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Long Play Updates

UltraShort SmallCap - SDD - cls: 74.01 change: +2.80 stop: 68.25

As the markets, and the small cap indices, move lower the SDD crept higher. The SDD is designed to move twice the inverse of the S&P small cap index. If the index bounces 1.5% tomorrow then SDD should fall 3%. We would use any dip in the $70.50-70.00 zone as another entry point to get long this equity. We're suggesting a stop loss at $68.25. More conservative traders could try a stop closer to $69.50 or $70.00 instead. We have two targets. We would exit most of the position at $74.90. Our secondary, more aggressive target is at $79.50.

Picked on June 25 at $71.21
Change since picked: + 2.80
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 63 thousand


Companhia Siderurgica Nac. - SID - cls: 43.21 chg: -0.66 stop: 40.99

Perfect. We were looking for a dip today and SID provided one without plunging with the market today. Our plan was to buy a dip in the $42.75-42.00 zone. SID slipped to $42.50 before bouncing. Now that the play is open our target is the $45.95 mark. Our secondary target is the $49.50-50.00 zone.

Picked on June 26 at $42.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.46
Earnings Date 08/04/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million


Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 37.85 change: -1.92 stop: 36.49

It was an ugly day for the market and for STLD. The stock lost 4.8% and the MACD has produced a new sell signal on the daily chart. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Wait and watch for a bounce, probably around the $37.00 region. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July earnings report. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.

Picked on June 17 at $40.17 *triggered/gap open entry
Change since picked: - 2.32
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.6 million


TBS Intl. - TBSI - close: 37.05 change: -1.04 stop: 34.99

Excellent. TBSI lost 2.7% today but that's not the good news. Last night we suggested that patient traders wait for a pull back into the $37.00-36.50 zone as a new entry point. Today TBSI dipped to $36.52 intraday. We would buy this pull back but readers may want to wait for signs of a bounce first. We have two targets. Our first target is $42.50. Our second target is $44.90.

Picked on June 25 at $38.09
Change since picked: - 1.04
Earnings Date 04/04/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

Short Play Updates

Allstate - ALL - close: 46.72 change: -0.83 stop: 50.05 *new*

ALL is still slipping lower. The stock gave up 1.75% today. We are not suggesting new positions and expect an oversold bounce soon. Readers will want to give some serious thought to taking some money off the table right now. We are adjusting our stop loss to $50.05. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 zone.

Picked on June 11 at $49.31
Change since picked: - 2.59
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

Closed Long Plays

Citigroup - C - close: 17.67 change: -1.18 stop: 17.95

Goldman Sachs downgraded C to its "sell" list and the stock gapped open lower at $18.06. Shares quickly hit our stop loss at $17.95 closing the play. Volume was more than double the norm. The intraday low was $17.67, which is under the March 2008 low of $17.76. If you look at the chart it might be close to another oversold bounce.

Picked on June 23 at $18.50 */stopped out 17.95
Change since picked: - 0.83
Earnings Date 07/18/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 83 million


DIAMONDS - DIA - close: 114.67 chg: -3.24 stop: 116.99

Downgrades for both General Motors and Citigroup put a lot of pressure on the DJIA. The index actually gapped open lower and the DIA followed. DIA opened at $117.01 and quickly hit our stop loss at $116.99 closing the play. This is a new 52-week low and the index is very short-term oversold.

Picked on June 24 at $117.75 *stopped out 116.99
Change since picked: - 3.08
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million


SPDRs - SPY - close: 128.23 chg: -3.58 stop: 129.19

It was an ugly day for the markets. The S&P 500 broke down under what should have been support near 1300. The index might see a bounce from its trendline of lower lows but bears remain firmly in control. The SPY hit our stop loss at $129.19.

Picked on June 24 at $130.50 *stopped out 129.19
Change since picked: - 2.27
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 200 million

Closed Short Plays

Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 32.04 change: -0.05 stop: 33.41

We are suggesting an early exit in PAYX. If the stock doesn't want to participate in a very widespread and deep market decline then that's too much relative strength for us. The trend is still bearish but PAYX is oversold and due for a correction higher. We had been aiming for the $31.00-30.00 zone but adjusted that to $31.35 recently.

Picked on May 22 at $34.87 / early exit
Change since picked: - 2.83
Earnings Date 06/26/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million


PowerShares QQQ - QQQQ - close: 45.65 change: -1.92 stop: 49.05

Target exceeded. Tech stocks led the market lower today and the NDX index lost 4%. The Qs followed and plunged through potential support near $46.00 and its 100-dma. Our target was the $46.10 mark. Shares hit $45.64. Closing at its lows for the day is a bearish sign for the next trading day.

Picked on June 17 at $48.54 /target exceeded 45.64 low
Change since picked: - 2.89
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 133 million

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