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Long Play Updates

Cal-Maine Foods - CALM - close: 39.19 change: +0.21 stop: 37.95

Watch out! We may have just walked into a trap. For the second day in a row shares of CALM traded above resistance near $40.00 and today the stock hit a new all-time high. Unfortunately, shares gave back almost all of their gains. This sort of failed rally pattern is dangerous! The new relative high could have sparked a massive short squeeze but it failed to materialize. We are not suggesting new bullish positions until CALM trades above $41.00. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops. Our first target is $44.90. Our second target is $49.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $56 target. CALM has HUGE short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 92% of the 14.2 million-share float. A new high could spark another short squeeze.

Picked on August 04 at $40.75 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.56
Earnings Date 07/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

Short Play Updates

Broadcom - BRCM - close: 24.24 change: +0.25 stop: 25.55

Shares of BRCM managed to bounce after announcing a $1 billion stock buy back program. Yet the rally couldn't get past resistance near $25.00. We remain bearish. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. The last few days has seen BRCM consolidate sideways in what looks like a bear-flag pattern. More conservative traders may also want to consider waiting for a decline under $23.00 before initiating positions. A move under $23 should be a break down from the flag pattern. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $16 target. We have two targets. Our first target is $20.50. Our second target is $17.50. Expect the $20.00 zone to offer some round-number, psychological support.

Picked on August 03 at $23.99
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 07/22/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15.5 million


Capital Trust - CT - close: 14.38 change: -2.35 stop: 16.90*new*

Darn it! We thought CT was going to roll over but we were looking for a bounce first to open up new short positions. Our suggested entry point was $17.85. The stock never made it that high. Shares hit $16.88 and then plunged more than 14% to a new low. We are going to jump on the bandwagon here but we're adjusting the stop loss to $16.90, just above today's high. We have two targets. Target one is $12.55. Target two is $10.25. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with an $8.00 target.

Picked on August 04 at $14.38
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 278 thousand


Nordstrom - JWN - close: 28.19 chg: -0.73 stop: 30.51

JWN continues to look weak. We would consider new shorts right here. More cautious traders may want to wait for a drop under $28.00 to initiate positions. Don't forget that we do have some risk of a short squeeze. The latest data put short interest at 17% of JWN's 160-million share float. That's close to five days worth of short interest. Our short-term target is the $25.05 mark. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. We do not want to hold over the mid August earnings report. FYI: We're adjusting our stop loss to $30.51.

Picked on July 27 at $28.94
Change since picked: - 0.75
Earnings Date 08/14/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million

Closed Long Plays

Buckle Inc. - BKE - close: 48.22 change: -2.20 stop: 48.90

We didn't like how BKE performed on Friday so we raised our stop loss over the weekend. Shares of BKE under performed the market again on Monday with a sharp sell-off Monday morning. The midday bounce began to roll over and it looks like it's setting up for another decline tomorrow. BKE hit our new stop loss at $48.90 closing the play.

Picked on July 22 at $51.69 /stopped out 48.90
Change since picked: - 3.47
Earnings Date 08/21/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 456 thousand


iShares China 25 index - FXI - cls: 44.17 chg: -1.21 stop: 44.99

The FXI continues to weaken so we're dropping it as a bullish candidate. We had been waiting for a breakout over its trendline of lower highs but that may take longer than previously thought. Under $44.00 readers might want to consider bearish strategies. Expect support near $40.00. Our suggested trigger to buy the FXI was $47.65, which has not been hit.

Picked on July xx at $xx.xx *never opened
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 19.9 million


Masimo Corp. - MASI - close: 37.24 change: -0.56 stop: 36.75

It was our plan to exit today at the closing bell to avoid the risk of holding over MASI's earnings report, which was due out tonight. The company's results beat estimates by 5 cents and management actually guided higher. This sent the stock shooting past the $40.00 mark in after hours trading. Don't feel bad. The company could have missed and shares could have dropped to under $35 in after hours.

Picked on July 27 at $37.57 /exit early ahead of earnings
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 08/04/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 622 thousand


Terra Industries - TRA - cls: 45.94 chg: -7.97 stop: 49.95

It was an extremely painful day for the agriculture names. The combination of a widespread sell-off in agriculture commodities and a sharp down turn in natural gas and oil was a powerful one-two punch for the fertilizer stocks. Many of the fertilizer equities were down double-digits and TRA lost 14.7%, crashing through round-number support near $50.00. The stock hit our stop loss at $49.95. TRA had previous hit our early target at $56.00.

Picked on July 28 at $51.30 /stopped out 49.95
Change since picked: - 5.36
Earnings Date 07/24/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.8 million


United States Nat.Gas - UNG - cls: 40.53 chg: -3.28 stop: 40.99

A sharp, midday sell-off in oil pushed an already weak natural gas ETF toward the $40 zone. The UNG hit our stop loss at $40.99. If you were watching this happen on TV today we were told that floor traders were confused by the sudden weakness in oil and gas. We warned readers that this was an aggressive, higher-risk trade and that proved to be right.

Picked on July 30 at $43.39 /stopped out 40.99
Change since picked: - 2.86
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

Closed Short Plays


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