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Long Play Updates

Axsys Tech. - AXYS - cls: 76.67 change: +0.85 stop: 71.95

AXYS is off to a strong start. Shares almost hit our first target with today's spike higher. The stock traded to $79.69 before trimming its gains. The breakout from its consolidation pattern (yesterday) is bullish but you could easily argue that today's move looks like a bearish failed rally under round-number resistance at $80.00.
Don't be surprised if AXYS dips back to the $74.00 or $75.00 levels. Look for the dip or a bounce in this area as a new entry point to buy the stock. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss toward $72.50, which is close to Tuesday's low. We have two targets. Our first target is $79.95. Our second target is $84.00. Today's move over $76.00 has produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal on the Point & Figure chart. FYI: The most recent data available listed short interest at 8.8% of the small 9.1 million-share float.

Picked on August 12 at $75.82
Change since picked: + 0.85
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 207 thousand

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Cal-Maine Foods - CALM - close: 43.89 change: +0.86 stop: 39.75

All we needed was nine more cents! CALM traded to $44.81 this morning before pulling back. Shares were pinned under the $44.00 level for the rest of the day. The trend is still bullish and readers may want to tighten their stop loss. More conservative traders may want to take some money off the table right here. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $44.90. Our second target is $49.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $56 target. CALM has HUGE short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 92% of the 14.2 million-share float. A new high could spark another short squeeze.

Picked on August 04 at $40.75 *triggered
Change since picked: + 3.14
Earnings Date 07/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Esterline Tech. - ESL - close: 52.62 chg: +0.32 stop: 49.90

ESL provided another entry point on the dip to its simple 200-dma this morning. The stock rallied from its lows but failed to breakout over the 100-dma. We remain bullish here and do not see any changes from our Tuesday night comments. It will probably be a bumpy ride but we are aiming for the $57.00-60.00 zone. This is a short-term, two-week play. We do not want to hold over the August 28th earnings report. We know that our target is pretty aggressive given our time frame but the latest data put short interest at more than 9% of the small 29 million-share float. The stock could see a short squeeze ahead of earnings.

Picked on August 12 at $52.30
Change since picked: + 0.32
Earnings Date 08/28/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 352 thousand

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Graham Corp. - GHM - cls: 105.05 chg: -1.47 stop: 99.95

We warned readers that GHM was a volatile stock and shares spent the session bouncing around a $5.00 range. We remain bullish and would still consider new positions here. However, more conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss. Remember, this is an aggressive, higher-risk play and we do not see any changes from our Tuesday night comments. GHM remains a strong candidate for a short squeeze. This stock has an extremely small float of just 4.5 million shares. The short interest is over 10% of the float. Our target is $114.50.

Picked on August 12 at $106.52
Change since picked: - 1.47
Earnings Date 10/27/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 239 thousand

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Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 40.92 chg: -0.49 stop: 39.45

Previously we outlined our concerns about the struggles HOG is facing with a slowing consumer and tighter lending. Yet the stock looks like it's breaking out from a very significant bottom. Today's dip and bounce near $40.00 and its 200-dma looks like a new bullish entry point to buy the stock. If you're feeling cautious then consider a stop loss closer to today's low (39.84). We are leaving our stop at $39.45 for now. Our target is the $47.50-50.00 zone. The latest data lists short interest at 12% of HOG's 232 million-share float. The P&F chart is bullish with a new buy signal.

Picked on August 11 at $42.55 *triggered
Change since picked: - 1.63
Earnings Date 10/16/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 26.12 chg: +0.22 stop: 25.99

We do not see any changes from our prior comments on JNPR. More aggressive traders may want to consider buying today's bounce. We are sticking to our game plan and waiting for a breakout higher. Our suggested entry point is $27.55. We are listing two targets. Our first target is $29.45. Our second target is $32.50. As always, we suggest you take some money off the table at the first target. If triggered at $27.55 we'll start with a stop loss at $25.99. That is not the best risk-reward ratio for a stop loss but JNPR can be somewhat volatile. You may want to use a tighter stop loss.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15.8 million

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 19.90 chg: +0.01 stop: 17.85

I am tempted to buy the afternoon bounce in MNST today. Shares dipped to $19.45 and rebounded nicely into the closing bell. If you do buy this bounce then consider a tighter stop loss. You could even try a stop under today's low. I suspect MNST may see another dip so we're sticking to our current plan. The current entry zone to buy MNST is the $18.60-18.25 range. Our risk here by not buying MNST now is that we could miss the move but we'd rather be patient with our entry point. If we are triggered at $18.60 our target is the $21.75 mark.

Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.000
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million
 

Short Play Updates

Cincinnati Fincl. - CINF - cls: 27.46 chg: -0.31 stop: 28.35

Financials continue to struggle with ongoing worries over housing and the credit crisis. Shares of CINF dipped to an intraday low of $26.94 and that was enough to open the play. Our suggested trigger for bearish positions was $26.99. It looks like the afternoon rebound failed under the $28.00 level, which is a good sign for the bears. We have two targets. Our first target is $25.05. Our second target is $24.00.

Picked on August 13 at $26.99 *triggered
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 10/29/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million

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Capital Trust - CT - close: 14.90 change: -0.26 stop: 16.35*new*

The path of least resistance appears to be lower for CT but don't forget the stock is prone to sharp rebounds. We are adjusting our stop loss to $16.35. It remains a very wide and aggressive stop loss. The P&F chart is bearish with an $8.00 target. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 28% of the small 19 million-share float. That definitely raises our risk for a short squeeze. We have two targets. Target one is $12.55. Our second target is $10.25.

Picked on August 04 at $14.38
Change since picked: + 0.52
Earnings Date 07/29/08 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 278 thousand

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Merrill Lynch - MER - close: 25.60 change: +0.72 stop: 28.01

MER bounced from the $24.00 region today but the broker-dealer stocks continue to look vulnerable. A failed rally under $26.00 or $26.50 could be used as a new entry point for bearish positions. We have two targets. Our first target is $22.50. Our second target is $20.25. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $7.00 target.

Picked on August 07 at $26.10
Change since picked: - 0.50
Earnings Date 10/23/08 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 42.2 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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