 22 at $56.05 /1st target exceeded
Change since picked: + 1.62
Earnings Date 08/14/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.1 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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