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Long Play Updates

Adaptec - ADPT - close: 3.29 change: -0.01 stop: 3.19

ADPT continues to hold its ground with traders buying dips at the $3.20 level all week long. Volume surged on Friday as the stock rebounded from the $3.20 level, which is bullish. While the trend remains bullish there is no denying that momentum has stalled. We would hesitate to open new positions until we see the market really bounce. Our first target is $3.50. Our secondary, more aggressive target is $3.70. The stock can be somewhat volatile so we do consider this a higher-risk play. Our time frame is several weeks. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at more than 7% of the 118 million-share float. Based on ADPT's average daily volume that is a lot of short interest and the stock could see a short squeeze.

Picked on May 28 at $ 3.25
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 559 thousand

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BPZ Resources - BZP - close: 25.53 change: -0.89 stop: 24.45

As the market extended its losses on Friday BZP crept closer and closer to broken resistance and what should be support near $25.00. The intraday low was $25.15. This pull back can be used as a new bullish entry point but more conservative traders may want to wait for signs of a bounce in the broader market first. BZP has already exceeded our first target at $27.50. Our secondary target is the $29.90 mark. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $40 target.

Picked on June 12 at $25.53 / 1st target hit $27.50
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/02/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 883 thousand

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Crown Castle Intl. - CCI - close: 41.40 chg: -1.07 stop: 39.95

The widespread market sell-off was too much for CCI to withstand and the stock lost more than 2% on Friday. The general trend is still bullish and we would use the pull back as a new entry point. However, if you're patient, we will probably get a better entry point on a dip into the $41.00-40.50 region if the markets slip again on Monday. The rising 50-dma near $40.40 should be technical support. The bull flag pattern is forecasting a $50 target. Coincidentally the Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $49 target. Our first target is $44.95, since the $45.00 level might be round-number resistance. Our second target is $47.25. We're putting our first stop at $39.95 but more conservative traders may want to consider a tighter stop loss.

Picked on June 18 at $42.02
Change since picked: - 0.62
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - close: 34.97 change: -1.74 stop 33.90

Ouch! CTSH just lost 4.7% thanks to a downgrade by Goldman Sachs from "buy" to "neutral". The stock gapped open lower at $35.31 on the news. This move also looks like a bearish reversal from potential resistance near $37.00. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. If you look at the weekly chart and see how CTSH has now produced a failed rally under the trendline of resistance we would seriously consider an early exit right here! If we don't see a bounce soon we're going to be looking for an early exit. Our target is the $38.00 mark. The P&F chart is much more bullish with a $49 target. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 12 at $34.57
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.8 million

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SLM Corp. - SLM - close: 22.84 change: -0.79 stop: 21.75

The rally in SLM has struggled all week after breaking out over resistance at $24.00. The move higher now looks like a possible bull trap pattern. We are expecting an oversold bounce in the market this week so watch for a rebound in SLM as a new entry point. More specifically we would watch for a dip near $22.00 as a possible entry point to buy the stock. Our target is the $28.00-29.00 range or the 200-dma, whichever one SLM hits first. We are adjusting the stop loss to $21.75.

Picked on June 16 at $24.25 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.41
Earnings Date 07/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.1 million

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 38.90 change: -1.77 stop: 36.49

Last week was a bumpy ride for STLD. The stock was up 3.7% on Thursday and down 4.3% on Friday. The breakout over resistance near $40.00 has failed twice now. The general trend is still up but the bears are putting up a fight. Or more realistically we have some wary buyers who are quick to jump out in spite of STLD's relative strength. At this time we would look for a pull back into the $38.50-37.50 zone. Use the dip as a new entry point to buy the stock. If you're not comfortable buying the dip then consider waiting for a new relative high. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July earnings report. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.

Picked on June 17 at $40.17 *triggered/gap open entry
Change since picked: - 1.27
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.6 million
 

Short Play Updates

Allstate - ALL - close: 47.89 change: -0.76 stop: 50.51 *new*

Thus far shares of ALL are cooperating. The stock sank to new relative lows on Friday. It's probably time to start looking for an oversold bounce soon. Look for resistance in the $49.50-50.00 zone. We're adjusting our stop loss to $50.51. Wait for a new failed rally before considering shorts again. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 zone.

Picked on June 11 at $49.31
Change since picked: - 1.42
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

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Darden Rest. - DRI - close: 31.64 change: -0.50 stop: 33.65 *new*

We are almost out of time with this bearish play for DRI. The company is due to report earnings on June 24th after the closing bell. If DRI does not hit our target at $30.10 before Tuesday afternoon we will end this play at the closing bell so we won't hold over the announcement. Don't be surprised if DRI just trades sideways the next two sessions as investors wait to hear the earnings report. We're not suggesting new positions and adjusting our stop loss to $33.65, just over last week's high.

Picked on June 13 at $32.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.86
Earnings Date 06/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 32.39 change: -0.87 stop: 33.91 *new*

We're running low on time for this bearish PAYX play. The company is due to report earnings on June 26th. That is this Thursday. With only four days left we're not suggesting new positions. Please note the new stop loss at $33.91. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 5% of the 320 million-share float. That's several days worth of short interest.

Picked on May 22 at $34.87
Change since picked: - 2.48
Earnings Date 06/26/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - close: 47.42 change: -1.32 stop: 49.26

Thursday's rally was quickly forgotten on Friday as the Qs plunged to a 2.7% decline. Shares fell back under the 50-dma and 200-dma to finally settle near its exponential 200-dma. The Qs mimic the NDX 100 index, which is suggesting more weakness ahead for the NASDAQ. Yet if the DJIA can bounce from its March lows the Qs may bounce as well. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is $46.10. The $46.00 level and its 100-dma might be support.

Picked on June 17 at $48.54
Change since picked: - 1.12
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 133 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Amer.Capital Strat. - ACAS - cls: 27.15 chg: -0.80 stop: 31.05

ACAS continued to sink on Friday and gave up another 2.8%. The stock closed near its lows for the session, which is normally bearish for the following session. We've been suggesting that readers take some money off the table and we've decided to follow through on that idea with an early exit. Lock in a gain now with ACAS down more than 12% from our picked price. More aggressive traders may want to just tighten their stops and let ACAS run. Our original target was the $26.50-26.00 region.

Picked on June 08 at $30.95 /early exit 27.15
Change since picked: - 3.80
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Kraft Inc. - KFT - close: 29.21 change: -0.43 stop: 31.25

Close enough for us! We can't claim KFT hit our target but it came awfully close. Shares dipped to $29.01 on Friday. Our target was $29.00. The stock is down several days in a row and looks very oversold and due for a rebound. We are suggesting that readers lock in a gain right here. Jump out now and we can always follow KFT for another entry point down the road.

Picked on June 11 at $30.78 *exiting early ***
Change since picked: - 1.57
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.8 million

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Patterson Cos. - PDCO - close: 30.80 change: -0.77 stop: 33.25

PDCO is another play that was close enough. We can't score another win in the target-achieved column but Friday's intraday low of $30.58 was close enough for us. Our target has been the $30.50-30.00 zone. Shares of PDCO now look very oversold and due for a bounce. It's entirely possible that PDCO will sink to the $30.00 level on Monday but we're suggesting readers exit now for a gain.

Picked on June 03 at $33.42 *early exit ***
Change since picked: - 2.62
Earnings Date 08/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
 

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