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Long Play Updates

BoCal-Maine Foods - CALM - close: 43.91 change: +1.24 stop: 39.75

Shares of CALM displayed relative strength on Monday with a 2.8% gain and a rally back toward the $44.00 level. More conservative traders may want to take some money off the table right here but it looks like the stock is poised to breakout toward $45 soon. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $44.90. Our second target is $49.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $56 target. CALM has HUGE short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 92% of the 14.2 million-share float. A new high could spark another short squeeze.

Picked on August 04 at $40.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 3.16
Earnings Date 07/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 42.55 chg: +0.80 stop: 39.45

Our new play in HOG is now open. The stock rallied to $43.86 intraday. Our suggested entry point to buy HOG was at $42.55, a new six-month high. We were worried when HOG, and the market, began to give back almost all of its gains but the very late afternoon bounce was encouraging. The volume was strong for HOG's 1.9% gain, which is bullish. We would still consider new positions here or readers could wait for a potential dip back toward $41.50-41.00. Our target is $47.50-50.00 zone. Our stop is $39.45. As expected HOG produced a new quadruple-top breakout buy signal on the Point & Figure chart and sports a new $64 price target. The latest data lists short interest at 12% of HOG's 232 million-share float.

Picked on August 11 at $42.55 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/16/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 26.44 chg: -0.36 stop: 25.99

Shares of JNPR rallied to the $27.00 level again but failed to breakout. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. Right now we're waiting for a breakout and we're suggesting a trigger to open positions at $27.55. There appears to be some resistance near $29.50 so we are listing two targets. Our first target is $29.45. Our second target, if the rally continues is $32.50. As always, we suggest you take some money off the table at the first target. If triggered at $27.55 we'll start with a stop loss at $25.99. That is not the best risk-reward ratio for a stop loss but JNPR can be somewhat volatile. You may want to use a tighter stop loss.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15.8 million

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 20.61 chg: +0.81 stop: 17.85

Hmm.... readers have a decision to make at least some of us do. Over the weekend we suggested a trigger to buy MNST on a dip back to $18.60-18.25. We suggested that more aggressive traders consider buying a breakout over $20.00 with a trigger at $20.25. MNST only dipped to $19.53 and then rallied to almost $21 and closed over round-number resistance at $20.00 and above technical resistance at the 50-dma. Shares are arguably short-term overbought from their recent lows near $16. If you didn't buy the breakout today the decision is do we buy it now? The share price movement is definitely bullish but I'm not willing to chase it. We're going to stick to our plan and wait for the correction although if MNST is really strong the $20.00 level should now be support. If we are triggered at $18.60 our target is the $21.75 mark.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Oriental Fncl. - OFG - cls: 19.81 chg: +0.53 stop: 18.35 *new*

Readers are going to want to consider an early exit here. OFG rallied to $19.81 and actually closed at its high for the day. The $20.00 level should be round-number, psychological resistance and that's why we set our exit target at $19.95. We are raising our stop loss to $18.35, just under technical support at the 10-dma. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher than our $19.95.

Picked on August 08 at $18.25 *triggered
Change since picked: + 1.56
Earnings Date 10/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 395 thousand
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Short Play Updates

Cincinnati Fincl. - CINF - cls: 28.47 chg: +0.25 stop: 28.35

CINF bounced toward last week's highs and then reversed. We are going to stick to our plan and wait for shares to roll over. We are suggesting readers consider shorts or bearish plays on a move under $27.00. Our official trigger is $26.99. If triggered we have two targets. Our first target is $25.05. Our second target is $24.00. We'll use a stop loss above today's high at $28.35.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Capital Trust - CT - close: 15.65 change: +0.11 stop: 16.60

CT tried to rally this morning and made it to $16.30 before fading. Volume was pretty low on today's session. This almost looks like a new entry point for shorts but we would wait for a decline under $15.00 to open new plays. The P&F chart is still bearish with an $8.00 target but the stock seems prone to short squeezes. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 28% of the small 19 million-share float. That definitely raises our risk for a short squeeze. We have two targets. Target one is $12.55. Target two is $10.25.

Picked on August 04 at $14.38
Change since picked: + 1.27
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 278 thousand

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Merrill Lynch - MER - close: 26.49 change: -0.38 stop: 28.55

MER bounced around the $26-28 range today and under performed its peers in the broker-dealer sector and financials in general. Readers may want to wait for a new move over $25.50 before opening new positions. We're also thinking about lowering the stop to $28.05 but not yet. We have two targets. Our first target is $22.50. Our second target is $20.25. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $7.00 target.

Picked on August 07 at $26.10
Change since picked: + 0.39
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 42.2 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Nordstrom - JWN - close: 31.86 chg: +2.27 stop: 30.16

Retail stocks soared on Monday and shorts rushed to cover when JWN broke out past the $30.00 level. The stock hit $33.40 intraday. Our stop loss was at $30.16. We were almost out of time for JWN with earnings coming up on August 14th.

Picked on July 27 at $28.94 /stopped out 30.16
Change since picked: + 2.92
Earnings Date 08/14/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.4 million
 

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