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Long Play Updates

Bill Barrett - BBG - close: 59.41 chg: +0.40 stop: see details

Our new bullish play in BBG is now open. The stock rallied to $60.43 this morning. We were suggesting that readers buy the stock at $60.10 since a breakout over resistance at $60.00 would be bullish. Unfortunately, BBG has trimmed its gains and closed back under the $60.00 level. This could be a false breakout or a bull trap pattern. While we would still be tempted to buy the dip our stop loss is $57.45. Look for a dip or bounce in the $58.50-58.00 zone or wait for a new relative high as another entry point. Our target is $64.85. We're contemplating a secondary target closer to $70. The P&F chart is bullish with a $67 target.

Picked on June 30 at $60.10 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.69
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 758 thousand


E*trade Financial - ETFC - close: 3.14 change: +0.04 stop: 2.99

ETFC rallied this morning after a positive press release from the company where ETFC set its earnings announcement date for July 22nd. Here is an excerpt from the press release:

"The Company also announced that it continued to experience strong performance in its retail franchise during the second quarter, generating positive trends in net new customer accounts and asset flows. While the overall credit environment remains highly challenging, the strength and stability of the Companys retail business continues to generate earnings in the Bank to absorb credit losses in excess of managements current three-year forecast. The Company also affirmed that it continues to expect excess risk-based capital at the Bank (excess to the regulatory minimum threshold for well capitalized) to approach $1 billion by year end. Additionally, the Company completed actions during the second quarter that further reduced Parent Company debt by approximately $95.8 million, for total year-to-date reduction of $155.8 million."

We would still consider new positions here but expect a dip back to $3.10. Our short-term target is the $3.45 mark. This should be considered an aggressive, higher-risk play since we're effectively calling a short-term bottom and as we all know "calling bottoms" in the market or stocks can be hazardous.
FYI: Just because this is a low-dollar stock do not be tempted to increase the amount of capital you normally commit to a single trade.

Picked on June 29 at $ 3.10
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 07/22/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.4 million


FLIR Sys. - FLIR - close: 40.57 change: -0.81 stop: 37.95

We have to urge some caution on FLIR. The trading in the stock today was short-term bearish. Shares produced a failed rally at the $42.00 level. We would expect a dip back to the $39.65-39.00 zone at a minimum. Wait for the dip and use it or a bounce there as a new entry point for bullish positions. Overall we don't see any additional changes from our weekend comments. FLIR could see a continuation of the short-squeeze. The latest data listed short interest at more than 13% of the 130-million share float. That's about two weeks worth of short interest (granted the bears could have covered several days worth on Friday). We are suggesting long positions here but would prefer to buy a dip near the $40.00 level. Our target is the $44.95 mark (for now). The P&F chart points to a $73 target.

Picked on June 29 at $41.38
Change since picked: - 0.81
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million


Masimo Corp. - MASI - close: 34.35 chg: -0.51 stop: 32.95

There is no change from our weekend comments on MASI. We are still waiting for a breakout over $35.00. The MACD is nearing a new buy signal. The P&F chart is already positive with a $56 target. If MASI can trade over $36.00 it will produce a new P&F triple-top breakout buy signal. We are suggesting that readers use a trigger to buy MASI at $35.65, which would be above the May peak. More aggressive traders might want to jump the gun early on a move over $35.10. If triggered at $35.65 our target is the $39.95 mark. More aggressive traders could aim for the highs near $42.00 but we do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 461 thousand


UltraShort SmallCap - SDD - cls: 76.31 chg: +1.42 stop: 69.90*new*

The SDD is extending its gains. This ultra-short ETF added another 1.89%. If you haven't taken any profits yet we would do so now. We are adjusting the stop loss to $69.90. SDD has already surpassed our first target at $74.90. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We have two targets. Our secondary, more aggressive target is at $79.50.

Picked on June 25 at $71.21 *1st target achieved
Change since picked: + 5.10
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 63 thousand


Companhia Siderurgica Nac. - SID - cls: 44.41 chg: +0.70 stop: 40.99

SID added another 1.6%. Shares are testing potential short-term resistance at $45.00. Don't be surprised to see another dip back toward $43.75-43.25 again. Readers can use a pull back into that area as a new bullish entry point. Keep a tight stop loss! We have two targets. our first target is the $45.95 mark. Our secondary target is the $49.50-50.00 zone.

Picked on June 26 at $42.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.66
Earnings Date 08/04/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million


Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 39.07 change: +0.66 stop: 36.95

STLD out performed the markets today after some positive analyst comments this morning on the rising price of steel and a tight market. Shares of STLD added 1.9% but failed under the $40.00 level. This might be a bearish failed rally or it might be part of a short-term bull flag pattern. We are still cautious on the stock. Wait for a new rise over $40.00 before considering new positions. You may want to raise your stop toward Thursday's low of $37.35. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July earnings report. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.

Picked on June 17 at $40.17 *triggered/gap open entry
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.6 million


TBS Intl. - TBSI - close: 39.95 change: +1.04 stop: 35.75 *new*

TBSI rallied again adding more than 2.6% and challenging resistance at its simple 200-dma. If TBSI provides another dip back to the $39.00-38.50 zone we would use it as an entry point. Today we're raising the stop loss to $35.75, under Friday's low. We have two targets. Our first target is $42.50. Our second target is $44.90.

Picked on June 25 at $38.09
Change since picked: + 1.86
Earnings Date 04/04/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million


Union Drilling - UDRL - close: 21.68 chg: -0.06 stop: 20.65

Another new high in crude oil intraday helped fuel a rally to $22.28 in UDRL. The stock reversed just as oil gave up its intraday gains. This move is very short-term bearish and we'd look for a dip back to $21.20-21.00 as a new bullish entry point. We're suggesting a tight stop loss at $20.65. Our target is the $23.90 mark. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $30 target.

Picked on June 29 at $21.74
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 187 thousand

Short Play Updates


Closed Long Plays


Closed Short Plays

Allstate - ALL - close: 45.59 change: -0.93 stop: 49.31

Target achieved. Insurance stocks really under performed today. The IUX index lost 2.65%. Shares of ALL closed with a 2% loss. The stock hit an intraday low of $45.49. We recently changed our exit target to $45.55. ALL is very short-term oversold and due for a bounce.

Picked on June 11 at $49.31 *target exceeded 45.55
Change since picked: - 3.72
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.9 million

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