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Long Play Updates

Cal-Maine Foods - CALM - close: 43.03 change: -0.88 stop: 39.75

CALM held up reasonably well during Tuesday's market downturn. The stock bounced from its late afternoon low of $42.25. The trend is still bullish. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. More conservative traders may want to take some money off the table right here. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $44.90. Our second target is $49.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $56 target. CALM has HUGE short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 92% of the 14.2 million-share float. A new high could spark another short squeeze.

Picked on August 04 at $40.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 2.28
Earnings Date 07/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 41.41 chg: -1.14 stop: 39.45

HOG spent most of the day trading sideways above the $42.00 level before finally succumbing to the market's plunge lower in the afternoon. Yesterday we suggested readers look for a dip into the $41.50-41.00 zone as an entry point. We got that dip today. If you are the patient type then consider waiting to see if the dip continues toward $40.50-40.00. Our target is $47.50-50.00 zone. Our stop is $39.45. As expected HOG produced a new quadruple-top breakout buy signal on the Point & Figure chart and sports a new $64 price target. The latest data lists short interest at 12% of HOG's 232 million-share float.

Picked on August 11 at $42.55 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.14
Earnings Date 10/16/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 25.90 chg: -0.54 stop: 25.99

We are still in a wait-and-see mode with JNPR. We are waiting for the stock to breakout over resistance in the $27.00-27.50 zone. More aggressive traders might want to consider buying a bounce from its 100-dma near $25.15. We're going to stick to our plan with a suggested entry point at $27.55. We are listing two targets. Our first target is $29.45. Our second target, if the rally continues is $32.50. As always, we suggest you take some money off the table at the first target. If triggered at $27.55 we'll start with a stop loss at $25.99. That is not the best risk-reward ratio for a stop loss but JNPR can be somewhat volatile. You may want to use a tighter stop loss.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15.8 million

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 19.89 chg: -0.72 stop: 17.85

MNST gave back the majority of yesterday's gains and closed under the $20.00 level, which is short-term bearish. Currently we are suggesting that readers buy a dip into the $18.60-18.25 zone. We're thinking about adjusting that entry point to $19.10. If you do jump in around $19.00 consider inching up your stop loss. If we are triggered at $18.60 our target is the $21.75 mark.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Cincinnati Fincl. - CINF - cls: 27.77 chg: -0.70 stop: 28.35

Financial stocks continue to look vulnerable. The group got hammered today and CINF lost about 2.4%. The intraday low was only $27.61. More aggressive traders might want to jump in now with bearish positions. We are going to stick to our plan. Our official trigger is $26.99. If triggered we have two targets. Our first target is $25.05. Our second target is $24.00. We'll use a stop loss above today's high at $28.35.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Capital Trust - CT - close: 15.16 change: -0.49 stop: 16.60

CT gave up more than 3% today but considering how volatile the stock can be I'm surprised the loss wasn't bigger. Yesterday we suggested readers wait for another decline under $15.00 to open positions and we got that entry point today. The P&F chart is still bearish with an $8.00 target but the stock seems prone to short squeezes. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 28% of the small 19 million-share float. That definitely raises our risk for a short squeeze. We have two targets. Target one is $12.55. Target two is $10.25.

Picked on August 04 at $14.38
Change since picked: + 0.78
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 278 thousand

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Merrill Lynch - MER - close: 24.88 change: -1.26 stop: 28.01*new*

The broker-dealer stocks were hit hard today thanks to another round of fears regarding the credit crisis and a triple-downgrade for Goldman Sachs (GS). The XBD index lost more than 5%. Shares of MER gave up 4.8%. Yesterday we suggested another decline under $25.50 would be a new entry point for bearish positions. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $28.01. We have two targets. Our first target is $22.50. Our second target is $20.25. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $7.00 target.

Picked on August 07 at $26.10
Change since picked: - 1.22
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 42.2 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Oriental Fncl. - OFG - cls: 19.92 chg: +0.11 stop: 18.35

Target exceeded. OFG continued to show relative strength and bucked the down trend in financials. The stock hit $20.00 intraday. Our exit target was $19.95. The trend is still bullish but we'd look for a correction before considering new positions.

Picked on August 08 at $18.25 */target achieved $19.95
Change since picked: + 1.56
Earnings Date 10/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 395 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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