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Long Play Updates

BPZ Resources - BZP - close: 26.33 change: +0.80 stop: 24.45

Oil and energy stocks rallied thanks to strength in crude oil futures. BZP bounced from the $25 region. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments, which suggested buying the dip. BZP has already exceeded our first target at $27.50. Our secondary target is the $29.90 mark. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $40 target.

Picked on June 12 at $25.53 / 1st target hit $27.50
Change since picked: + 0.80
Earnings Date 08/02/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 883 thousand

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Citigroup - C - close: 18.55 change: -0.75 stop: 17.74

Our new bullish, buy the dip near support play in Citigroup is now open. The stock slipped to $18.44 intraday and closed with a 3.89% loss. Our suggested entry point was to buy the dip in the $18.50-18.00 zone. Citigroup made headlines today after announce layoffs for 10% of its investment banking staff. Now that the play is open our target is the $19.90 with a secondary, more aggressive target at $21.35. More conservative traders may want to wait for signs of a bounce first before initiating long positions.

Picked on June 23 at $18.50 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 07/18/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 83 million

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Crown Castle Intl. - CCI - close: 40.75 chg: -0.65 stop: 39.95

CCI continues to see profit taking and dipped to its simple 50-dma today before bouncing. The afternoon bounce was pretty weak today so readers may want to wait for a move back over $41.00 or $41.50 before considering new bullish positions. The bull flag pattern is forecasting a $50 target. Coincidentally the Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $49 target. Our first target is $44.95, since the $45.00 level might be round-number resistance. Our second target is $47.25. We're putting our first stop at $39.95 but more conservative traders may want to consider a tighter stop loss.

Picked on June 18 at $42.02
Change since picked: - 1.27
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - close: 35.12 change: +0.15 stop 33.90

There is no change from our weekend comments on CTSH. The stock, like most of the market, spent Monday churning sideways. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. If you look at the weekly chart and see how CTSH has now produced a failed rally under the trendline of resistance we would seriously consider an early exit right here! If we don't see a bounce soon we're going to be looking for an early exit. Our target is the $38.00 mark. The P&F chart is much more bullish with a $49 target. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 12 at $34.57
Change since picked: + 0.65
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.8 million

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DIAMONDS - DIA - close: 118.33 chg: +0.09 stop: 116.99

There is no change from our weekend comments on DIA. We are still waiting for a dip. Here is a copy of our comments:

We suspect that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) will bounce near its March lows. It will probably be a temporary bear-market rally but we want to try and capture a chunk of any rebound. We're suggesting readers buy the DIA in the $117.75-117.45 zone with a stop loss at $116.99. If triggered our target is the $121.50-122.00 zone.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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SPDRs - SPY - close: 131.45 chg: -0.13 stop: 129.19

There is no change from our weekend comments on SPY. We are still waiting for a dip. Here is a copy of our comments:

This trade in the SPY is the same strategy as the DIA it's just focused on the S&P 500. We're looking for a dip toward the $130 level early this week at which point the S&P should see an oversold bounce. Our suggested entry point is the $130.50-130.00 zone. We'll use a stop loss at $129.19. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop closer to $130.00. If triggered our target is the $134.00-134.50 zone.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 200 million

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 39.95 change: +1.05 stop: 36.49

Hmm... STLD displayed more relative strength than we expected. Friday's session looked pretty ugly but traders bought the dip at the 10-dma today. Volume was relatively low but then again it is summer and we're in front of a fed meeting. A rally over today's high (40.43) might be a new entry point for bullish positions but consider using a tighter stop loss! Another dip from here and it would look like a very short-term bearish head-and-shoulders pattern with a $36.70 target. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July earnings report. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.

Picked on June 17 at $40.17 *triggered/gap open entry
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.6 million
 

Short Play Updates

Allstate - ALL - close: 47.56 change: -0.33 stop: 50.51

Insurance stocks continued to fall but ALL fared better than its peers in the IUX insurance index (-2.5%). It's probably time to start looking for an oversold bounce soon. Look for resistance in the $49.50-50.00 zone. Wait for a new failed rally before considering shorts again. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 zone.

Picked on June 11 at $49.31
Change since picked: - 1.75
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

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Darden Rest. - DRI - close: 30.65 change: -0.99 stop: 32.65 *new*

Tomorrow is our last day for this play on DRI. The company reports earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday, June 24th. We do not want to hold over the announcement. Our target remains $30.10 but if DRI does not hit our target we will close the play at Tuesday's closing bell. Our new stop loss is $32.65.

Picked on June 13 at $32.50 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.85
Earnings Date 06/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 32.00 change: -0.39 stop: 33.91

PAYX continues to sink. Readers should consider exiting in the $31.35-31.00 zone. The company is due to report earnings on June 26th. That is this Thursday. With only a few days left we're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $31.00-30.00 zone. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 5% of the 320 million-share float. That's several days worth of short interest.

Picked on May 22 at $34.87
Change since picked: - 2.87
Earnings Date 06/26/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - close: 47.05 change: -0.37 stop: 49.26

The Qs broke down under the exponential 200-dma but failed to break short-term support near $47.00. If there was going to be a short-term bounce this is the place to look for it. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. If the DJIA rebounds from its March lows it could inspire a sharp bounce in the NDX too. Our target is $46.10. The $46.00 level and its 100-dma might be support.

Picked on June 17 at $48.54
Change since picked: - 1.49
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 133 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Adaptec - ADPT - close: 3.21 change: -0.08 stop: 3.19

Once again the bounce has failed and yet again ADPT is testing short-term support at $3.20. Unfortunately, the intraday low was $3.19. The play has been stopped out.

Picked on May 28 at $ 3.25
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 05/08/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 559 thousand

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SLM Corp. - SLM - close: 22.07 change: -0.77 stop: 21.75

Investors continue to crush the financials. The BKX banking index lost 2.9%, the BIX index lost 3% and the XBD index lost 2.3%. Shares of SLM under performed all of them with a 3.3% decline and that's after it pared its losses. The intraday low was $21.24 where it bounced from the 50-dma. Our stop loss was $21.75.

Picked on June 16 at $24.25 *stopped out 21.75
Change since picked: - 2.18
Earnings Date 07/17/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.1 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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