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In Play Updates and Reviews

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Long Play Updates

Best Buy - BBY - close: 39.65 chg: -0.29 stop: 38.49

Believe it or not but BBY held up pretty well today. Shares only lost 0.7% versus a 1.8% drop in the S&P 500 and a 2.3% drop in the NASDAQ Composite. The only real news today was an announcement that Blockbuster was dropping their bid for BBY's rival Circuit City. We do want to point out that BBY failed twice near $40.50 today and this is short-term bearish. We would expect a retest of the lows near $38.70. Wait for signs of a bounce before considering new positions. Our short-term target is $42.85. We will look for a failed rally in the $43.00-44.00 zone as a potential entry point to launch bearish positions.

Picked on July 01 at $39.94
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 09/18/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.6 million


E*trade Financial - ETFC - close: 3.23 change: +0.04 stop: 2.99

ETFC almost hit our target today. The stock rallied to $3.42 this morning before paring its gains. Our short-term target was $3.45. Today's reversal near its 10-dma is bearish and more conservative traders will want to consider an early exit to avoid or limit any losses. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on June 29 at $ 3.10
Change since picked: + 0.13
Earnings Date 07/22/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17.4 million


FLIR Sys. - FLIR - close: 42.64 change: -0.44 stop: 38.95

FLIR endured the market weakness relatively well. Shares spent the day moving sideways. Don't be surprised to see it dip back toward the rising 10-dma near $40.50. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $44.95 mark. The P&F chart points to a $73 target.

Picked on June 29 at $41.38
Change since picked: + 1.26
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million


Masimo Corp. - MASI - close: 34.18 chg: -0.24 stop: 32.95

MASI seems blissfully unaware of the market's widespread weakness today. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. The P&F chart is already positive with a $56 target. If MASI can trade over $36.00 it will produce a new P&F triple-top breakout buy signal. We are suggesting that readers use a trigger to buy MASI at $35.65, which would be above the May peak. More aggressive traders might want to jump the gun early on a move over $35.10. If triggered at $35.65 our target is the $39.95 mark. More aggressive traders could aim for the highs near $42.00 but we do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 461 thousand


AT&T - T - close: 32.89 change: -0.41 stop: 32.49

The oversold bounce in T is failing. Bulls should remain on the defensive. We're not suggesting new bullish positions until we see a new rise over $33.50. Our target is the $36.00-36.50 zone. This is a high-risk play as we speculate on a short-term bottom on T.

Picked on June 30 at $33.69
Change since picked: - 0.80
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 24.4 million

Short Play Updates


Closed Long Plays

Bill Barrett - BBG - close: 56.13 chg: -4.16 stop: 57.45

The market was sick today. Its illness was "sell the winners". Any sector or stock that had been doing relatively well was suddenly a target for selling and the market sold them hard! You could call this window "undressing" now that the end of the quarter has passed. Shares of BBG plunged almost 6.9% and hit our stop loss at $57.45. The long-term trend is still intact for now but who knows how long it will last.

Picked on June 30 at $60.10 *stopped out 57.45
Change since picked: - 3.97
Earnings Date 08/05/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 758 thousand


IAC/Interactive - IACI - close: 18.42 change: -0.88 stop: 18.65

Tech stocks were some of the worst performers today. The NASDAQ lost 2.3%. Shares of IACI out did its peers with a 4.5% decline and a new low. Shares hit our stop loss at $18.65.

Picked on July 01 at $19.30 /stopped out 18.65
Change since picked: - 0.88
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million


Companhia Siderurgica Nac. - SID - cls: 39.20 chg: -3.53 stop: 40.99

Foreign steel makers were not immune to the carnage inflicted on metal and iron stocks here in the U.S. Shares of SID lost more than 8.2% and crashed through support at its 100-dma and $40.00 mark. Our stop loss was at $40.99. The strange thing was the lack of news behind the sector-wide decline in steel. SID was another victim of the "sell the winners" fever today.

Picked on June 26 at $42.75 */stopped out 40.99
Change since picked: - 3.55
Earnings Date 08/04/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million


Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 34.21 change: -3.88 stop: 36.95

STLD must have been a big target for window dressing because it was undressed in a hurry today. The stock crashed to a 10.2% decline on strong volume. Shares broke down through potential support at the 50-dma, $35.00 mark and the 100-dma. Our stop loss was at $36.95.

Picked on June 17 at $40.17 *stopped out/gap open entry
Change since picked: - 5.96
Earnings Date 07/21/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.6 million


TBS Intl. - TBSI - close: 35.35 change: -2.49 stop: 35.75

Some of the sectors hardest hit today were steel stocks, coal stocks, and shipping stocks. We didn't see any specific news behind the weakness in the shipping stocks. Shares of TBSI lost 6.3% and broke down under its rising trendline of support that has held up so well until today. Our stop loss was at $35.75.

Picked on June 25 at $38.09 /stopped out 35.75
Change since picked: - 2.74
Earnings Date 04/04/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million


Union Drilling - UDRL - close: 20.47 chg: -0.78 stop: 20.65

Oil service stocks were slammed lower today in what appears to be some window "undressing" by fund managers. A new record high in crude oil was not enough to lift the oil service stocks. Shares of UDRL lost 3.4% and hit our stop loss at $20.65.

Picked on June 29 at $21.74 /stopped out 20.65
Change since picked: - 1.27
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 187 thousand

Closed Short Plays


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