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Long Play Updates

FLIR Sys. - FLIR - close: 42.00 change: -0.55 stop: 39.95 *new*

It was a real debate tonight on whether or not to keep FLIR. The stock's trend is bullish and it has a consistent trendline of support. Yet the short-term action today looks bearish and we could see a dip back toward the $40.00 region. The MACD on the daily chart is turning negative and has produced a bearish divergence. I strongly suggest that more conservative traders just exit early right now instead of seeing this turn into a potential loss. We're also adjusting our stop loss to $39.95. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $44.95 mark. The P&F chart points to a $73 target. We do not want to hold over the July 24th earnings report.

Picked on June 29 at $41.38
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Garmin - GRMN - close: 42.05 chg: -0.61 stop: 41.49

There is no change from our previous comments. GRMN is still stuck in a trading range. We would continue to buy dips in the $42.00-41.75 zone. However, more conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative high over $45.00 again. Our target is the $49.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the July 30th earnings report.

Picked on July 08 at $44.10
Change since picked: - 1.04
Earnings Date 07/30/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million

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Helmerich-Payne - HP - cls: 68.34 chg: +0.84 stop: 62.39

HP continues to out perform the market but the stock failed to breakout over $70.00 today. We have two targets. Our first target is $69.90. Our second target is $74.00. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on July 10 at $66.40
Change since picked: + 1.94
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Masimo Corp. - MASI - close: 35.56 chg: -1.16 stop: 34.45

Some of the quote services out there are going to tell you that the low in MASI today was $34.40. Not true! We checked the time and sales and the low for the day was $34.56. MASI never traded under $34.50. We're going to keep this stock on the newsletter. Now whether or not traders should hold on to it is another issue. We didn't see any news to account for the sudden sell-off. Buyers did step in to buy the dip and this afternoon bounce may prove to be a new entry point. However, the market environment remains very bearish and readers might just want to exit early anyway. The P&F chart is positive with a $56 target. Our target is the $39.95 mark. More aggressive traders could aim for the highs near $42.00 but we do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on July 09 at $35.65 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.09
Earnings Date 07/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 461 thousand

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Terra Inds. - TRA - close: 48.56 chg: +1.61 stop: 44.45 *new*

The fertilizer stocks were out performing today. TRA added more than 3%. We are raising our stop loss to $44.45. We have two targets. Our first target is $49.75. Our second target is $54.00. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on July 08 at $45.44
Change since picked: + 3.12
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.6 million

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Wyeth - WYE - close: 48.01 change: -0.29 stop: 46.39

WYE received some positive legal news today. A New Jersey judge dismissed two hormone therapy lawsuits against WYE. The stock failed to move on the news and looks set to trade lower. Readers may want to tighten their stops. Today's session came close to producing a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. This week WYE may have some news as the company presents at a conference on July 17th. Our target is the $52.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart has a $61 target.

Picked on July 08 at $48.31 *triggered
Change since picked: - 0.30
Earnings Date 07/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.7 million
 

Short Play Updates

ICICI Bank - IBN - close: 26.29 chg: -0.32 stop: 30.15

Shares of IBN did not see a big reaction to stress in the U.S. financial sector on Monday. However, the trend for both is lower. We are suggesting shorts under $27.00. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new relative low under $25.66 to open positions. Our target is the $21.50 mark. Our original play description suggested an alternative strategy of buying an out-of-the-money call as a little bit of insurance just in case the financial sector explodes higher on some unexpected news. We had suggested the August $30 call, which was $1.20 as of last Friday night. FYI: You might want to adjust your stop loss on the stock to $29.25 instead. It is up to you when you sell the call if IBN rallies. You could sell it when the value covers our loss on the stock or let it run and potentially make a profit if IBN breaks out over $30.00.

Picked on July 13 at $26.61
Change since picked: - 0.32
Earnings Date 07/20/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.6 million

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UBS Ag - UBS - close: 18.64 change: -0.85 stop: 20.75

The U.S. financial sector posted its biggest one-day launch in eight years following news that IndyMac bank closed its doors as a private institution over the weekend. The fact that the bounce in shares of FRE and FNM failed to hold today is also very bearish. Shares of UBS tried to rally but failed under the $20.00 mark. This is also another failed rally under its 10-dma. Our target is the $16.50 mark. Readers may already want to consider lowering their stop loss. Our original play description suggested that readers might want to buy a little insurance with an out-of-the-money call on UBS. It's not guaranteed to work but if the financial sector unexpectedly rebounds higher it could help protect us from serious losses. We had listed the July $22.50 call or the August $22.50 call with our suggestion to use the August $22.50 call. Our estimated cost was $0.80 ($80 per contract). You may have pay more or less for it depending on when you opened the trade.

Picked on July 13 at $19.49
Change since picked: - 0.85
Earnings Date 08/12/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.3 million
 

Closed Long Plays

DIAMONDS - DIA - close: 110.50 chg: -0.50 stop: 111.69

We are dropping the DIA as a bullish candidate. We did not see a panic sell-off this morning and yet the bounce failed to hold. The trend looks lower and more aggressive traders may want to consider bearish positions instead. The stock (actually an ETF) did not hit either of our suggested entry points to buy it.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx /never opened
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 15.7 million

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Olympic Steel - ZEUS - cls: 58.26 chg: -1.20 stop: 55.95

We are suggesting an early exit in ZEUS. The stock has produced another failed rally near $60.00. We'd rather exit now and wait for another entry point then see this turn into a loss.

Picked on July 08 at $56.56 /exiting early 58.26
Change since picked: + 1.70
Earnings Date 07/31/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 319 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

Big Lots - BIG - close: 27.13 change: -2.95 stop: 32.15

Wow! We thought BIG was poised to move but we didn't think it would drop to our target in one day. BIG actually traded higher this morning and hit $30.99 before reversing course. The stock then plunged toward our target at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Our target was $26.35 and BIG hit $26.39. That's close enough for us and while not a "win" we're suggesting readers exit now. Keep an eye on BIG for a failed rally under $30.00 as another potential entry point for shorts. If you did buy a call option as insurance it's up to you if you want to hang on to it or write it off. If BIG bounces sharply the option could recover some and you might be able to recoup some capital on your insurance expense.

Picked on July 13 at $30.08 / exiting early
Change since picked: - 2.95
Earnings Date 08/28/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million
 

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